May 17, 2010 - Specter-Sestak Dem Primary Down To The Wire, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Onorato Leads Dem Governor Primary Word format The Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary goes down to the wire with U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak taking 42 percent of likely primary voters to Sen. Arlen Specter's 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted through Sunday night and released today. With 16 percent undecided and 25 percent of those who do back a candidate saying they might change their mind, the race is too close to call. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato remains far ahead of the field for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination with 39 percent, more than his three major competitors combined, although 31 percent of voters remains undecided. "The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way. Sen. Arlen Specter has the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout. But Congressman Joe Sestak could benefit from the relatively large group of undecided voters. Generally, incumbents don't do all that well with undecideds, who are more likely to vote for the challenger or not vote," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "And slightly more of Specter's voters than Sestak's say they might change their minds. Moreover, as we have seen elsewhere this spring, there is an anti-incumbent mood in the electorate and Specter, with 30 years in the Senate, is the ultimate incumbent." In the Democratic primary, men back Sestak 46 - 41 percent, while women split with 41 percent for Specter and 40 percent for Sestak. The winner of the Democratic Senate primary is likely to face former congressman Pat Toomey, who led the GOP primary race over Peg Luksik 60 - 9 percent in last week's Quinnipiac University poll. In the race for Governor, Onorato gets 39 percent, followed by State Sen. Tony Williams with 11 percent, State Auditor General Jack Wagner at 10 percent and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel at 9 percent. In addition, 31 percent remain undecided and 53 percent of those backing a candidate say they still could change their minds. "County Executive Dan Onorato is far ahead and appears headed for victory. If all the undecided voters went to one of the other candidates, Onorato could conceivably lose. But the odds of that kind of scenario are very, very, very long," said Brown. The Democratic primary winner presumably will face Attorney General Tom Corbett, who led state Rep. Sam Rohrer 57 - 14 percent in last week's Quinnipiac University poll of likely GOP primary voters. From May 12 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 951 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The sample is drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel? (If undecided q1) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Onorato, Wagner, Williams or Hoeffel? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Onorato 39% 39% 38% Wagner 10 13 8 Williams 11 11 11 Hoeffel 9 10 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 31 27 35 1a. (If express choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1... CAND CHOICE Q1......... Tot DO JW TW JH Made up 46% 49% 42% 43% 42% Might change 53 50 58 56 58 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 2. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? (If undecided q2) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Specter or Sestak? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Specter 41% 41% 41% Sestak 42 46 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 16 13 18 2a. (If express choice q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q2 CAND CHOICE Q2 Tot AS JS Made up 74% 70% 78% Might change 25 28 21 DK/NA 1 1 1 3. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 50% 52% 48% Unfavorable 33 35 31 Hvn't hrd enough 11 8 12 REFUSED 7 4 8 4. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 42% 47% 39% Unfavorable 11 14 9 Hvn't hrd enough 43 36 48 REFUSED 4 3 4 5. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 42% 44% 41% Unfavorable 9 9 9 Hvn't hrd enough 45 43 46 REFUSED 3 3 3 6. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 20% 25% 17% Unfavorable 7 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 70 64 75 REFUSED 3 2 3 7. Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 16% 18% 14% Unfavorable 9 12 7 Hvn't hrd enough 73 68 76 REFUSED 2 1 3 8. Is your opinion of -- Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 16% 16% 16% Unfavorable 14 17 11 Hvn't hrd enough 68 65 70 REFUSED 3 2 3
