October 21, 2010 - Sestak Closes Gap In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Voters Want Their Senator To Oppose Obama Word format The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat is now a statistical dead heat with Republican Pat Toomey getting 48 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 50 - 43 percent likely voter lead for Toomey, a former congressman, in a September 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Toomey is beating Sestak 88 - 8 percent among Republicans and 56 - 35 percent among independent voters. But Sestak is winning 89 - 7 percent among Democrats. Thirteen percent of Toomey's voters and 9 percent of Sestak backers say they might change their mind before Election Day. The 5 percent of undecided voters includes 9 percent of independent voters. "Pennsylvania is a blue state and Democrats there have begun to come home," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "They are more engaged than they were earlier in the race. This is not unusual, especially in off-year elections. Democrats often engage later in the campaign than do Republicans. The political environment is more favorable now for them, as evidenced by President Barack Obama's improved, but still decidedly negative, job approval rating." President Obama gets a negative 44 - 53 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 40 - 56 percent September 22. There is a sizable gender gap in the Senate race, with Toomey leading 54 - 40 percent among men and Sestak ahead 53 - 41 percent among women. "Sestak's lead among women has remained virtually unchanged over the past month, but Toomey's once 21-point lead among men has been cut by seven points," said Brown. Pennsylvania likely voters' views of the economy are strongly tied to their candidate preference. Among the 14 percent who think the economy is improving, Sestak leads 84 - 14 percent, while Toomey leads 70 - 23 percent among the 35 percent who think it is worsening. Sestak leads 51 - 44 percent among the 49 percent who think it is remaining the same. Despite the recent Democratic lean in Pennsylvania politics, likely voters say 51 - 43 percent that they want their new U.S. senator to oppose rather than support President Obama's policies. Voters also say 45 - 38 percent they want Republicans, rather than Democrats, to control the U.S. Senate next year. "There is still a mood in the likely Pennsylvania electorate for change, which appears more likely to help Toomey than Sestak," said Brown. "Among the 33 percent of likely voters who say they are angry with the federal government, Toomey leads 77 - 17 percent. "This is now a very close race in factors beyond the matchup. When voters are asked which candidate most shares their values they split 44 - 44 percent. Sestak is viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent. Toomey gets thumbs up from 46 percent and thumbs down from 37 percent," said Brown. From October 13 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,046 Pennsylvania likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Sestak or Toomey? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sestak 46% 8% 89% 35% 40% 53% Toomey 48 88 7 56 54 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 4 9 5 5 RATING ECONOMY Q17 ANGRY WITH GOVERNMENT Better Worse Same FedQ19 Sestak 84% 23% 51% 17% Toomey 14 70 44 77 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 2 7 5 6 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Sestak or Toomey? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 21 Sep 22 2010 2010 Sestak 46 43 Toomey 48 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 5 7 4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CAND CHOICE Q4 Tot JS PT Made up 88% 90% 87% Might change 11 9 13 DK/NA 1 1 - 5. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 14% 80% 37% 43% 49% Unfavorable 36 59 6 47 39 32 Hvn't hrd enough 18 24 14 14 18 18 REFUSED 1 2 - 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 21 Sep 22 2010 2010 Favorable 45 44 Unfavorable 36 34 Hvn't hrd enough 18 20 REFUSED 1 2 6. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 46% 78% 10% 55% 52% 40% Unfavorable 37 7 72 29 33 42 Hvn't hrd enough 15 14 18 14 14 17 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 21 Sep 22 2010 2010 Favorable 46 44 Unfavorable 37 31 Hvn't hrd enough 15 23 REFUSED 1 2 7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values,Joe Sestak or Pat Toomey? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Sestak 44% 10% 85% 33% 40% 50% Toomey 44 80 5 50 49 37 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 3 1 2 6 3 2 DK/NA 10 10 8 11 9 11 8. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Pennsylvania generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 43% 8% 85% 30% 38% 50% Oppose 51 88 10 63 56 46 DK/NA 5 4 5 7 6 4 9. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.S Senate next year, or doesn't it matter to you? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Democrats 38 3 83 23 34 44 Republicans 45 86 5 50 49 40 Doesn't matter 14 10 11 23 15 13 DK/NA 3 1 1 5 3 2 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 11% 85% 30% 39% 50% Disapprove 53 87 13 64 57 47 DK/NA 3 2 2 6 4 3 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 40% 10% 77% 26% 36% 45% Disapprove 55 89 17 68 60 49 DK/NA 4 1 6 6 3 6 16. Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excellent - - - - - - Good 17 9 22 17 16 17 Not so good 52 50 56 50 53 51 Poor 30 41 19 32 29 31 DK/NA 1 - 3 1 1 1 17. Do you think Pennsylvania's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better 14% 2% 24% 15% 13% 16% Worse 35 51 17 39 34 37 The same 49 47 57 46 51 47 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 1 19. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Enthusiastic, 4% - 9% 1% 3% 6% Satisfied 22 7 41 16 21 23 Dissatisfied 41 42 39 39 39 43 Angry 33 50 11 43 37 28 DK/NA - 1 - - - 1
