May 10, 2012 - Portman Doesn't Move Needle In Ohio Pres Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Mandel Narrows Gap With Brown In Senate Race Word format The presidential race in Ohio remains too close to call as President Barack Obama gets 45 percent to 44 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, with a 45 - 45 percent dead heat if the GOP adds home-state Sen. Rob Portman as Romney's running mate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Ohio's other U.S. Senator, Sherrod Brown, holds a 46 - 40 percent lead over State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger, compared to a 46 - 36 percent Brown lead in a March 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This is the first survey showing the race in single digits. The Romney-Portman v. Obama-Biden matchup compares to a February 15 survey in which Obama had 46 percent to Romney's 44 percent without running mates, moving to Obama- Biden at 47 percent to Romney-Portman at 43 percent. "Adding Sen. Rob Portman to the Romney ticket produces no measurable change, despite speculation about Portman's potential for helping Romney carry the key state of Ohio," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. "Republicans have never won the White House without Ohio and in 2004, for instance, George W. Bush won the state and re-election by 2 percent - so every little change is important." The gender gap remains substantial, with or without Portman: In an Obama-Romney matchup, men vote Republican 50 - 40 percent while women go Democratic 49 - 38 percent; Matching Romney and Portman against Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden leaves men at 51 - 40 percent Republican, with women at 49 - 41 percent Democratic. Interestingly, 59 percent of Ohio voters say they don't know enough about Portman to have an opinion of him, with 26 percent viewing him favorably and 14 percent unfavorably. Vice President Biden has a split 39 - 39 percent favorability. Romney gets a 35 - 37 percent favorability and Obama gets a 48 - 47 percent score. In the Obama-Biden v. Romney-Portman matchup, Republicans stay loyal 89 - 6 percent while Democrats go with their ticket 90 - 6 percent. Independent voters, the key bloc, go Republican 45 - 39 percent. Ohio voters give Obama a split 49 - 48 percent job approval. In the Senate race, Brown wins Democrats 85 - 5 percent, while Mandel wins Republicans 79 - 10 percent. Brown leads among independent voters 42 - 38 percent. Brown's 50 - 34 percent lead among women swamps Mandel's 46 - 41 percent margin with men. Brown sports a 41 - 30 percent favorability rating. Mandel has a 30 - 18 percent favorability, with 51 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. "Is Sen. Sherrod Brown hearing the footsteps of State Treasurer Josh Mandel?" Brown asked. "Ohio voters say 44 - 38 percent that Brown deserves another six years in the Senate, matching his six-point margin over Mandel, but short of the 50 percent any incumbent would like to have. "Meanwhile, voters are getting to know Mandel. In February, 71 percent didn't know enough about him to form an opinion. That 'don't know' number is now 51 percent." Brown gets a 46 - 33 percent job approval from voters, compared to 38 - 23 percent for Portman. From May 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,069 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk* Obama 45% 7% 89% 39% 40% 49% 39% 90% Romney 44 86 5 43 50 38 49 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 5 4 2 3 - DK/NA 7 5 4 10 5 10 7 8 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHold Obama 45% 36% 30% 43% 33% 44% 24% 44% 36% Romney 49 50 58 47 55 44 66 44 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 3 3 4 2 2 4 1 DK/NA 5 7 6 6 5 8 6 7 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Obama 47% 44% 49% 48% 46% 38% 45% 45% 44% Romney 46 42 36 40 46 54 45 41 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 4 3 1 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 6 8 9 7 5 5 7 7 8 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") OBAMA......... High Low May 10 May 03 Mar 28 Feb 15 Jan 18 Mar 28 Dec 08 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 Obama 45 44 47 46 44 47 42 Romney 44 42 41 44 42 41 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 1 3 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 DK/NA 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 2. Let's say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president and the Republican ticket is Mitt Romney for president and Rob Portman for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk* Obama/Biden 45% 6% 90% 39% 40% 49% 38% 91% Romney/Portman 45 89 6 45 51 41 51 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 5 4 1 3 - DK/NA 6 4 3 8 4 8 6 8 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHold Obama/Biden 45% 35% 32% 43% 33% 43% 22% 44% 38% Romney/Portman 50 52 60 49 56 47 68 47 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 2 2 4 1 3 2 1 DK/NA 4 7 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Obama/Biden 47% 44% 52% 47% 46% 38% 45% 46% 44% Romney/Portman 47 45 38 43 47 55 45 45 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 5 1 1 3 2 1 DK/NA 4 7 7 4 4 5 6 6 7 TREND: Let's say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president and the Republican ticket is Mitt Romney for president and Rob Portman for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote? May 10 Feb 15 2012 2012 Obama/Biden 45 47 Romney/Portman 45 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 DK/NA 6 7 3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 35% 69% 10% 31% 42% 30% Unfavorable 37 8 65 35 36 38 Hvn't hrd enough 24 21 23 28 20 29 REFUSED 4 2 2 6 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low May 10 May 03 Mar 28 Feb 15 Jan 18 Feb 15 Jan 30 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2007 Favorable 35 36 36 37 36 37 9 Unfavorable 37 36 43 40 34 40 10 Hvn't hrd enough 24 25 19 21 26 21 80 REFUSED 4 4 3 2 4 2 1 4. