May 13, 2010 - Sestak Surges Against Toomey In November Matchup, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Corbett Has Small Lead In Governor's Race Word format U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, who has narrowed the gap against Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary, also is surging against likely Republican candidate Pat Toomey, getting 40 percent of registered voters to Toomey's 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 42 - 34 percent Toomey lead in an April 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Toomey leads Specter 47 - 40 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent last month. Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett leads his most likely Democratic opponent for Pennsylvania Governor, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, 43 - 37 percent. President Barack Obama remains "underwater" in Pennsylvania, with a negative 46 - 48 percent job approval. President Obama, however, rates better than lame duck Gov. Ed Rendell, who gets a negative 40 - 51 percent job approval rating. "Although the Quinnipiac poll of likely Democratic primary voters finds that many more think Sen. Arlen Specter is the better general election candidate, Congressman Joe Sestak actually runs a good deal better against Toomey in a trial heat," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The money that Sestak has been spending introducing himself to Democratic primary voters with TV ads seems to be having an effect on general election voters as well. The difference is largely among independent voters, who favor Toomey 52 - 31 percent over Specter, but only 46 - 30 percent over Sestak." Specter, seeking his sixth term in the Senate, gets his worst approval rating ever, a negative 38 - 51 percent. He also gets a negative 36 - 50 percent favorability rating. By comparison, Toomey gets a 29 - 9 percent favorability with 60 percent who don't know enough about him. Sestak has a 32 - 14 percent favorability with 52 percent who don't know enough about him. "Even if Specter gets by next Tuesday's Democratic primary against Sestak, he faces a tough re-election fight in November against Toomey," said Brown. "It's worth noting that Toomey has been biding his time, raising money and organizing for the November election while the Democrats scratch each other's eyes out." Attorney General Corbett has led the polls since the race began, but his six-point margin over Onorato, who is ahead in next week's four-way Democratic gubernatorial primary, marks the first time that the GOP candidate's lead over any of the four Democrats has dropped into single digits. "All those television commercials Dan Onorato has been airing to introduce himself to the voters outside of the Pittsburgh area who had not known who he was get viewed by Republicans and independents, too. But like Toomey, Corbett has been saving his money for November and letting his potential opponents go at each other," said Brown. In an Onorato-Corbett November matchup, the GOP candidate's margin comes from his 42 - 29 percent lead among independent voters. Corbett leads 82 - 9 percent among Republicans as Onorato takes Democrats 68 - 11 percent. Corbett begins the general election campaign with larger and more positive name recognition than Onorato. Almost half of all registered voters, 49 percent, view him favorably, with 13 percent unfavorably, while Onorato gets a 34 - 13 percent favorability, with 51 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. While Rendell and Obama are plagued by low scores, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey gets a 47 - 30 percent approval rating. From May 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 5. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Onorato 37% 9% 68% 29% 35% 39% 39% Corbett 43 82 11 42 52 35 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 19 9 20 27 12 25 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Onorato 55% 61% 34% 31% 34% 29% 30% Corbett 37 15 45 44 44 54 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 2 2 - 2 - DK/NA 8 23 19 21 21 15 20 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 Onorato 37 33 32 30 28 Corbett 43 45 42 45 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 19 21 24 22 24 6. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Wagner 28% 4% 57% 17% 24% 31% 29% Corbett 47 86 14 49 55 40 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 23 8 28 29 18 28 22 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Wagner 37% 42% 24% 25% 22% 30% 24% Corbett 41 23 54 46 52 51 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - - 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 1 1 2 1 - DK/NA 18 33 22 27 25 16 22 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 Wagner 28 29 30 33 29 Corbett 47 48 42 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 23 21 26 23 25 7. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Joe Hoeffel the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Hoeffel 26% 3% 55% 15% 21% 31% 30% Corbett 49 87 18 47 58 41 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 4 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 2 - DK/NA 22 8 24 33 18 26 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Hoeffel 22% 58% 23% 35% 20% 15% 17% Corbett 48 22 56 42 56 57 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 1 - 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - 1 - 2 4 1 DK/NA 21 19 21 22 22 23 25 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Joe Hoeffel the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 2010 2010 2010 2009 Hoeffel 26 28 30 30 Corbett 49 50 41 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 22 21 27 23 8. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 40% 9% 73% 31% 36% 43% 42% Toomey 47 86 12 52 55 41 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 - DK/NA 12 4 14 15 7 15 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 47% 59% 37% 43% 30% 34% 33% Toomey 40 24 55 44 52 52 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 - 1 - 2 DK/NA 11 15 7 13 17 14 9 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Data available upon request back to May 2009) May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Specter 40 41 49 44 42 45 46 Toomey 47 46 42 44 43 44 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 - 3 DK/NA 12 12 8 11 13 10 14 9. