February 17, 2011 - Obama Approval Up In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Casey Has Big Jump, But Many Still Don't Know Him Word format President Barack Obama's job rating among Pennsylvania voters is 51 - 44 percent, his highest standing in the Commonwealth since July 2009 when it was 56 - 33 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But Pennsylvania voters tell the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey they oppose two of President Obama's key issues: Voters say 52 - 40 percent that the U.S. should not be involved in Afghanistan; Voters say 48 - 42 percent that Congress should repeal Obama's health care reform. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. has a 44 - 24 percent approval rating, but even after four years in office, 31 percent of the state's voters are undecided about him. By 46 - 28 percent, voters say Casey deserves another term in office. "President Barack Obama's approval numbers are up substantially since December 16, when the Commonwealth's voters split 44 - 43 percent on his job approval," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Obama's approval rating has been going up nationally as well, and the 7-point jump in approval since December in this pivotal swing state should be good news in the White House." Obama's reversal is fueled in part by his improved standing among independent voters. In December, they split on his job performance 41 - 42 percent; now they approve 50 - 46 percent. Democrats now approve 81 - 14 percent, compared to 72 - 17 percent in December, while Republicans disapprove 80 - 15 percent, compared to 75 - 18 percent in December. His strength is largely among women who give him a thumbs-up 55 - 39 percent, while men split 47 - 49 percent. Asked about the 2012 election, 45 percent say they would vote for the president and 39 percent say they would vote for the Republican who runs against him. By a narrow 48 - 45 percent Pennsylvania voters say Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office. Although Obama is becoming personally more popular, more Pennsylvania voters reject his positions on health care and Afghanistan. Calling for repeal of the health care reform legislation are Republicans 81 - 12 percent and independent voters 47 - 40 percent. Democrats back the reform 69 - 22 percent. Shifting to support the president, Republicans say 55 - 36 percent that fighting in Afghanistan is the right thing to do. The U.S. should not be involved, Democrats say 61 - 29 percent and independent voters say 54 - 39 percent. "The president seems to be more popular than his stance on some major issues," said Brown. "On the war especially, public opinion has turned in recent months. Just last July, Pennsylvania voters said 48 - 45 percent that fighting in Afghanistan was the right thing to do." Sen. Casey's 44 - 24 percent job approval score is a jump from his 39 - 29 percent approval rating in Quinnipiac University's December 16 poll. In today's survey, Democrats approve 58 - 10 percent and independent voters approve 42 - 30 percent. He gets a negative 32 - 37 percent score from Republicans. "Although Sen. Bob Casey, the son of a former governor with the same name, was a statewide elected official for eight years as state auditor general and has served four years as senator, it is somewhat surprising that 31 percent of Pennsylvania voters haven't decided whether they think he is doing a good job," Brown said. "That's not that much lower than the 39 percent who don't have an opinion about the Commonwealth's other senator, Pat Toomey, who has been in office just six week." Pennsylvania voters say 45 - 35 percent they say they would vote for Casey against the Republican nominee in 2012. Toomey's approval rating is 41 - 21 percent. From February 8 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,366 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 51% 15% 81% 50% 47% 55% 55% Disapprove 44 80 14 46 49 39 40 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 52% 85% 50% 55% 49% 38% 37% Disapprove 43 12 43 41 47 57 57 DK/NA 4 3 7 3 4 5 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Feb 17 Dec 16 Jul 14 May 13 Apr 08 May 04 Dec 16 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010 Approve 51 44 46 46 45 66 44 Disapprove 44 43 49 48 49 29 43 DK/NA 5 13 5 6 6 5 13 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 44% 32% 58% 42% 41% 48% 43% Disapprove 24 37 10 30 30 19 25 DK/NA 31 31 32 29 29 33 32 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 39% 59% 49% 45% 35% 35% 46% Disapprove 27 16 22 21 30 42 22 DK/NA 34 25 29 34 36 23 33 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Feb 17 Dec 16 Jul 13 May 13 Apr 8 May 28 Dec 16 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010 Approve 44 39 48 47 48 56 39 Disapprove 24 29 29 30 30 21 29 DK/NA 31 32 23 23 22 23 32 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 41% 61% 25% 43% 44% 37% 40% Disapprove 21 9 30 20 19 22 23 DK/NA 39 30 45 37 36 41 37 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 32% 35% 36% 40% 43% 50% 45% Disapprove 20 27 28 22 21 13 16 DK/NA 47 38 35 38 36 37 39 6. