September 28, 2011 - Pennsylvania Voters Want Winner-Take-All, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Ties Romney, Tops Perry Or Santorum Word format By a slight 52 - 40 percent majority, Pennsylvania voters want to continue the state's current winner-take-all Electoral College system, rather than switch to a system where Electoral College votes are awarded based on the winner in each congressional district, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters say 57 - 32 percent that Republicans in the State Legislature want to switch to a district-by-district count to help Republican presidential candidates, rather than to better reflect the will of the voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. And voters say 51 - 38 percent that the switch will diminish Pennsylvania's importance as a key presidential swing state. Keep winner-take-all, Democrats say 63 - 30 percent and independent voters say 53 - 43 percent. Republicans are divided 44 - 48 percent. Support for the current system is strongest in Southeast Pennsylvania, 62 - 34 percent, and Philadelphia, 59 - 29 percent. Support for a shift to district-by-district is strongest in Northwest Pennsylvania, 49 - 48 percent. The shift would help Republicans, Democrats say 78 - 14 percent and independent voters say 61 - 30 percent. Republicans say 57 - 29 percent the switch would better reflect voter will. "Pennsylvania voters say stick to the winner-take-all formula used in most states: Whoever gets the most popular votes, wins all of the state's Electoral College votes," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The survey, not surprisingly, comes down along party lines. With 20 electoral votes at stake in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, Republicans see an advantage in having electoral votes divided between candidates based on the individual congressional districts they win." "Democrats especially are opposed, while independent voters side with them. Strangely, Republicans are not strongly in favor of the change," Malloy added. "Pennsylvania voters think abandoning the traditional Electoral College formula would reduce the state's swing state clout. "Overall, most Pennsylvanians think the proposal is being presented to give partisan advantage to Republicans. By large margins, Democrats and independent voters are not buying that 'will of the voters' argument." In the Republican presidential primary race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has 18 percent, with 16 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 12 percent for former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, 8 percent for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and no other candidate, including Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, above 6 percent. In an early look at the 2012 presidential election: President Barack Obama gets 45 percent to 43 percent for Romney, a tie and virtually unchanged from the August 2 Quinnipiac University poll; President Obama tops Perry 46 - 40 percent, also virtually unchanged; Obama beats Santorum 45 - 42 percent, compared to 45 - 43 percent. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 54 - 43 percent of the job Obama is doing, unchanged from the results August 2. Voters say 51 - 44 percent that Obama does not deserve a second term, compared to 52 - 42 percent August 2. "Despite the debates and the fiery campaign rhetoric, there is not much movement in the presidential race," Malloy said. "Despite spotty debate performances, Perry has crept up on Romney, moving 8 points since August 2, before he formally announced his candidacy." U.S. Sen. Robert Casey, Jr., gets a 46 - 30 percent approval rating and voters say 48 - 31 percent that he deserves another six-year term. Casey tops an unnamed Republican challenger 50 - 31 percent. From September 21 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,370 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 541 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.............. PrtOf WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom TeaPty Evnglcl Palin 8% 7% 9% 10% 8% Gingrich 4 5 4 6 4 Romney 18 21 15 12 9 Bachmann 6 5 7 8 6 Perry 16 18 13 20 16 Santorum 12 11 14 11 15 Paul 5 9 2 10 7 Huntsman 2 2 2 - 1 Cain 5 8 3 7 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 - 1 DK/NA 19 13 26 13 24 TREND: (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain for whom would you vote? (na=not asked) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 2011 2011 2011 Palin 8 12 11 Gingrich 4 4 5 Romney 18 21 21 Bachmann 6 11 5 Perry 16 8 na Santorum 12 14 16 Paul 5 5 6 Huntsman 2 1 1 Cain 5 4 8 Pawlenty na 2 4 McCotter na - na Johnson na na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 DK/NA 19 14 17 2. