April 18, 2013 - Big Gender Gap As Kasich Leads 2014 Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; He Leads Dem Challengers In Early Look At 2014 Race Word format PDF format With a commanding lead among men, Ohio Gov. John Kasich leads likely Democratic challengers in an early look at the 2014 governor's race, 46 - 37 percent over Cuyahoga County Executive Ed Fitzgerald and 45 - 38 percent over U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The Republican governor's margins remain virtually unchanged from the results of a February 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, Gov. Kasich leads Fitzgerald 51 - 32 percent among men, while women are divided 41 - 41 percent. Kasich tops Cordray 52 - 34 percent among men, while women go 43 percent for Cordray and 39 percent for the incumbent. "In a state where self-described Democrats outnumber Republicans 35 - 27 percent, Kasich seems to be in reasonably good shape as he looks ahead to the 2014 gubernatorial election," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The fact that he leads his two potential Democratic opponents by 20 and 17 points respectively among the key independent voting bloc is a good indication that he starts the campaign with the voting public seeing him positively. "There is a large gender gap in the Ohio electorate when it comes to Kasich's reelection. The gender gap is a factor in virtually all political campaigns these days, but its size at this point in this race seems a bit larger than normal." Ohio voters approve 52 - 34 percent of the job Kasich is doing and give him a 46 - 29 percent favorability rating. For Cordray, 66 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Fitzgerald, 76 percent don't know enough. "These numbers indicate that County Executive Ed Fitzgerald and Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray are not well-known to voters," Brown added. "Should they undertake the race, they will need to define themselves positively in the eyes of the mass of voters who don't yet have an opinion about either man, "One bad sign for Kasich is that he does not hit 50 percent in the reelection matchups or in the general question of whether he deserves reelection." Kasich deserves reelection, Ohio voters say 46 - 37 percent, including 51 - 35 percent among independent voters. In the Fitzgerald-Kasich matchup, the governor leads 86 - 2 percent among Republicans and 48 - 28 percent among independent voters, while Democrats go to Fitzgerald 77 - 10 percent. Against Cordray, Kasich leads 88 - 4 percent among Republicans and 47 - 30 percent among independent voters, while losing Democrats 78 - 9 percent. In each race, independent voters provide the governor's winning margin. Kasich seems to have something of a moderate ideological image: 26 percent say he is too conservative, while 10 percent say he is too liberal and 47 percent say he is "about right." Views of the less-known Fitzgerald and Cordray are unformed, as about half of voters in each case say they can't place them on the ideological scale. Voters are split 24 - 26 percent on whether Fitzgerald has the right experience to be governor. Cordray has the right experience, voters say 31 - 27 percent. Underpinning Kasich's early strength is a generally positive review from voters about his handling of the economy, 49 - 41 percent approval. A total of 38 percent of voters rate Ohio's economy as "excellent" or "good," the highest scores ever. Another 60 percent say the economy is "not so good" or "poor." From April 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,138 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Fitzgerald the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Fitzgerald 37% 2% 77% 28% 32% 41% 32% 68% Kasich 46 86 10 48 51 41 50 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 6 DK/NA 15 11 11 21 13 17 15 16 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Fitzgerald 34% 32% 27% 34% 30% 35% Kasich 49 50 55 56 54 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 3 - DK/NA 15 15 16 10 12 18 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Fitzgerald 36% 37% 43% 33% 26% 32% 42% 35% Kasich 47 45 39 50 60 49 42 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 - 4 3 - DK/NA 14 15 16 15 13 14 12 16 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Fitzgerald