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Obama 45% 4% 82% 43% 42% 48% 54% Republican 39 87 7 33 41 37 29 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 11 8 7 19 11 11 11 DK/NA 5 2 5 6 6 4 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 54% 80% 39% 49% 43% 32% 29% Republican 32 10 35 39 42 44 55 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 10 17 9 8 19 11 DK/NA 6 1 9 3 8 5 5 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2010 Obama 45 41 Republican 39 37 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 11 14 DK/NA 5 8 7. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes 48% 7% 82% 47% 44% 51% 56% No/Does not 45 86 12 42 48 42 38 DK/NA 8 6 6 11 8 8 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 54% 84% 44% 52% 41% 37% 30% No/Does not 39 11 45 42 44 59 60 DK/NA 7 5 10 6 14 3 10 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Feb 17 Jul 14 2011 2010 Yes/deserves 48 42 No/does not 45 48 DK/NA 8 10 8. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Casey 45% 8% 80% 38% 42% 47% 57% Republican 35 78 6 30 38 32 24 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 8 6 15 9 10 9 DK/NA 11 6 8 17 11 11 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 54% 70% 48% 43% 34% 41% 32% Republican 34 15 33 33 40 36 45 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 4 11 6 10 7 16 10 DK/NA 8 5 13 14 19 8 12 TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2010 Casey 45 43 Republican 35 35 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 11 DK/NA 11 11 9. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes 46% 19% 72% 43% 44% 48% 57% No/Does not 28 52 7 32 34 23 23 DK/NA 26 29 22 26 22 29 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 46% 64% 51% 45% 34% 47% 38% No/Does not 29 13 28 30 33 35 30 DK/NA 25 22 21 25 32 18 32 TREND: Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2010 Yes 46 40 No/Does not 28 33 DK/NA 26 27 10. Do you think Barack Obama is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Liberal 39% 75% 10% 39% 44% 34% 34% Conservative 6 4 10 4 8 5 11 About right 47 11 76 48 42 53 50 DK/NA 7 10 4 8 7 8 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Liberal 36% 8% 40% 40% 41% 49% 49% Conservative 7 5 5 5 9 5 8 About right 51 86 45 50 45 35 32 DK/NA 6 1 9 5 5 10 11 TREND: Do you think Barack Obama is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Feb 17 Dec 16 May 01 2011 2010 2008 Liberal 39 38 35 Conservative 6 7 5 About right 47 45 49 DK/NA 7 10 12 11. Do you think Bob Casey Jr. is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Liberal 22% 40% 5% 25% 27% 17% 21% Conservative 9 4 11 12 10 8 8 About right 46 28 64 43 44 47 54 DK/NA 24 28 20 21 19 28 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Liberal 19% 8% 24% 22% 25% 31% 24% Conservative 13 8 5 9 5 12 8 About right 41 68 50 42 47 34 43 DK/NA 27 16 21 26 23 23 24 TREND: Do you think Bob Casey Jr. is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Feb 17 Dec 16 Feb 13 Dec 13 2011 2010 2006 2005 Liberal 22 24 11 15 Conservative 9 7 7 7 About right 46 43 49 51 DK/NA 24 25 32 27 12. Do you think Bob Casey Jr. generally shares the views of Barack Obama on major issues or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes 51% 53% 51% 49% 54% 48% 54% No 18 20 12 23 21 15 18 DK/NA 31 27 36 28 26 37 28 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 46% 58% 50% 53% 47% 54% 48% No 19 7 21 21 15 19 19 DK/NA 35 35 29 26 38 27 33 TREND: Do you think Bob Casey Jr. generally shares the views of Barack Obama on major issues or not? Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2010 Yes 51 50 No 18 16 DK/NA 31 34 30. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now,or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? Military Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Right thing 40% 55% 29% 39% 47% 32% 41% Suld'nt be invlvd 52 36 61 54 46 57 52 DK/NA 9 9 9 7 7 11 7 TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? Feb 17 Dec 16 Jul 14 2011 2010 2010 Right thing 40 38 48 Shld not be invl 52 56 45 DK/NA 9 6 7 31. Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Repeal it 48% 81% 22% 47% 54% 43% 39% Let it stand 42 12 69 40 38 46 49 DK/NA 10 7 9 13 8 11 12 TREND: Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand? Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2010 Repeal it 48 45 Let it stand 42 45 DK/NA 10 10