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 48% 10% 89% 45% 43% 52% Unfavorable 47 86 8 49 53 42 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 3 1 3 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 49% Feb 2012) FAVORABLE..... High Low May 10 May 03 Mar 28 Feb 15 Jan 18 Mar 28* Jan 30 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2007 Favorable 48 46 49 49 48 49 35 Unfavorable 47 45 46 46 47 46 12 Hvn't hrd enough 2 5 2 2 2 2 52 REFUSED 2 5 2 3 2 2 1 5. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 11% 74% 33% 35% 42% Unfavorable 39 73 8 39 49 31 Hvn't hrd enough 20 15 17 26 15 26 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 10 Dec 08 Jan 30 2012 2011 2007 Favorable 39 34 19 Unfavorable 39 40 19 Hvn't hrd enough 20 25 61 REFUSED 1 1 1 6. Is your opinion of Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 26% 49% 9% 22% 31% 21% Unfavorable 14 3 28 13 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 59 47 61 65 53 64 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 26% Jun 2010) FAVORABLE..... High Low May 10 Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 May 10 Dec 10 2012 2010 2010 2010 2010 2012* 2008 Favorable 26 26 25 25 25 26 12 Unfavorable 14 7 8 8 7 14 7 Hvn't hrd enough 59 66 65 66 66 59 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Brown 46% 10% 85% 42% 41% 50% Mandel 40 79 5 38 46 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 4 - DK/NA 12 10 8 16 9 15 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") (* High also 49% Sep 2011, Jul 2011) BROWN......... High Low May 10 Mar 29 Feb 15 Jan 19 Oct 26 Oct 26 May 19 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011* 2011 Brown 46 46 48 47 49 49 45 Mandel 40 36 35 32 34 34 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 12 14 14 18 14 14 21 8. Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 15% 75% 35% 40% 41% Unfavorable 30 57 3 29 38 23 Hvn't hrd enough 29 26 22 34 22 35 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 10 Feb 15 Jan 19 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 41 41 42 Unfavorable 30 26 26 Hvn't hrd enough 29 31 30 REFUSED 1 2 2 9. Is your opinion of Josh Mandel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 30% 54% 9% 30% 36% 24% Unfavorable 18 3 38 14 21 15 Hvn't hrd enough 51 42 53 56 43 59 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Josh Mandel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 10 Feb 15 Jan 19 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 30 16 17 Unfavorable 18 12 13 Hvn't hrd enough 51 71 69 REFUSED 1 1 1 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 38% 65% 15% 36% 44% 33% Disapprove 23 5 41 23 23 23 DK/NA 39 31 44 41 33 44 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE...... High Low May 10 Feb 14 Jan 19 Oct 25 Sep 27 Feb 14 Mar 24 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2012 2011 Approve 38 42 39 38 41 42 30 Disapprove 23 25 25 26 23 25 25 DK/NA 39 34 36 36 35 34 45 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 20% 77% 42% 44% 48% Disapprove 33 57 8 34 38 29 DK/NA 21 22 15 25 18 23 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? (* High also 52% May 2009) APPROVE....... High Low May 10 Feb 15 Jan 19 Oct 26 Sep 28 Sep 28 Jul 07 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011* 2009 Approve 46 47 47 50 52 52 41 Disapprove 33 34 34 30 31 31 29 DK/NA 21 19 19 20 18 18 30 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk* Approve 49% 12% 89% 47% 45% 52% 43% 93% Disapprove 48 87 10 51 53 44 55 3 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHold Approve 48% 40% 35% 46% 39% 47% 28% 47% 41% Disapprove 51 57 62 53 59 51 71 51 58 DK/NA 1 3 2 - 2 2 1 2 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Approve 50% 49% 55% 51% 50% 42% 52% 48% 47% Disapprove 48 49 41 47 48 56 45 50 50 DK/NA 2 3 4 2 2 1 3 2 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low May 10 May 03 Mar 28 Feb 15 Jan 18 Feb 06 Dec 08 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2009 2011 Approve 49 48 47 47 44 67 41 Disapprove 48 47 49 48 51 16 55 DK/NA 2 5 5 5 5 17 4 16. Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves 44% 15% 78% 40% 41% 46% No/Does not 38 66 9 39 43 34 DK/NA 18 20 13 21 16 21 TREND: Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? DESERVES...... High Low May 10 Feb 15 Jan 19 Oct 26 Sep 28 Sep 28 May 10 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2012 Yes/Deserves 44 46 48 48 50 50 44 No/Does not 38 34 33 31 34 34 38 DK/NA 18 20 19 20 16 16 18 32. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan? Miltry Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Approve 53% 25% 85% 49% 53% 54% 48% Disapprove 40 66 9 45 42 38 45 DK/NA 7 10 5 5 5 9 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan? May 10 May 03 Mar 28 2012 2012 2012 Approve 53 51 52 Disapprove 40 39 40 DK/NA 7 10 8 33. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? Miltry Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Right thing 41% 52% 37% 37% 48% 34% 41% Shld not be involved 54 44 58 57 49 58 54 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 2 8 5 TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? RIGHT THING.. High Low May 10 May 03 Mar 28 Jan 20 Jun 30 Feb 23 Mar 28 2012 2012 2012 2011 2010 2010 2012 Right thing 41 33 28 38 46 55 28 Shld not be involved 54 59 65 54 48 39 65 DK/NA 5 8 7 8 6 6 7 34. From what you've read and heard, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough, or is he handling this about right? Miltry Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Too quickly 16% 36% 3% 14% 22% 12% 20% Not quickly enough 29 31 21 34 27 31 32 About right 49 27 74 48 50 49 45 DK/NA 5 7 2 4 2 8 3 TREND: From what you've read and heard, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough, or is he handling this about right? May 10 May 03 Mar 28 2012 2012 2012 Too quickly 16 17 15 Not quickly enough 29 32 34 About right 49 43 47 DK/NA 5 8 5 Demographic Summary
