April 7, 2010 - Specter Tops Sestak Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corbett Has Big Lead In GOP Governor's Primary Word format Sen. Arlen Specter has a 53 - 32 percent lead among likely Democratic primary voters over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak in the Senate race, while in the Governor's race, Attorney General Tom Corbett holds a 58 - 7 percent margin among likely Republican primary voters over State Rep. Sam Rohrer, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Three candidates in the Democratic primary for Governor are bunched together with Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato at 20 percent, former U.S. Senate candidate Joe Hoeffel at 15 percent and State Auditor General Jack Wagner at 13 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. A fourth hopeful, State Sen. Tony Williams, gets 5 percent, while 47 percent are undecided and 70 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind. In the Democratic Senate race, which has received national attention since Specter switched parties last year after three decades in the Senate as a Republican, only 15 percent of voters are undecided, not nearly enough to switch the outcome even if they all backed Sestak. "With less than six weeks until the May 18 primary, Sen. Arlen Specter looks to be in solid shape for the Democratic nomination. Not only would Sestak have to win every undecided vote, he also would have to take away some who say they are for Specter. While that is certainly possible, it is a steep hill for Sestak to climb because Specter is such a known quantity to Pennsylvania Democrats, who generally like him," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The only good news for Sestak is that his followers are slightly more likely to say they would not change their minds than are Specter's," Brown added. Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters view Specter favorably by a 60 - 26 percent margin, while they see Sestak favorably by a 33 - 6 percent margin, with 58 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. By 43 - 26 percent, Democrats say they trust Specter more than Sestak to do in office what he says on the campaign trail and by a 42 - 26 percent margin say Specter more shares their values. The Democratic candidates for Governor have been virtually invisible to the voters: 64 percent of Democrats don't know enough about Onorato to have an opinion, while 73 percent feel that way about Wagner; 75 percent about Hoeffel and 90 percent about Williams. "Dan Onorato remains slightly ahead as he has since the campaign began, but his margin is so small and the undecided vote so large that at this point the race is a three-way toss-up," said Brown. "With the candidates so unknown and just under half the voters undecided almost anything can happen, although history tells us in situations like this one, the winner will be the candidate with the largest and most effective television ad campaign and ground operation to bring out their vote. With that level of anonymity, anything is possible. This is clearly a race that is yet to be decided." In the race for the Republican nomination, Corbett is way ahead and Rohrer's challenge is a token one at best. Even more than Specter, Corbett could lose every undecided vote and still win comfortably. Corbett is rated favorably by 51 percent of Republicans, unfavorably by 3 percent. For Rohrer, 88 percent don't know enough to form an opinion. From March 31 - April 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 921 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, and 491 Pennsylvania likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The sample is drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1a. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel? (If undecided q1a) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Onorato, Wagner, Williams or Hoeffel? This table includes "Leaners". DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Onorato 20% 18% 22% Wagner 13 15 12 Williams 5 6 4 Hoeffel 15 16 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 47 44 49 1aa. (If express choice q1a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? (*Group size too small to report) DEM LIKELY VOTERS............. CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1a......... CAND OF CHOICE Q1a..... Tot DO JW TW* JH Made up 27% 38% 13% - 27% Might change 70 59 86 - 71 DK/NA 2 3 2 - 2 2a. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 27% 26% 28% Unfavorable 6 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 64 65 64 REFUSED 2 2 2 3a. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 20% 24% 18% Unfavorable 5 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 73 70 76 REFUSED 2 2 2 4a. Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 18% 20% 17% Unfavorable 4 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 75 72 78 REFUSED 2 2 2 5a. Is your opinion of - Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 6% 8% 5% Unfavorable 3 4 2 Hvn't hrd enough 90 87 92 REFUSED 1 1 1 6a. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? (If undecided q6a) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Specter or Sestak? This table includes "Leaners". DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 53% 53% 53% Sestak 32 37 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 15 10 18 6aa. (If express choice q6a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? DEM LIKELY VOTERS........ CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q6a.... CAND OF CHOICE Q6a Tot AS JS Made up 62% 58% 67% Might change 37 39 33 DK/NA 2 2 - 7a. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 60% 60% 60% Unfavorable 26 29 24 Hvn't hrd enough 12 9 14 REFUSED 2 3 2 8a. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 33% 37% 31% Unfavorable 6 7 5 Hvn't hrd enough 58 54 61 REFUSED 2 2 3 9a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 43% 42% 43% Sestak 26 34 22 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 7 6 DK/NA 25 18 29 10a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 42% 41% 43% Sestak 26 32 22 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 5 4 DK/NA 27 21 31 11a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - see as more consistently liberal, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 35% 37% 34% Sestak 26 31 23 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 2 3 DK/NA 36 30 41 12a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - think would be more likely to win the November general election if nominated, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? DEM LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 58% 59% 57% Sestak 21 26 18 NO DIFF(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 20 14 24 1b. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tom Corbett or Sam Rohrer? (If undecided q1b) As of today, do you lean a little more toward Corbett or Rohrer? This table includes "Leaners". REP LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Corbett 58% 66% 51% Rohrer 7 7 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 35 27 42 1ab. (If express choice q1b) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? (*Group size too small to report) REP LIKELY VOTERS........ CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1b.... CAND OF CHOICE Q1b Tot TC SR* Made up 32% 32% - Might change 64 64 - DK/NA 4 4 - 2b. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REP LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 51% 59% 44% Unfavorable 3 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 44 38 50 REFUSED 2 - 3 3b. Is your opinion of - Sam Rohrer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? REP LIKELY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 8% 8% 8% Unfavorable 2 3 - Hvn't hrd enough 88 87 89 REFUSED 2 2 2