the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 18 Feb 28 2013 2013 Fitzgerald 37 35 Kasich 46 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 15 17 2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Cordray the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Cordray 38% 4% 78% 30% 34% 43% 34% 74% Kasich 45 88 9 47 52 39 50 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 13 8 10 20 10 15 14 12 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Cordray 37% 33% 29% 34% 30% 37% Kasich 46 51 54 55 55 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 15 13 13 11 10 17 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Cordray 40% 38% 44% 35% 31% 32% 43% 39% Kasich 44 46 39 51 58 51 42 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 - 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 3 - - 3 1 1 DK/NA 13 13 13 13 11 13 11 13 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Cordray the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 18 Feb 28 2013 2013 Cordray 38 38 Kasich 45 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 13 16 3. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 46% 73% 20% 51% 52% 41% 49% 26% Unfavorable 29 7 51 25 26 31 29 34 Hvn't hrd enough 24 19 28 22 20 27 21 38 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 52% 44% 38% 52% 61% 44% 45% 49% Unfavorable 37 26 29 31 29 17 32 33 Hvn't hrd enough 8 29 32 15 8 38 22 16 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 18 Feb 28 Dec 11 Jun 29 Apr 29 Feb 28 Dec 10 2013 2013 2012 2010 2010 2013 2008 Favorable 46 48 40 28 27 48 18 Unfavorable 29 32 34 19 10 32 8 Hvn't hrd enough 24 17 24 52 62 17 73 REFUSED 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 4. Is your opinion of - Richard Cordray favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 21% 10% 34% 22% 21% 22% 20% 33% Unfavorable 11 18 3 11 15 8 12 2 Hvn't hrd enough 66 71 63 66 62 70 66 65 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 2 1 1 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 30% 19% 21% 24% 27% 16% 21% 26% Unfavorable 14 10 6 15 22 8 12 13 Hvn't hrd enough 55 70 72 60 48 75 65 61 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Richard Cordray favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 18 Feb 28 Dec 11 Aug 14 2013 2013 2012 2008 Favorable 21 25 19 19 Unfavorable 11 11 11 4 Hvn't hrd enough 66 62 70 74 REFUSED 1 2 1 3 5. Is your opinion of - Ed Fitzgerald favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 14% 5% 27% 12% 14% 15% 13% 27% Unfavorable 8 11 3 9 11 6 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 76 83 70 77 73 79 77 66 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 17% 14% 15% 15% 13% 13% 17% 13% Unfavorable 8 8 7 8 11 9 7 9 Hvn't hrd enough 73 77 77 76 73 78 73 78 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 3 - 3 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Ed Fitzgerald favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 18 Feb 28 Dec 11 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 14 13 10 Unfavorable 8 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 76 80 84 REFUSED 1 1 1 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 52% 76% 30% 55% 57% 47% 54% 32% Disapprove 34 11 55 33 29 38 32 50 DK/NA 15 13 15 12 14 16 14 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 54% 51% 46% 56% 60% 56% 48% 54% Disapprove 38 32 36 34 32 23 39 35 DK/NA 8 17 17 10 8 21 14 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? (*Low also 30% Jan 2011) APPROVE....... High Low Apr 18 Feb 28 Dec 11 Jun 27 May 09 Feb 28 Mar 23 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2013 2011* Approve 52 53 42 40 41 53 30 Disapprove 34 32 35 44 44 32 46 DK/NA 15 14 23 16 15 14 23 11. Do you feel that John Kasich deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 46% 74% 19% 51% 50% 42% 48% 20% No/Does not 37 10 65 35 35 39 35 61 DK/NA 17 16 16 14 15 19 17 18 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes/Deserves 47% 49% 50% 57% 52% 45% No/Does not 38 33 32 33 33 36 DK/NA 15 18 18 10 15 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes/Deserves 45% 46% 42% 49% 53% 48% 41% 48% No/Does not 40 37 41 37 30 32 42 38 DK/NA 15 18 17 13 16 19 17 15 TREND: Do you feel that John Kasich deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Apr 18 Feb 28 Dec 11 2013 