July 14, 2010 - Sestak Catches Toomey To Tie Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; More Voters Say Obama Doesn't Deserve Second Term Word format Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey are locked in a 43 - 43 percent tie in their race for the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Rep. Sestak had 40 percent to Toomey's 42 percent in a May 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and trailed Toomey 42 - 34 percent in an April 8 survey. In today's results, Democrats back Sestak 77 - 11 percent while Republicans go with Toomey 82 - 11 percent. Independent voters back Toomey 44 - 35 percent, compared to 46 - 30 percent May 13. Toomey, a former congressman, is viewed favorably by 35 percent of voters and unfavorably by 13 percent, while 51 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Sestak gets a 31 - 20 percent favorability rating, while 47 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. "Congressman Joe Sestak, a decided underdog who knocked off U.S. Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary, has now closed an 8-point gap in the last three months to tie Pat Toomey," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But the Senate race remains wide open, since at this point about half of the voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion. "Perhaps Toomey can feel good that in recent months, when all the attention was on Sestak's primary win, he has limited the damage." President Barack Obama's negative 46 - 49 percent job approval rating is essentially unchanged from his negative 45 - 49 percent score April 8 and his negative 46 - 48 percent score May 13. It is, however, a dramatic fall from May of 2009, when it was 66 - 29 percent approve. The President's current job rating reflects 82 - 16 percent disapproval among Republicans, 76 - 19 percent approval among Democrats and 53 - 40 percent disapproval among independent voters. Pennsylvania voters say 48 - 42 percent that President Obama does not deserve reelection in 2012. In fact, 41 percent of voters say they would vote for an unnamed Republican candidate in 2012, while 40 percent say they would vote for Obama. Independent voters say they would go for a Republican 37 - 33 percent. "When a politician's approval rating is down 13 points among independent voters, that is generally a sign of political vulnerability," said Brown. "The 6-point margin held by those who say President Obama doesn't deserve a second term over those who think he does also should make the White House nervous, especially since Pennsylvania has not voted Republican for president since 1988. Here too, his weakness is among independents, who say 51 - 35 percent he does not deserve a second term." On other measures of the President, Pennsylvania voters: Split 46 - 45 percent of his handling of the war in Afghanistan, down from 51 - 41 percent approval in December; Disapprove 55 - 40 percent of Obama's handling of the economy; Disapprove 54 - 36 percent of Obama's handling of the gulf oil spill. From July 6 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,367 Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sestak 43% 11% 77% 35% 39% 47% 48% Toomey 43 82 11 44 50 38 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 12 7 10 19 9 14 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sestak 52% 60% 38% 44% 34% 46% 36% Toomey 32 18 47 42 57 42 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 15 21 14 11 6 11 8 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Data available upon request back to May 2009) Jul 14 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Jul 22 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Sestak 43 40 34 36 35 35 35 Toomey 43 42 42 39 40 38 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 12 16 22 24 22 25 23 3. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 35% 60% 17% 33% 43% 28% 33% Unfavorable 13 2 22 10 13 12 17 Hvn't hrd enough 51 37 60 54 42 59 48 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 33% 19% 42% 40% 32% 33% 37% Unfavorable 15 18 14 15 8 10 9 Hvn't hrd enough 50 62 43 44 59 54 52 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 35% Dec 2009) FAVORABLE..... High Low Jul 14 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Jul 14 Mar 25 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010* 2009 Favorable 35 29 29 26 35 35 14 Unfavorable 13 9 9 8 10 13 6 Hvn't hrd enough 51 60 61 65 55 51 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 31% 18% 43% 28% 31% 30% 38% Unfavorable 20 34 6 22 26 15 19 Hvn't hrd enough 47 46 49 47 40 53 41 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 32% 34% 28% 35% 29% 35% 25% Unfavorable 15 9 26 30 20 19 18 Hvn't hrd enough 49 55 42 33 51 44 56 REFUSED 4 2 4 2 - 3 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Low also 18% May 2009) FAVORABLE.... High Low Jul 14 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 May 13 Mar 2 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010 2010* Favorable 31 32 20 18 20 32 18 Unfavorable 