September 22, 2010 - Toomey Up 7 Points In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters, Especially Independents, Disapprove Of Obama Word format Republican Pat Toomey has hit the magic 50 percent mark as he leads Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak 50 - 43 percent in the race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today. Pennsylvania likely voters disapprove 56 - 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first general election survey of Pennsylvania likely voters in this election cycle cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. By a 52 - 43 percent margin, voters want a U.S. Senator who opposes rather than supports the president's policies and say 46 - 35 percent they want Republicans, rather than Democrats, to control the U.S. Senate after the November ballots are counted. Toomey is winning 86 - 9 percent among Republicans and losing 87 - 7 percent among Democrats. He holds a commanding 54 - 36 percent lead among independent voters, which provides his current lead overall. There is a very large gender gap in the Senate race, with Toomey ahead among male likely voters 58 - 37 percent and trailing among women likely voters 51 - 40 percent. The gender gap on the president's job performance is even wider with women approving 50 - 43 percent, while men disapprove by more than two-to-one, 66 - 31 percent. "Pat Toomey is in a good place, ahead by 7 points with six weeks to go. But Congressman Joe Sestak has proven himself a tough competitor so it's too early to order the champagne," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Toomey's lead among independents is why he is ahead. With only 7 percent of the likely voters undecided and another 14 percent who are for a candidate saying they might change their mind, the battle for the Senate seat appears likely to come down to a relatively small number of voters and in the final weeks expect the campaigns to target their messages for those undecided and softly committed voters," Brown added. The candidates are evenly matched when it comes to voter opinion: By a 44 - 31 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Toomey, while 23 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Sestak gets a 44 - 34 percent favorability, while 20 percent haven't formed an opinion. "Among likely voters, President Barack Obama is a drag on Sestak's candidacy," said Brown. "The president has a low approval rating and voters want their new senator to oppose, rather than support, the president's policies." By 47 - 41 percent, likely Pennsylvania voters say Toomey rather than Sestak shares their values. And 41 percent of all voters say "shared values" is the most important quality they seek in a candidate, while 25 percent cite the ability to bring change to Washington. Another 23 percent are looking for someone who is honest and trustworthy and 7 percent want the candidate with the right experience. Pennsylvania likely voters are strongly negative on the federal health care overhaul passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama last March. By 59 - 34 percent, including 63 - 32 percent among independents, they give the plan thumbs down. On the war in Afghanistan likely voters say the United States is doing the right thing fighting there, 49 - 42 percent. Support for the Obama policy is stronger among Republicans, who back the war 61 - 29 percent, while Democrats oppose it 56 - 37 percent. Independents support the war by a narrow 49 - 44 percent. From September 15 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 684 Pennsylvania likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Sestak or Toomey? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sestak 43 9 87 36 37 51 Toomey 50 86 7 54 58 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 7 10 5 9 6a. (If candidate choice q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CAND CHOICE Q2 Tot JS PT Made up 85% 84% 86% Might change 14 15 14 DK/NA 1 1 - 7. (If Sestak voter q6) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Sestak or against Toomey? (*Subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY SESTAK VOTERS.................. Tot *Rep Dem Ind Men Wom For Sestak 64 69 58 61 67 Against Toomey 30 25 35 36 24 DK/NA 6 6 7 3 8 8. (If Toomey voter q6) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Toomey or against Sestak? (*Subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY TOOMEY VOTERS.................. Tot Rep *Dem Ind Men Wom For Toomey 73 77 65 73 73 Against Sestak 18 14 26 19 17 DK/NA 9 9 9 9 10 9. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 44 71 12 46 51 35 Unfavorable 31 6 62 27 28 34 Hvn't hrd enough 23 22 24 25 20 28 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 2 10. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 44 20 78 34 41 49 Unfavorable 34 55 8 39 41 25 Hvn't hrd enough 20 24 12 25 17 23 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 3 11. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for United States Senator; the candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Washington, or shares your values? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Honest and trustworthy 23 21 26 24 23 22 Right experience 7 4 10 8 4 11 Can bring change 25 26 22 28 26 24 Shares values 41 48 38 34 42 39 DK/NA 4 2 5 7 4 4 CAND CHOICE Q6 JS PT Honest and trustworthy 25% 21% Right experience 7 6 Can bring change 24 25 Shares values 40 44 DK/NA 4 4 12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values Joe Sestak or Pat Toomey? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sestak 41 8 83 35 35 50 Toomey 47 78 8 52 55 36 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 1 DK/NA 10 12 7 11 8 13 13. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Pennsylvania generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 43 7 87 38 34 54 Oppose 52 89 9 53 62 39 DK/NA 5 4 4 9 4 7 14. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.S Senate next year, or doesn't it matter to you? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Democrats 35 2 84 28 27 46 Republicans 46 86 4 48 55 35 Doesn't matter 16 10 11 23 16 16 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 2 3 15. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a United States Senator; someone with years of government experience or a government outsider? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Experience 34 28 57 19 26 45 Outsider 48 58 25 55 56 37 DK/NA 18 14 17 26 18 18 CAND CHOICE Q6 JS PT Experience 51% 19% Outsider 30 65 DK/NA 19 16 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 40 7 83 37 31 50 Disapprove 56 91 11 59 66 43 DK/NA 4 2 5 4 2 7 27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 39 9 80 36 34 47 Disapprove 58 89 15 62 65 48 DK/NA 3 2 5 2 1 5 28. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom The right thing 49 61 37 49 56 41 Shld'nt be involved 42 29 56 44 36 49 DK/NA 9 10 7 8 8 10 29. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 34 6 69 32 31 39 Disapprove 59 90 21 63 66 50 DK/NA 6 4 10 5 3 11
