June 15, 2011 - Santorum Trails Romney, Obama In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Casey Runs Strong, But Short Of 50 Percent Mark Word format Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among Keystone State Republicans and trails President Barack Obama 49 - 38 percent in an early look at the 2012 presidential election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Romney leads the Republican primary pack with 21 percent, followed by Santorum with 16 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with 11 percent and no other candidate above 8 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Another 17 percent of Republicans are undecided. In possible presidential election matchups, President Obama tops Romney 47 - 40 percent and leads Santorum 49 - 38 percent. Independent voters back Obama, 41 - 37 percent over Romney and 46 - 35 percent over Santorum. Obama gets a split 48 - 48 percent job approval rating in Pennsylvania, compared to a negative 42 - 53 percent April 28, his lowest Quinnipiac University poll number in the Keystone State. Independent voters split 48 - 47 percent, compared to a negative 37 - 57 percent April 28th. Voters say 48 - 46 percent that Obama deserves to be reelected, also up from a negative 42 - 52 percent. Again, independent voters go from a negative 37 - 56 percent April 28 to a slightly negative 46 - 49 percent today. "Whether it's still the Osama bin Laden bounce or because voters are taking a closer look at the alternatives, President Barack Obama's fortunes in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state in presidential elections, has improved - at least for now," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Independent voters, a critical bloc, have shifted dramatically in the six weeks since President Obama suffered his all-time low in Pennsylvania." "Native son Rick Santorum is not feeling the love among Pennsylvania Republicans or among voters in general," Malloy added. "But Santorum does better in a GOP primary than other more nationally-known candidates such as Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, who gets just 5 percent of the Republican vote." Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. Pennsylvania voters approve 47 - 26 percent of the job Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., is doing, with 27 percent undecided. Republicans are split 37 - 38 percent, with 24 percent undecided. Voters say 47 - 31 percent, including 46 - 34 percent among independent voters, that Casey deserves to be reelected in 2012. Running against an unnamed Republican challenger, Casey wins 47 - 32 percent, including 44 - 26 percent among independent voters. "You can't beat somebody with nobody and right now nobody is emerging as a possible Republican challenger to Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.," Malloy said. "Pennsylvania voters like their senior senator, but more than one-in-four are undecided. And in three measures, job approval, deserves reelection and Casey v. nobody, Casey is short of that magic 50 percent mark that allows incumbents to sleep more comfortably at night." First-term Sen. Pat Toomey has a 45 - 28 percent approval rating. From June 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,277 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 523 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain for whom would you vote? Tot Men Wom Palin 11% 12% 11% Gingrich 5 7 3 Romney 21 18 24 Pawlenty 4 4 3 Bachmann 5 8 3 Johnson - 1 - Santorum 16 15 18 Paul 6 8 5 Huntsman 1 2 - Cain 8 8 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 17 14 20 2. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Obama 49% 10% 85% 46% 44% 53% 53% Santorum 38 79 5 35 42 35 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 1 6 5 2 3 DK/NA 7 6 7 7 6 7 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 55% 81% 41% 56% 36% 48% 35% Santorum 31 12 44 34 46 38 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 5 3 3 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 5 3 6 4 4 DK/NA 11 6 6 4 9 6 7 3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Obama 47% 9% 86% 41% 41% 52% 53% Romney 40 84 7 37 44 37 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 7 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 1 7 5 2 2 DK/NA 6 4 6 9 6 7 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 52% 79% 45% 54% 28% 46% 33% Romney 39 15 40 39 54 40 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 5 2 3 1 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 5 2 4 7 5 DK/NA 6 5 6 3 10 7 9 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 48% 11% 80% 48% 43% 52% 49% Disapprove 48 86 16 47 54 43 47 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 3 5 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 53% 77% 40% 53% 37% 48% 37% Disapprove 40 19 58 43 60 51 59 DK/NA 7 4 3 4 3 1 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 Jul 14 May 04 Apr 28 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2009 2011 Approve 48 42 51 44 46 66 42 Disapprove 48 53 44 43 49 29 53 DK/NA 4 5 5 13 5 5 5 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 47% 37% 62% 39% 45% 48% 51% Disapprove 26 38 14 29 31 23 25 DK/NA 27 24 24 32 24 29 24 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 45% 51% 45% 39% 45% 57% 48% Disapprove 33 23 25 28 34 20 25 DK/NA 22 26 30 33 21 23 27 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 Jul 13 May 28 Dec 16 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2009 2010 Approve 47 44 44 39 48 56 39 Disapprove 26 26 24 29 29 21 29 DK/NA 27 30 31 32 23 23 32 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 45% 63% 37% 39% 48% 43% 40% Disapprove 28 17 35 30 29 26 29 DK/NA 27 21 28 32 23 31 30 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 47% 41% 48% 41% 43% 44% 50% Disapprove 25 27 25 25 33 34 27 DK/NA 28 32 27 34 24 22 23 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator? Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 2011 2011 2011 Approve 45 43 41 Disapprove 28 25 21 DK/NA 27 31 39 10. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes/Deserves 48% 10% 84% 46% 44% 52% 49% No/Does not 46 84 10 49 51 41 46 DK/NA 6 6 6 5 5 7 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves 53% 80% 40% 55% 32% 44% 37% No/Does not 41 15 52 41 60 54 55 DK/NA 6 4 8 5 9 2 7 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 Jul 14 2011 2011 2011 2010 Yes/deserves 48 42 48 42 No/does not 46 52 45 48 DK/NA 6 6 8 10 11. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Casey 47% 9% 83% 44% 44% 50% 52% Republican 32 74 3 26 37 28 27 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 10 9 5 15 10 9 9 DK/NA 11 8 9 16 9 13 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 48% 78% 46% 45% 37% 47% 37% Republican 28 7 35 31 46 31 41 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 6 8 11 6 13 12 DK/NA 15 9 12 13 11 9 10 TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2011 2011 2010 Casey 47 46 45 43 Republican 32 34 35 35 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 10 9 9 11 DK/NA 11 11 11 11 12. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes/Deserves 47% 26% 70% 46% 48% 47% 54% No/Does not 31 50 12 34 36 27 28 DK/NA 21 24 18 20 17 26 18 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves 48% 65% 47% 45% 39% 50% 43% No/Does not 35 16 28 29 40 31 37 DK/NA 17 19 25 25 21 19 20 TREND: Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2011 2011 2010 Yes/deserves 47 48 46 40 No/Does not 31 31 28 33 DK/NA 21 21 26 27
