May 12, 2010 - Specter-Sestak Dem Primary Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Toomey Has Big Lead In Republican Primary Word format U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak continues his stretch run in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate primary and now trails incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter by a too-close-to-call 44 - 42 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 14 percent of Democrats are undecided, and 29 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind. The Democratic winner is likely to face Republican Pat Toomey who holds a 60 - 9 percent lead over Peg Luksik among likely Republican primary voters. In the Democratic primary for Governor, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato gets 38 percent of likely voters, trailed by state Auditor General Jack Wagner with 11 percent, State Sen. Tony Williams with 10 percent and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel with 9 percent. But 32 percent remain undecided and 56 percent of those choosing a candidate say they might change their mind. The Democratic winner seems destined to face Attorney General Tom Corbett who leads State Rep. Sam Rohrer 57 - 14 percent in the GOP gubernatorial primary, compared to his 58 - 7 percent lead in Quinnipiac University's April poll. The Specter-Sestak race has narrowed from a 47 - 39 percent Specter lead May 4 and a 53 - 32 percent Specter lead April 7. "Sen. Arlen Specter has a history of winning close elections and he'll need that to continue because his once commanding lead is gone. His margin over Sestak is too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The intangibles are clearly on Sestak's side. He has the momentum and the anti- incumbent wave sweeping the country is a good omen for the challenger," Brown added. "Troubling for Specter is that one in seven likely primary voters are undecided and incumbents - especially 30-year incumbents who have switched parties - rarely get much of the undecided vote." Specter does better among women, 44 - 38 percent, while men go 47 percent for Sestak and 44 percent for Specter. Specter's support is slightly weaker than Sestak's as 34 percent of the incumbent's voters say they might change their mind, compared to 25 percent of the challenger's backers. Specter remains better known than Sestak, with a 50 - 33 percent favorability. By comparison, Sestak gets a 42 - 10 percent favorability, with 46 percent saying they don't know enough about him to have an opinion. "Faced with these numbers, Pennsylvania TV viewers can expect to see as many television commercials as Specter can afford in the final week, trying to convince that 46 percent who don't know enough about Sestak that he is not their kind of guy," said Brown. Onorato's lead over the rest of the Democratic gubernatorial field is little changed from last week when he received 36 percent, Hoeffel 9 percent, Wagner and Williams 8 percent each. "Dan Onorato's lead over the Democratic field hasn't really grown over the past week, but with only seven days until the actual voting, his chances of winning the Democratic nomination for Governor certainly are better than the rest," said Brown. "Although more than half of likely voters say they might change their mind, the odds that enough of them do, and all go to the same candidate other than Onorato seem very, very small." From May 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 945 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, and 995 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. The sample is drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1a. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel? (If undecided q1a) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Onorato, Wagner, Williams or Hoeffel? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Onorato 38% 40% 36% Wagner 11 13 10 Williams 10 9 10 Hoeffel 9 13 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 32 23 37 TREND: If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel? (If undecided q1a) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Onorato, Wagner, Williams or Hoeffel? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Onorato 38 36 20 Wagner 11 8 13 Williams 10 8 5 Hoeffel 9 9 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 32 37 47 1aa. (If express choice q1a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS...... CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1a.......... CAND CHOICE Q1a......... Tot DO JW TW JH Made up 42% 45% 40% 31% 44% Might change 56 53 57 68 56 DK/NA 2 2 3 1 - TREND: (If express choice q1a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1a May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Made up 42 36 27 Might change 56 60 70 DK/NA 2 4 2 2a. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? (If undecided q2a) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Specter or Sestak? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 44% 44% 44% Sestak 42 47 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 14 8 17 TREND: If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? (If undecided q2a) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Specter or Sestak? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Specter 44 47 53 Sestak 42 39 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 14 14 15 2aa. (If express choice q2a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q2a. CAND CHOICE Q2a Tot AS JS Made up 70% 66% 74% Might change 29 34 25 DK/NA 1 1 1 TREND: (If express choice q2a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q2a May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Made up 70 63 62 Might change 29 35 37 DK/NA 1 2 2 3a. