March 5, 2012 - Romney Has Momentum In Ohio GOP Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Presidential Primary Too Close To Call Word format The Ohio Republican presidential primary remains too close to call, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the momentum, and 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters, to former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is a 10-point shift from a February 27 Ohio survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Santorum with a 36 - 29 percent lead. In this latest survey, men split with 33 percent for Santorum and 31 percent for Romney. Women back Romney 38 - 29 percent. Self-described conservatives, a strong base of Santorum support in earlier surveys, are split with 35 percent for Santorum and 33 percent for Romney. "To borrow from the book of Berra, Yogi that is: It's deja vu all over again for Gov. Mitt Romney. Just as he did in Florida and Michigan, Romney has erased a sizable deficit a week before the primary to grab the momentum in the final 24 hours," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. "A week ago, Quinnipiac had Sen. Santorum ahead by seven points, now it's Romney by three - a 10-point swing in seven days. The margin makes the Ohio race too close to call, but Romney is the one with the wind at his back." From March 2 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 753 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Gingrich 15% 16% 14% 18% 9% 19% 12% 21% 12% Romney 34 31 38 33 41 26 45 27 37 Santorum 31 33 29 35 20 40 29 40 28 Paul 12 16 8 9 19 8 9 8 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - - - - DK/NA 7 5 10 5 11 7 4 4 8 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 13% 16% 13% 16% 19% 15% 17% 16% 13% Romney 39 32 25 38 40 31 25 33 43 Santorum 36 28 34 30 28 24 33 36 30 Paul 8 15 23 9 4 21 17 10 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - 1 - - DK/NA 4 8 5 7 9 9 7 5 5 TREND: If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 05 Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 2012 Gingrich 15 17 17 20 Romney 34 31 29 29 Santorum 31 35 36 36 Paul 12 12 11 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 7 6 6 6 1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1 CAND CHOSEN Q1.... Tot NG MR RS Mind made up 69% 59% 68% 74% Might change 30 40 32 25 DK/NA 1 2 - 1 TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1 Mar 05 Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 2012 Mind made up 69 65 52 48 Might change 30 34 45 50 DK/NA 1 1 3 3 2. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 53% 55% 50% 59% 41% 62% 50% 73% 45% Unfavorable 38 35 40 33 48 28 43 22 44 Hvn't hrd enough 8 9 7 7 10 9 6 4 10 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 54% 53% 49% 57% 53% 39% 57% 60% 60% Unfavorable 38 37 36 39 38 48 36 32 34 Hvn't hrd enough 6 9 14 4 5 12 7 7 5 REFUSED 2 1 - - 4 1 1 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 05 Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 53 48 49 49 Unfavorable 38 38 36 34 Hvn't hrd enough 8 11 12 16 REFUSED 1 2 3 2 3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 53% 54% 51% 53% 56% 48% 61% 50% 54% Unfavorable 36 36 35 37 29 41 29 43 33 Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 10 7 15 9 8 6 11 REFUSED 2 1 4 2 1 3 3 1 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 60% 48% 44% 57% 57% 45% 45% 53% 64% Unfavorable 31 39 42 34 32 40 42 39 29 Hvn't hrd enough 7 10 14 6 7 11 10 8 7 REFUSED 1 3 - 3 5 4 3 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 05 Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 53 53 52 61 Unfavorable 36 34 32 25 Hvn't hrd enough 9 11 13 12 REFUSED 2 2 4 2 4. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 59% 59% 58% 64% 44% 71% 55% 78% 51% Unfavorable 26 27 25 23 35 16 31 14 31 Hvn't hrd enough 13 13 14 11 21 12 12 6 16 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 - 2 2 1 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 64% 56% 57% 59% 59% 46% 64% 66% 62% Unfavorable 23 28 27 25 29 38 20 22 24 Hvn't hrd enough 10 15 15 15 9 15 15 11 13 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 4 2 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 05 Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 59 57 59 62 Unfavorable 26 24 16 7 Hvn't hrd enough 13 17 24 31 REFUSED 2 2 1 - 5. Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 37% 41% 32% 34% 46% 31% 39% 37% 37% Unfavorable 40 40 40 45 30 43 40 49 37 Hvn't hrd enough 20 16 26 19 23 25 19 11 24 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 39% 36% 44% 37% 28% 37% 37% 37% 40% Unfavorable 42 40 33 45 43 33 42 45 39 Hvn't hrd enough 17 23 21 17 25 29 20 16 20 REFUSED 3 2 2 1 4 1 2 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Mar 05 Mar 02 Feb 27 Feb 15 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 37 32 32 36 Unfavorable 40 42 43 33 Hvn't hrd enough 20 24 24 29 REFUSED 2 3 1 3