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Obama 45% 5% 79% 45% 42% 47% 48% Santorum 42 84 10 38 44 39 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 5 3 4 4 DK/NA 8 6 7 10 7 8 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 56% 76% 42% 49% 29% 32% 35% Santorum 32 15 40 37 53 55 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 4 3 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 1 3 10 5 3 DK/NA 4 7 13 9 7 6 7 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote? Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 2011 2011 2011 Obama 45 45 49 Santorum 42 43 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 4 DK/NA 8 7 7 3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Obama 45% 5% 82% 40% 40% 48% 49% Romney 43 85 9 44 48 39 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 8 5 8 11 8 8 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 49% 75% 40% 49% 32% 34% 35% Romney 37 17 44 40 59 55 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - 1 2 3 3 2 DK/NA 8 8 13 6 5 6 9 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 2011 2011 2011 Obama 45 42 47 Romney 43 44 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 4 DK/NA 8 8 6 4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Obama 46% 5% 82% 45% 43% 49% 49% Perry 40 86 7 36 44 37 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 2 3 3 DK/NA 8 5 8 12 8 9 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 52% 78% 42% 52% 34% 34% 36% Perry 36 14 41 35 52 51 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - 2 3 6 4 2 DK/NA 6 6 11 7 8 9 9 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sep 28 Aug 02 2011 2011 Obama 46 45 Perry 40 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 8 10 5. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election next year - are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds More 31% 47% 22% 26% 36% 26% 29% Less 23 13 27 27 20 25 23 About the same 46 39 50 46 43 47 47 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl More 24% 36% 32% 31% 30% 36% 29% Less 28 18 24 23 23 24 22 About the same 46 45 44 45 46 40 48 DK/NA 3 1 1 1 1 - 1 6. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Favorable 45% 6% 80% 43% 42% 48% 48% Unfavorable 49 89 15 49 54 45 46 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 1 4 2 3 2 REFUSED 3 3 4 4 2 4 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 52% 77% 43% 51% 30% 32% 34% Unfavorable 46 19 52 44 67 58 58 Hvn't hrd enough - 1 2 2 2 6 4 REFUSED 2 3 4 3 1 4 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Sep 28 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 27 May 22 Feb 8 2011 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 Favorable 45 50 49 49 49 50 39 Unfavorable 49 34 32 31 26 34 15 Hvn't hrd enough 2 13 15 18 22 13 45 REFUSED 3 3 4 3 2 3 1 7. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Favorable 33% 60% 14% 30% 35% 31% 30% Unfavorable 37 15 53 42 40 35 42 Hvn't hrd enough 29 25 32 27 25 33 26 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 28% 16% 32% 34% 35% 42% 39% Unfavorable 54 42 28 42 30 33 33 Hvn't hrd enough 17 41 38 24 35 24 27 REFUSED 1 2 2 - - 1 2 8. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Favorable 32% 52% 15% 37% 37% 28% 32% Unfavorable 28 11 42 28 30 27 35 Hvn't hrd enough 37 37 41 31 31 44 32 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 29% 22% 33% 35% 32% 27% 38% Unfavorable 39 30 26 34 21 22 26 Hvn't hrd enough 29 47 39 29 46 48 36 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Sep 28 Dec 5 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Sep 29 Feb 8 2011 2007 2007 2007 2007 2011 2007 Favorable 32 23 24 25 17 32 12 Unfavorable 28 23 23 23 19 28 11 Hvn't hrd enough 37 53 51 50 63 37 76 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 9. Is your opinion of - Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Favorable 20% 43% 4% 15% 23% 17% 19% Unfavorable 33 10 50 37 36 30 38 Hvn't hrd enough 47 47 46 47 41 53 43 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 20% 9% 20% 14% 20% 23% 27% Unfavorable 35 37 33 40 26 21 31 Hvn't hrd enough 44 53 47 45 53 56 41 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 46% 32% 60% 44% 42% 49% 53% Disapprove 30 41 20 33 37 25 32 DK/NA 24 27 19 24 21 26 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 41% 56% 40% 43% 39% 46% 48% Disapprove 34 23 35 32 30 37 28 DK/NA 25 21 25 25 31 18 24 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 May 28 Dec 16 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2010 Approve 46 48 47 44 44 56 39 Disapprove 30 29 26 26 24 21 29 DK/NA 24 23 27 30 31 23 32 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 43% 61% 31% 41% 48% 38% 39% Disapprove 32 16 43 34 30 34 41 DK/NA 26 23 26 24 22 28 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 42% 36% 44% 42% 34% 43% 48% Disapprove 30 31 29 40 30 31 28 DK/NA 28 33 27 18 36 26 24 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator? Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 43 44 45 43 41 Disapprove 32 31 28 25 21 DK/NA 26 25 27 31 39 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 43% 6% 77% 41% 39% 47% 44% Disapprove 54 92 19 57 58 50 52 DK/NA 3 2 4 3 3 3 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 46% 77% 42% 45% 31% 26% 36% Disapprove 49 22 54 52 67 68 62 DK/NA 5 1 4 3 2 5 2 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 May 04 Apr 28 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2011 Approve 43 43 48 42 51 66 42 Disapprove 54 54 48 53 44 29 53 DK/NA 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 25% 5% 45% 25% 22% 29% 25% Disapprove 69 91 49 71 74 65 71 DK/NA 5 4 6 4 4 7 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 30% 44% 25% 25% 18% 22% 20% Disapprove 67 49 68 69 77 74 76 DK/NA 3 7 7 6 5 4 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? Sep 28 Aug 02 2011 2011 Approve 25 28 Disapprove 69 67 DK/NA 5 5 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 24% 46% 8% 22% 27% 22% 21% Disapprove 70 48 89 72 69 71 73 DK/NA 6 7 3 6 4 7 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 26% 11% 21% 26% 25% 29% 28% Disapprove 71 84 67 69 70 68 66 DK/NA 2 5 12 4 4 3 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? Sep 28 Aug 02 2011 2011 Approve 24 28 Disapprove 70 68 DK/NA 6 5 17. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes 13% 26% 2% 13% 15% 12% 12% No 83 68 96 84 81 84 81 DK/NA 4 6 2 3 4 4 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 17% 9% 12% 8% 15% 19% 17% No 80 90 80 88 78 76 81 DK/NA 4 2 8 3 7 4 3 TREND: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not? Sep 28 Jul 14 Apr 8 2011 2010 2010 Yes 13 12 14 No 83 82 80 DK/NA 4 6 6 19. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes/Deserves 44% 6% 77% 44% 41% 47% 47% No/Does not 51 92 19 49 54 49 47 DK/NA 5 2 5 7 5 5 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves 52% 78% 39% 48% 33% 26% 35% No/Does not 45 15 55 47 62 69 60 DK/NA 3 7 6 5 4 6 4 TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 Jul 14 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 Yes/deserves 44 42 48 42 48 42 No/does not 51 52 46 52 45 48 DK/NA 5 6 6 6 8 10 20. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Casey 50% 12% 86% 47% 44% 54% 55% Republican 31 70 4 27 35 27 31 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 10 3 13 9 8 8 DK/NA 10 8 7 13 11 10 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 51% 74% 47% 50% 44% 49% 41% Republican 28 11 31 32 38 37 36 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 13 6 8 5 8 5 13 DK/NA 8 9 15 12 10 9 9 TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 Casey 50 47 47 46 45 43 Republican 31 35 32 34 35 35 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 8 10 9 9 11 DK/NA 10 10 11 11 11 11 21. Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes/Deserves 48% 24% 73% 45% 46% 50% 53% No/Does not 31 54 11 33 36 27 34 DK/NA 20 22 16 22 18 23 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves 48% 63% 45% 46% 40% 53% 46% No/Does not 36 13 40 31 33 34 33 DK/NA 16 24 15 23 28 13 22 TREND: Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 Yes/deserves 48 47 47 48 46 40 No/does not 31 33 31 31 28 33 DK/NA 20 19 21 21 26 27 30. In a presidential election all of Pennsylvania's electoral votes go to the statewide popular vote winner. There is a proposal in the legislature to divide Pennsylvania's electoral votes between candidates based on the number of congressional districts they win. Which comes closer to your view: A) Pennsylvania should continue to award all of its electoral votes to the statewide popular vote winner, OR B) Pennsylvania should divide its electoral votes between candidates based on the congressional districts they win? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds All 52% 44% 63% 53% 56% 49% 55% By district 40 48 30 43 39 41 42 DK/NA 7 9 7 5 5 10 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl All 55% 59% 51% 62% 48% 50% 44% By district 36 29 39 34 49 45 47 DK/NA 9 12 10 4 4 5 8 31. If Pennsylvania does split its electoral votes by congressional district, do you think it will hurt Pennsylvania's importance as a key swing state in Presidential elections, or don't you think it will affect Pennsylvania's importance as a key swing state in presidential elections? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes/Will hurt 51% 43% 60% 50% 54% 48% 56% No/Won't affect 38 42 31 40 38 38 36 DK/NA 11 15 9 9 7 14 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Will hurt 54% 60% 44% 56% 60% 46% 45% No/Won't affect 37 28 40 39 32 44 40 DK/NA 10 11 16 5 9 10 15 32. Which comes closer to your view regarding the Republicans who are proposing to split the State's electoral votes by congressional district: A) The Republicans are doing this because they think it will help them win the presidential election, OR B) The Republicans are doing this because they think it will more accurately reflect the views of Pennsylvania voters? Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Help win 57% 29% 78% 61% 59% 55% 58% Reflect views 32 57 14 30 32 32 33 DK/NA 11 14 8 10 9 13 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Help win 66% 72% 52% 64% 47% 48% 50% Reflect views 26 17 30 28 45 41 38 DK/NA 7 11 18 8 8 12 12 Demographic Summary
