April 3, 2012 - Santorum Leads Romney In Pennsylvania GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 'Etch A Sketch' Rap Unfair To Romney, Republicans Say Word format Favorite Son Rick Santorum leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 41 - 35 percent among likely voters in Pennsylvania's Republican presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul has 10 percent, with 7 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. With three weeks before the primary, 6 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 37 percent of those who name a candidate say they still could change their mind, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This is the first look at likely voters and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Santorum tops Romney 43 - 33 percent among men, while women split 39 - 38 percent. Santorum also leads 53 - 24 percent among white evangelical Christians, 50 - 32 percent among Tea Party members and 48 - 30 percent among self-described conservatives. Romney is ahead 45 - 29 percent among self-described moderates. "The Keystone State is critical for Sen. Rick Santorum, the native son who must win to reasonably continue the race for the presidency," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Can Santorum hold on against Gov. Mitt Romney's money machine which has turned the tide in other states, washing away Santorum's early leads? "Pennsylvania is a critical swing state, so the Republican primary winner wants to make a good showing in April to bolster chances for success in November." By a 59 - 22 percent margin, Pennsylvania likely Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Romney, compared to 64 - 24 percent favorable for Santorum, a slightly negative 33 - 36 percent for Paul and a positive 44 - 39 percent favorable for Gingrich. It's better for the Republican Party if Santorum stays in the race, 57 percent of likely primary voters say, while 33 percent say it's better for the party if Santorum drops out. Pennsylvania likely Republican primary voters also see native son Santorum as more principled than Romney, saying: 52 - 7 percent that Santorum has more honesty and integrity than most people in public life, with 36 percent saying about the same; 25 - 14 percent that Romney has more honesty and integrity than most people in public life, with 55 percent saying about the same; 49 - 8 percent that Santorum changes his position less often than most public figures, with 38 percent saying about the same; 27 - 7 percent that Romney changes his position more than most public figures, with 60 percent saying about the same; 49 - 41 percent that Santorum changes his position on issues because of politics rather than principle; 74 - 17 percent that Romney changes his position on issues because of politics rather than principle. Likely Republican primary voters say 52 - 37 percent that the "Etch A Sketch" criticism of Romney is an unfair attack. "It looks like the Etch A Sketch gaffe was a one week wonder and has run its course as far as damaging Romney, if it damaged him at all," Malloy said. "Rick Santorum can take some solace in knowing Republican voters, at least in Pennsylvania, believe he flip flops with less frequency than Mitt Romney." From March 27 - April 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 647 likely Repub1ican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Gingrich 7% 8% 5% 6% 9% 8% 6% 9% 6% Romney 35 33 38 30 45 24 43 32 37 Santorum 41 43 39 48 29 53 39 50 37 Paul 10 12 9 11 8 7 10 7 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 4 9 4 8 8 3 2 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Gingrich 6% 7% 8% 10% 8% 4% 7% 6% 8% Romney 47 29 31 26 34 44 31 33 44 Santorum 31 46 37 44 46 39 41 47 36 Paul 12 10 9 13 10 12 15 9 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 8 14 7 3 1 5 4 7 1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot MR RS Mind made up 61% 63% 64% Might change 37 35 34 DK/NA 2 1 3 2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 59% 60% 58% 61% 58% 59% 63% 63% 58% Unfavorable 22 24 19 23 20 22 23 22 23 Hvn't hrd enough 16 13 20 14 18 16 13 15 16 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 4 3 1 - 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 73% 53% 42% 54% 62% 70% 55% 59% 65% Unfavorable 15 26 20 29 24 19 26 24 16 Hvn't hrd enough 10 19 33 16 12 10 19 14 14 REFUSED 3 3 6 2 2 1 1 2 5 3. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 44% 51% 36% 53% 32% 44% 47% 65% 39% Unfavorable 39 38 41 33 49 35 43 28 44 Hvn't hrd enough 14 9 20 11 17 17 9 6 14 REFUSED 3 2 4 3 3 4 2 1 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 44% 45% 34% 49% 51% 46% 47% 44% 43% Unfavorable 43 38 39 36 38 42 34 42 43 Hvn't hrd enough 9 16 24 15 8 9 17 13 10 REFUSED 4 2 3 1 2 3 2 1 4 4. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 64% 65% 62% 74% 48% 74% 65% 78% 59% Unfavorable 24 25 22 20 32 15 27 16 27 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 12 5 16 7 8 6 11 REFUSED 2 1 4 1 4 5 1 1 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 58% 67% 60% 70% 66% 62% 66% 67% 61% Unfavorable 35 18 14 22 24 32 23 22 25 Hvn't hrd enough 6 12 21 4 8 6 10 11 8 REFUSED 1 3 4 4 2 - 1 - 6 5. Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 33% 36% 30% 36% 30% 33% 34% 32% 35% Unfavorable 36 41 29 40 31 32 41 46 33 Hvn't hrd enough 28 20 39 23 36 32 24 18 30 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 39% 31% 27% 31% 35% 40% 39% 32% 27% Unfavorable 43 33 27 42 39 37 30 41 38 Hvn't hrd enough 16 34 44 22 25 21 30 26 30 REFUSED 3 2 2 5 1 2 1 1 5 6. Do you think it would be better for the Republican party if Rick Santorum stayed in the Presidential race, or dropped out of the Presidential race? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Stayed in race 57% 56% 57% 60% 49% 67% 56% 64% 54% Dropped out of race 33 36 30 31 39 24 36 31 36 DK/NA 10 8 13 8 12 10 8 5 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Stayed in race 45% 62% 57% 62% 61% 49% 60% 61% 49% Dropped out of race 44 28 28 28 34 42 32 31 37 DK/NA 11 10 16 10 5 9 7 7 14 7. Compared to most people in public life, do you think - Mitt Romney has more honesty and integrity, less honesty and integrity, or about the same amount? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No More honesty/integ 25% 24% 27% 29% 20% 23% 30% 34% 24% Less honesty/integ 14 14 14 14 12 14 14 16 13 About the same 55 57 53 53 61 59 54 49 58 DK/NA 6 5 6 4 6 5 3 2 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ More honesty/integ 32% 22% 23% 24% 22% 32% 20% 21% 37% Less honesty/integ 8 16 11 15 14 14 14 16 10 About the same 56 55 55 56 61 52 64 58 45 DK/NA 4 6 12 5 3 2 3 5 8 8. Compared to most people in public life, do you think - Rick Santorum has more honesty and integrity, less honesty and integrity, or about the same amount? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No More honesty/integ 52% 54% 50% 66% 31% 59% 53% 72% 46% Less honesty/integ 7 7 7 5 11 6 6 5 8 About the same 36 35 37 26 51 31 39 22 41 DK/NA 5 4 6 3 7 4 2 1 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ More honesty/integ 50% 53% 48% 49% 52% 59% 46% 61% 49% Less honesty/integ 11 5 7 4 6 11 8 6 8 About the same 37 35 36 44 39 27 44 28 35 DK/NA 2 7 9 4 3 3 2 6 7 9. Compared to most people in public life, do you think - Mitt Romney changes his positions more often, changes his positions less often, or about the same amount? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No More often 27% 33% 20% 32% 19% 27% 28% 41% 23% Less often 7 6 9 9 3 8 7 8 7 About the same 60 57 64 55 72 60 61 48 64 DK/NA 6 4 8 4 6 5 4 4 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ More often 23% 30% 30% 35% 29% 23% 23% 33% 26% Less often 7 7 6 7 10 6 6 8 8 About the same 65 57 50 55 60 68 68 54 56 DK/NA 5 6 14 3 1 3 3 4 9 10. Compared to most people in public life, do you think - Rick Santorum changes his positions more often, changes his positions less often, or about the same amount? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No More often 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 9% Less often 49 53 44 57 39 56 48 64 44 About the same 38 36 41 32 47 34 42 28 42 DK/NA 5 3 6 3 6 4 2 2 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ More often 6% 8% 14% 11% 4% 4% 6% 9% 9% Less often 51 49 33 47 56 61 50 56 42 About the same 38 38 41 39 39 33 40 33 43 DK/NA 5 5 12 3 1 3 4 3 7 11. Do you think most people in public life change their positions usually because of politics or principle? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Politics 76% 77% 75% 77% 77% 71% 83% 78% 75% Principle 20 19 21 20 18 26 14 20 20 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 5 3 3 2 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Politics 85% 72% 63% 70% 83% 82% 72% 84% 74% Principle 12 24 28 27 17 14 26 14 19 DK/NA 3 4 9 3 - 3 2 2 8 12. When - Mitt Romney changes his position on an issue, do you think it is usually because of politics or principle? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Politics 74% 76% 73% 74% 77% 73% 73% 74% 76% Principle 17 17 17 18 16 20 18 21 17 DK/NA 8 7 10 8 7 7 8 5 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Politics 77% 73% 70% 79% 80% 72% 79% 77% 67% Principle 16 18 24 14 12 22 15 13 24 DK/NA 7 9 6 7 8 6 5 9 9 13. When - Rick Santorum changes his position on an issue, do you think it is usually because of politics or principle? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Politics 49% 51% 48% 44% 62% 40% 53% 44% 52% Principle 41 40 42 47 30 49 40 49 39 DK/NA 10 9 11 9 8 10 7 8 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Politics 55% 47% 46% 51% 55% 47% 54% 50% 48% Principle 37 43 44 40 39 45 41 40 40 DK/NA 8 11 10 8 6 8 5 11 13 14. Some of Mitt Romney's critics have called him an Etch A Sketch candidate who changes his positions too easily. Do you think this is a fair criticism of Mitt Romney or an unfair attack? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Fair criticism 37% 41% 33% 41% 31% 43% 34% 40% 37% Unfair attack 52 53 51 50 57 43 59 54 52 DK/NA 11 7 17 9 12 14 7 6 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Fair criticism 30% 41% 39% 45% 36% 35% 44% 39% 27% Unfair attack 58 48 45 46 54 58 45 51 61 DK/NA 11 11 16 9 10 7 11 9 12