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sestak 40% 10% 71% 30% 36% 43% 41% Toomey 42 81 9 46 50 35 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 16 8 18 23 12 20 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sestak 41% 63% 39% 45% 28% 41% 30% Toomey 42 20 48 36 49 47 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 1 4 - DK/NA 14 17 12 16 21 9 21 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Sestak 40 34 36 35 35 35 37 Toomey 42 42 39 40 38 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 DK/NA 16 22 24 22 25 23 23 10. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 36% 17% 56% 30% 33% 38% 38% Unfavorable 50 74 24 58 57 44 46 Hvn't hrd enough 12 7 16 10 8 15 13 REFUSED 2 1 4 1 2 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE.... High Low May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Nov 26 May 13 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2008 2010 Favorable 36 40 44 43 42 56 36 Unfavorable 50 46 43 45 46 23 50 Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 11 9 10 19 12 REFUSED 2 3 1 3 2 3 2 11. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 29% 55% 6% 32% 36% 24% 26% Unfavorable 9 1 15 9 11 7 13 Hvn't hrd enough 60 43 76 59 52 68 61 REFUSED 1 - 2 - 1 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Dec 18 Mar 25 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 29 29 26 35 34 35 14 Unfavorable 9 9 8 10 12 10 6 Hvn't hrd enough 60 61 65 55 53 55 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 12. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 32% 23% 40% 31% 34% 31% 36% Unfavorable 14 17 10 18 17 12 18 Hvn't hrd enough 52 59 46 50 48 55 44 REFUSED 2 1 4 1 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 32 20 18 20 21 23 18 Unfavorable 14 11 6 9 8 7 5 Hvn't hrd enough 52 68 74 70 70 69 76 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 2 1 - 13. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 34% 22% 46% 34% 36% 33% 35% Unfavorable 13 20 6 15 17 10 18 Hvn't hrd enough 51 57 46 49 46 55 45 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you eard enough about him? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 34 21 20 18 17 16 Unfavorable 13 11 8 9 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 51 66 71 72 71 78 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1 14. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 19% 11% 27% 19% 21% 17% 23% Unfavorable 7 9 5 7 10 5 9 Hvn't hrd enough 73 79 67 73 68 77 67 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 19 18 20 22 22 18 Unfavorable 7 8 7 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 73 72 71 72 71 76 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 1 1 15. Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 14% 7% 20% 14% 14% 13% 18% Unfavorable 11 13 7 13 11 10 12 Hvn't hrd enough 75 80 71 73 74 76 70 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 Favorable 14 14 15 13 13 Unfavorable 11 10 7 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 75 75 77 79 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 16. Is your opinion of - Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 12% 5% 23% 7% 12% 12% 9% Unfavorable 8 10 5 10 9 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 79 84 72 82 78 80 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 12 3 3 Unfavorable 8 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 79 94 95 REFUSED 1 1 1 17. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 49% 73% 31% 50% 54% 45% 55% Unfavorable 13 4 20 13 18 9 14 Hvn't hrd enough 36 23 46 36 27 44 30 REFUSED 1 - 3 - 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 49 47 43 43 43 38 Unfavorable 13 13 7 6 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 36 38 48 50 49 55 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 1 1 18. Is your opinion of - Sam Rohrer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 9% 17% 2% 9% 12% 7% 6% Unfavorable 5 5 5 5 6 4 6 Hvn't hrd enough 85 77 91 85 82 87 87 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Sam Rohrer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 9 7 5 Unfavorable 5 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 85 88 91 REFUSED 1 1 1 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 40% 22% 61% 32% 36% 44% 47% Disapprove 51 72 29 56 59 44 47 DK/NA 9 6 10 12 5 13 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 39% 70% 38% 60% 25% 23% 27% Disapprove 51 18 54 34 65 66 62 DK/NA 10 12 8 6 9 11 10 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Feb 7 Jul 21 Jul 21 2010 2010 2010 2009 2007 2009 2009 Approve 40 45 43 43 61 39 39 Disapprove 51 45 49 49 30 53 53 DK/NA 9 10 8 7 9 8 8 20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 25% 18% 37% 17% 21% 28% 31% Disapprove 59 71 44 68 70 50 61 DK/NA 16 12 19 15 10 21 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 26% 42% 17% 37% 18% 22% 15% Disapprove 58 43 68 49 63 60 68 DK/NA 15 16 15 14 19 18 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low also 25% Dec 2009) APPROVE..... High Low May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Apr 10 May 13 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2003 2010* Approve 25 31 29 25 27 49 25 Disapprove 59 54 59 64 64 24 59 DK/NA 16 14 12 11 9 27 16 21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 38% 17% 59% 34% 34% 41% 38% Disapprove 51 77 25 57 58 45 47 DK/NA 11 6 16 9 8 14 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 47% 52% 31% 39% 35% 30% 34% Disapprove 46 35 54 49 55 56 56 DK/NA 7 13 14 12 10 14 10 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Nov 26 May 13 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2008 2010 Approve 38 44 48 47 44 62 38 Disapprove 51 47 45 45 48 25 51 DK/NA 11 9 6 8 9 13 11 22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 47% 29% 67% 42% 48% 46% 52% Disapprove 30 47 11 36 35 25 26 DK/NA 23 24 22 22 17 29 22 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 54% 62% 41% 44% 46% 40% 45% Disapprove 30 15 36 30 31 28 33 DK/NA 16 23 23 26 23 31 22 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 May 28 Mar 28 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2007 Approve 47 48 53 53 53 56 46 Disapprove 30 30 29 29 29 21 18 DK/NA 23 22 18 18 18 23 35 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 46% 11% 80% 41% 38% 54% 54% Disapprove 48 85 16 49 56 41 43 DK/NA 6 4 4 11 6 5 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 May 4 Apr 8 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2010 Approve 46 45 49 49 49 66 45 Disapprove 48 49 46 45 42 29 49 DK/NA 6 6 4 6 9 5 6