20 14 11 6 9 14 6 Hvn't hrd enough 47 52 68 74 70 52 74 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 7. Is your opinion of - the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 39% 79% 11% 36% 43% 36% 38% Unfavorable 43 11 67 43 42 44 45 Hvn't hrd enough 14 6 19 16 11 16 13 REFUSED 3 3 2 5 4 3 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 35% 14% 47% 38% 43% 39% 50% Unfavorable 47 62 40 46 45 40 33 Hvn't hrd enough 16 22 12 11 8 18 13 REFUSED 2 2 1 5 5 3 5 TREND: Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? Jul 14 Apr 8 2010 2010 Favorable 39 41 Unfavorable 43 41 Hvn't hrd enough 14 13 REFUSED 3 5 8. Is your opinion of - the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 41% 9% 78% 28% 34% 48% 48% Unfavorable 45 79 9 53 55 35 41 Hvn't hrd enough 11 10 12 13 7 15 7 REFUSED 3 2 1 6 4 2 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 48% 64% 37% 47% 38% 37% 29% Unfavorable 37 22 50 43 51 47 53 Hvn't hrd enough 12 13 11 6 8 13 14 REFUSED 4 - 2 4 3 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? Jul 14 Apr 8 2010 2010 Favorable 41 41 Unfavorable 45 46 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 REFUSED 3 4 9. Is your opinion of - the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 34% 53% 9% 45% 44% 25% 30% Unfavorable 27 9 43 24 27 27 33 Hvn't hrd enough 37 35 45 31 27 46 36 REFUSED 2 2 2 - 2 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 32% 21% 35% 32% 35% 39% 39% Unfavorable 31 37 26 39 21 17 19 Hvn't hrd enough 35 42 36 26 43 44 41 REFUSED 1 - 3 3 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? Jul 14 Apr 8 2010 2010 Favorable 34 33 Unfavorable 27 30 Hvn't hrd enough 37 35 REFUSED 2 2 10. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 12% 22% 1% 16% 16% 10% 11% No 82 73 89 82 80 84 85 DK/NA 6 4 10 2 4 7 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 10% 4% 12% 12% 12% 21% 15% No 87 90 83 85 77 73 79 DK/NA 3 6 5 3 11 6 6 TREND: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not? Jul 14 Apr 8 2010 2010 Yes 12 14 No 82 80 DK/NA 6 6 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 46% 16% 76% 40% 40% 51% 51% Disapprove 49 82 19 53 57 42 44 DK/NA 5 3 5 8 3 7 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 14 May 13 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 May 4 Apr 8 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2010 Approve 46 46 45 49 49 66 45 Disapprove 49 48 49 46 45 29 49 DK/NA 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 16. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Obama 40% 6% 75% 33% 35% 45% 47% Republican 41 82 12 37 47 36 36 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 12 10 9 19 12 12 14 DK/NA 7 3 4 12 6 7 3 17. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes/deserves 42% 11% 73% 35% 36% 47% 49% No/does not 48 83 17 51 55 42 42 DK/NA 10 6 10 14 9 12 9 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 40% 13% 71% 32% 35% 46% 51% Disapprove 55 86 25 60 62 49 47 DK/NA 5 1 5 8 4 6 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? (*Low also 40% Apr 2010) APPROVE...... High Low Jul 14 Apr 8 Mar 2 Dec 18 Oct 1 Feb 12 Jul 14 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2010* Approve 40 40 44 45 46 59 40 Disapprove 55 55 51 50 47 26 55 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 7 16 5 24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 36% 17% 54% 35% 34% 39% 42% Disapprove 54 76 35 56 58 51 51 DK/NA 9 7 11 9 8 10 8 25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the situation in Afghanistan? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 46% 27% 60% 48% 46% 45% 49% Disapprove 45 64 31 42 47 43 44 DK/NA 10 9 9 10 7 12 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan? Jul 14 Dec 18 2010 2009 Approve 46 51 Disapprove 45 41 DK/NA 10 8 26. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Right thing 48% 61% 36% 50% 57% 39% 52% Shld not be invl 45 33 59 40 38 51 44 DK/NA 7 6 5 10 5 9 4 27. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 37% 11% 60% 34% 34% 39% 46% Disapprove 54 84 28 56 60 50 47 DK/NA 9 5 12 10 6 11 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 37% 62% 34% 46% 31% 25% 26% Disapprove 50 28 56 48 64 62 65 DK/NA 13 10 9 7 4 13 9 28. If your member of the U.S. House of Representatives voted for the health care overhaul plan, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her in November, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds More likely 19% 4% 34% 15% 17% 21% 23% Less likely 38 67 12 41 47 31 32 No difference 38 25 49 40 32 44 42 DK/NA 4 3 5 5 4 4 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl More likely 16% 34% 18% 25% 18% 11% 14% Less likely 33 18 37 38 55 44 44 No difference 48 41 41 31 26 43 39 DK/NA 3 8 4 6 1 3 3 TREND: If your member of the U.S. House of Representatives voted for the health care overhaul plan, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her in November, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? Jul 14 Apr 8 2010 2010 More likely 19 20 Less likely 38 39 No difference 38 39 DK/NA 4 3