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 50% 53% 48% Unfavorable 33 37 31 Hvn't hrd enough 11 7 14 REFUSED 5 3 6 TREND: Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 50 57 60 Unfavorable 33 31 26 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 12 REFUSED 5 4 2 4a. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 42% 49% 37% Unfavorable 10 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 46 38 51 REFUSED 2 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 42 43 33 Unfavorable 10 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 46 44 58 REFUSED 2 2 2 5a. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 43% 48% 41% Unfavorable 9 12 8 Hvn't hrd enough 44 38 48 REFUSED 3 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 43 46 27 Unfavorable 9 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 44 46 64 REFUSED 3 3 2 6a. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 19% 23% 17% Unfavorable 6 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 72 67 76 REFUSED 2 4 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 19 17 20 Unfavorable 6 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 72 75 73 REFUSED 2 2 2 7a. Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 15% 22% 11% Unfavorable 7 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 76 67 82 REFUSED 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 15 15 18 Unfavorable 7 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 76 77 75 REFUSED 2 2 2 8a. Is your opinion of - Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 16% 17% 16% Unfavorable 10 12 8 Hvn't hrd enough 72 70 74 REFUSED 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 16 17 6 Unfavorable 10 7 3 Hvn't hrd enough 72 73 90 REFUSED 2 3 1 9a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 40% 42% 39% Sestak 33 38 30 NO DIFF(VOL) 10 11 9 DK/NA 17 9 23 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Specter 40 42 43 Sestak 33 31 26 NO DIFF(VOL) 10 7 6 DK/NA 17 20 25 10a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 40% 39% 40% Sestak 38 43 34 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 5 4 DK/NA 18 13 22 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Specter 40 41 42 Sestak 38 34 26 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 3 4 DK/NA 18 22 27 11a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as more consistently liberal, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 35% 35% 35% Sestak 33 41 29 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 29 21 34 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as more consistently liberal, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Specter 35 35 35 Sestak 33 29 26 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 29 33 36 12a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be more likely to win the November general election if nominated, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 54% 54% 54% Sestak 29 32 27 NO DIFF(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 16 12 19 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be more likely to win the November general election if nominated, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 May 4 Apr 7 2010 2010 2010 Specter 54 60 58 Sestak 29 23 21 NO DIFF(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 16 17 20 1b. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tom Corbett or Sam Rohrer? (If undecided q1b) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Corbett or Rohrer? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Corbett 57% 60% 55% Rohrer 14 15 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 28 25 31 TREND: If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tom Corbett or Sam Rohrer? (If undecided q1b) As of today, do you lean a little more toward Corbett or Rohrer? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 Apr 7 2010 2010 Corbett 57 58 Rohrer 14 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 28 35 1ab. (If express choice q1b) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1b. CAND CHOICE Q1b Tot TC SR Made up 43% 40% 56% Might change 54 57 41 DK/NA 3 4 3 TREND: (If express choice q1b) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1b May 12 Apr 7 2010 2010 Made up 43 32 Might change 54 64 DK/NA 3 4 2b. If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Pat Toomey or Peg Luksik? (If undecided q2b) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Toomey or Luksik? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Toomey 60% 68% 53% Luksik 9 7 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 31 24 37 2ab. (If express choice q2b) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q2b. CAND CHOICE Q2b Tot PT PL Made up 51% 53% 34% Might change 48 46 62 DK/NA 1 1 5 3b. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 48% 58% 39% Unfavorable 4 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 47 37 57 REFUSED 1 1 2 4b. Is your opinion of - Peg Luksik favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 12% 15% 9% Unfavorable 6 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 81 77 84 REFUSED 2 2 2 5b. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 57% 63% 52% Unfavorable 7 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 34 28 38 REFUSED 3 2 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 Apr 7 2010 2010 Favorable 57 51 Unfavorable 7 3 Hvn't hrd enough 34 44 REFUSED 3 2 6b. Is your opinion of - Sam Rohrer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 19% 22% 17% Unfavorable 3 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 76 74 78 REFUSED 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Sam Rohrer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS May 12 Apr 7 2010 2010 Favorable 19 8 Unfavorable 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 76 88 REFUSED 2 2
