July 13, 2010 - Independents Key As Corbett Leads In Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Voters Approve Of Arizona Immigration Law 2-1 Word format Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett, the Republican candidate for Governor, has a 44 - 37 percent lead over Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, the Democrat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 43 - 37 percent Corbett lead in a May 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, independent voters back Corbett 44 - 29 percent, as do Republicans 86 - 4 percent. Democrats back Onorato 69 - 13 percent. Pennsylvania voters say 47 - 34 percent they want the state to adopt an immigration law similar to that of Arizona. Voters approve 52 - 27 percent of the Arizona law and by 60 - 27 percent they think the Obama Administration's lawsuit to block its implementation is a bad idea. "With the primaries out of the way, Attorney General Tom Corbett enters the general election phase of the campaign with a 7-point lead. He is better known than Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and voters have more confidence in his ability to right things in Harrisburg," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Corbett is viewed favorably by 44 percent of voters, unfavorably by 11 percent, with 44 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Onorato gets a 31 - 16 percent favorability, with 52 percent who have not yet formed an opinion. Among independent voters, often the key to Pennsylvania elections, Corbett is viewed favorably 43 - 10 percent to Onorato's 27 - 15 percent. Voters say Corbett is better able than Onorato to deal with two key issues: 45 - 31 percent that Corbett is the better candidate to bring reform to Harrisburg; 44 - 32 percent that Corbett is better able to fix the state's economy. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 50 - 42 percent of the job Gov. Ed Rendell is doing. Voters also say 55 - 32 percent they don't want the next governor to continue Gov. Rendell's policies. "The sour taste that Gov. Ed Rendell has left in voters' mouths is probably not helpful to Onorato," said Brown. On immigration, Pennsylvania voters say 72 - 21 percent that reform should move more in the direction of stricter enforcement rather than integration of illegal immigrants into American society. And by 44 - 39 percent they do not think the Arizona law will lead to discrimination against Hispanics. "Pennsylvanians like the Arizona law and don't like President Obama's decision to ask the courts to throw it out. In fact, a plurality would like to see a similar law in their own state," said Brown. Pennsylvania's Sen. Arlen Specter gets a decidedly negative 35 - 57 percent approval rating on his job performance, his worst score ever. Sen. Bob Casey Jr., gets a 48 - 29 percent thumbs up from voters. From July 6 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,367 Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Onorato 37% 4% 69% 29% 29% 43% 43% Corbett 44 86 13 44 51 38 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - - DK/NA 18 10 17 25 17 18 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Onorato 53% 59% 28% 37% 31% 32% 27% Corbett 34 15 46 40 54 48 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 13 24 24 22 14 16 12 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 13 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 Onorato 37 37 33 32 30 28 Corbett 44 43 45 42 45 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 18 19 21 24 22 24 5. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 31% 16% 47% 27% 29% 34% 40% Unfavorable 16 27 7 15 20 12 17 Hvn't hrd enough 52 56 44 57 50 53 41 REFUSED 1 - 2 2 2 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 59% 32% 21% 29% 34% 42% 21% Unfavorable 24 5 11 12 21 27 15 Hvn't hrd enough 14 61 66 58 45 31 62 REFUSED 4 2 2 1 - - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 13 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 31 34 21 20 18 17 16 Unfavorable 16 13 11 8 9 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 52 51 66 71 72 71 78 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 6. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 44% 67% 28% 43% 50% 39% 50% Unfavorable 11 3 17 10 11 11 15 Hvn't hrd enough 44 29 54 46 38 49 34 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 46% 18% 48% 42% 44% 55% 50% Unfavorable 14 14 15 9 10 6 9 Hvn't hrd enough 38 64 36 48 44 39 40 REFUSED 1 4 1 1 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 13 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 44 49 47 43 43 43 38 Unfavorable 11 13 13 7 6 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 44 36 38 48 50 49 55 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 42% 24% 62% 35% 37% 45% 48% Disapprove 50 70 29 56 57 44 48 DK/NA 8 6 9 9 6 10 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 37% 68% 37% 60% 28% 30% 29% Disapprove 52 26 50 34 65 59 64 DK/NA 11 6 13 6 7 11 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Jul 13 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Feb 7 Jul 21 Jul 21 2010 2010 2010 2010 2007 2009 2009 Approve 42 40 45 43 61 39 39 Disapprove 50 51 45 49 30 53 53 DK/NA 8 9 10 8 9 8 8 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 28% 21% 35% 27% 27% 28% 33% Disapprove 57 63 50 60 64 51 56 DK/NA 15 16 15 13 9 20 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 26% 33% 26% 37% 21% 32% 21% Disapprove 58 55 61 49 61 53 63 DK/NA 16 13 13 14 17 14 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low also 25% Dec 2009) APPROVE..... High Low Jul 13 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Apr 10 May 13 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2003 2010* Approve 28 25 31 29 25 49 25 Disapprove 57 59 54 59 64 24 59 DK/NA 15 16 14 12 11 27 16 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 35% 15% 54% 33% 33% 37% 40% Disapprove 57 80 36 59 62 52 55 DK/NA 8 5 10 7 5 11 