2013 2012 Yes/Deserves 46 46 36 No/Does not 37 36 43 DK/NA 17 18 21 12. Do you think John Kasich is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Liberal 10% 9% 9% 11% 11% 9% 10% 18% Conservative 26 8 45 24 26 26 25 37 About right 47 72 26 52 49 46 50 26 DK/NA 16 12 20 13 13 19 16 20 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Liberal 5% 12% 12% 8% 6% 9% 13% 9% Conservative 37 22 24 33 31 24 26 27 About right 47 47 46 48 54 51 43 49 DK/NA 11 18 19 10 10 16 18 15 13. Do you think Ed Fitzgerald is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Liberal 13% 24% 3% 15% 17% 10% 14% 3% Conservative 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 5 About right 28 16 43 24 28 28 24 52 DK/NA 55 56 50 58 52 58 58 39 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Liberal 16% 12% 10% 15% 18% 13% 15% 13% Conservative 3 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 About right 26 29 33 28 18 37 30 22 DK/NA 56 55 53 54 60 46 52 62 14. Do you think Richard Cordray is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Liberal 17% 31% 3% 19% 23% 12% 19% 2% Conservative 4 - 5 6 4 4 4 6 About right 33 22 48 29 32 34 31 53 DK/NA 46 47 44 46 41 51 47 39 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Liberal 19% 16% 11% 23% 24% 14% 18% 19% Conservative 2 5 6 2 3 4 5 3 About right 35 33 36 34 29 39 30 33 DK/NA 44 47 47 41 43 43 47 45 15. Do you think Ed Fitzgerald has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Ohio or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 24% 12% 40% 19% 26% 22% 20% 47% No 26 41 14 27 30 22 27 18 DK/NA 50 48 46 54 44 56 53 35 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 22% 25% 26% 26% 18% 31% 29% 17% No 23 27 25 26 30 19 27 29 DK/NA 55 49 49 49 52 49 45 55 16. Do you think Richard Cordray has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Ohio or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 31% 21% 44% 28% 33% 30% 30% 36% No 27 39 16 30 31 24 28 25 DK/NA 42 41 40 42 36 46 42 38 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 36% 29% 31% 35% 38% 33% 34% 29% No 24 28 26 31 28 29 26 28 DK/NA 40 42 44 34 34 38 40 43 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the economy? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 49% 70% 24% 58% 55% 44% 51% 27% Disapprove 41 20 66 37 36 46 38 65 DK/NA 10 10 11 5 9 11 10 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 55% 47% 42% 57% 59% 54% 45% 49% Disapprove 38 42 47 39 33 35 45 41 DK/NA 7 11 11 4 8 11 10 9 18. Would you describe the state of Ohio's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Excellent 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% Good 36 44 25 42 46 28 38 17 Not so good 44 41 51 37 38 48 42 55 Poor 16 11 20 18 12 21 16 25 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Excellent 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% Good 45 33 31 39 50 37 32 39 Not so good 41 45 44 46 36 46 45 41 Poor 11 19 22 11 6 12 18 18 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 4 3 3 2 TREND: Would you describe the state of Ohio's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? (*Low also 5% Dec 2008, Feb 2009) EXCELLENT+GOOD High Low Apr 18 Mar 18 Feb 06 Dec 11 Aug 14 Apr 18 Mar 18 2013 2009 2009 2008 2008 2013 2009* Excellent 2 - - - - 2 - Good 36 5 5 5 14 36 5 Not so good 44 36 33 36 49 44 36 Poor 16 59 61 58 36 16 59 DK/NA 2 - 1 1 - 2 - 19. Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 43% 51% 41% 39% 51% 36% 44% 40% Worse 13 11 14 16 9 16 12 15 The same 43 38 45 45 39 46 42 45 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Better 54% 39% 36% 47% 64% 49% 42% 41% Worse 6 16 17 8 4 12 13 12 The same 39 44 45 45 31 38 44 45 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 2 TREND: Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Apr 18 Dec 11 2013 2012 Better 43 42 Worse 13 19 The same 43 38 DK/NA 1 1 20. Compared to most other states, would you say Ohio's economy is better, worse, or about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 25% 36% 16% 27% 31% 19% 26% 13% Worse 19 17 21 20 17 21 19 22 About the same 49 40 56 47 47 51 48 58 DK/NA 7 7 6 7 5 9 7 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Better 32% 22% 21% 28% 35% 22% 24% 27% Worse 16 20 20 19 14 22 23 15 About the same 46 50 50 47 47 53 44 50 DK/NA 6 8 9 5 4 4 9 7 Demographic Summary