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 13 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Nov 26 Jul 13 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2008 2010 Approve 35 38 44 48 47 62 35 Disapprove 57 51 47 45 45 25 57 DK/NA 8 11 9 6 8 13 8 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 48% 37% 62% 43% 48% 48% 59% Disapprove 29 42 17 31 35 24 22 DK/NA 23 20 21 26 17 28 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 13 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 May 28 Mar 28 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 Approve 48 47 48 53 53 56 46 Disapprove 29 30 30 29 29 21 18 DK/NA 23 23 22 18 18 23 35 18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very satisfied 3% 2% 4% 3% 4% 2% 1% Smwht satisfied 37 24 52 29 32 41 36 Smwht dissatisfied 38 43 28 48 39 37 44 Very dissatisfied 21 29 14 19 24 19 19 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 4% 6% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% Smwht satisfied 35 53 32 44 34 34 30 Smwht dissatisfied 31 27 38 41 39 44 41 Very dissatisfied 26 14 27 11 24 20 26 DK/NA 3 - 1 1 1 1 2 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*Low also 39% Sep 2009) VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Jul 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Jun 5 Mar 3 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2002 2010* Very satisfied 3 4 2 4 2 8 2 Smwht satisfied 37 42 37 38 37 60 37 Smwht dissatisfied 38 34 37 38 36 22 37 Very dissatisfied 21 19 23 19 23 8 23 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 19. Would you like Pennsylvania's next governor to continue Ed Rendell's policies or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 32% 17% 50% 26% 29% 35% 38% No 55 74 36 60 62 49 56 DK/NA 12 8 14 14 9 15 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 28% 62% 25% 48% 22% 17% 23% No 58 28 59 42 65 71 65 DK/NA 15 10 16 11 13 12 12 20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - think will be better able to bring reform to Harrisburg, Dan Onorato or Tom Corbett? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Onorato 31% 9% 55% 23% 27% 35% 33% Corbett 45 77 21 43 51 39 46 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 2 2 4 5 2 2 DK/NA 21 11 21 29 17 24 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Onorato 44% 45% 26% 32% 29% 31% 23% Corbett 38 25 48 41 47 50 56 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 1 3 3 3 5 2 DK/NA 13 29 23 24 20 14 19 21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - think will do a better job fixing Pennsylvania's economy, Dan Onorato or Tom Corbett? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Onorato 32% 12% 56% 22% 29% 34% 39% Corbett 44 74 20 44 50 39 40 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 3 4 5 4 4 4 DK/NA 20 11 19 28 16 23 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Onorato 50% 42% 23% 37% 29% 31% 22% Corbett 33 25 50 39 51 51 54 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 5 1 3 4 3 4 DK/NA 12 28 26 21 16 15 20 22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling - the economy? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 35% 19% 53% 28% 33% 36% 39% Disapprove 58 75 38 63 62 54 57 DK/NA 8 5 9 8 5 10 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 35% 52% 27% 54% 28% 23% 23% Disapprove 56 36 65 41 67 71 68 DK/NA 9 12 8 5 5 6 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 13 Apr 8 Mar 3 Dec 17 Sep 30 Mar 25 Jul 21 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 35 37 36 38 34 44 33 Disapprove 58 53 53 54 60 43 60 DK/NA 8 11 11 8 7 14 7 29. Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Integration 21% 9% 31% 20% 20% 23% 22% Enforcement 72 87 60 74 75 70 75 DK/NA 6 4 9 5 5 7 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Integration 21% 45% 19% 29% 11% 14% 13% Enforcement 65 48 79 65 84 81 81 DK/NA 14 7 2 6 4 6 5 TREND: Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration? Jul 13 Dec 5 2010 2007 Integration 21 19 Enforcement 72 72 DK/NA 6 9 30. Based on what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of Arizona's new immigration law? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 52% 70% 34% 56% 60% 44% 57% Disapprove 27 14 39 25 25 29 24 DK/NA 21 16 27 19 15 27 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 49% 28% 59% 49% 56% 53% 60% Disapprove 28 48 24 37 23 19 17 DK/NA 23 24 17 15 21 28 23 31. Would you want Pennsylvania to pass a law similar to Arizona's new immigration law or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 47% 64% 31% 52% 54% 41% 55% No 34 22 45 32 33 35 27 DK/NA 19 14 24 17 13 24 18 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 45% 22% 52% 43% 48% 54% 57% No 38 53 32 43 32 23 23 DK/NA 16 25 16 14 20 23 20 32. Do you think Arizona's new immigration law will or will not lead to discrimination against Hispanics? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Will 39% 22% 52% 38% 38% 40% 37% Will not 44 62 28 47 52 37 45 DK/NA 17 17 20 15 10 23 18 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Will 42% 62% 37% 44% 29% 30% 31% Will not 43 18 48 46 51 47 49 DK/NA 15 20 15 9 19 23 20 33. Some have suggested that Arizona should be boycotted because of its new immigration law. Do you think a boycott of Arizona is a good idea or a bad idea? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Good idea 8% 4% 14% 5% 8% 9% 7% Bad idea 82 88 73 87 84 79 82 DK/NA 10 8 13 8 8 12 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Good idea 10% 28% 4% 7% 6% 4% 4% Bad idea 82 53 85 83 85 84 90 DK/NA 8 19 11 10 9 13 6 34. The Obama administration has filed a lawsuit to strike down Arizona's immigration law. Do you think this lawsuit is a good idea or a bad idea? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Good idea 27% 8% 43% 26% 27% 27% 24% Bad idea 60 82 40 63 64 57 64 DK/NA 12 10 16 11 8 16 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Good idea 29% 43% 27% 34% 23% 18% 20% Bad idea 58 44 63 57 63 64 68 DK/NA 13 13 10 9 14 18 13
