June 12, 2012 - Women Give Obama 6-Point Lead In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gov. Corbett Job Approval At Lowest Point Ever Word format With strong support from women and independent voters, President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 46 - 40 among Pennsylvania voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Romney would do a better job on the economy, voters say 49 - 41 percent. The matchup compares to a 47 - 39 percent Obama lead in a May 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, women back President Obama 51 - 36 percent, while men tip to Romney 44 - 40 percent. Obama leads 83 - 10 percent among Democrats and 43 - 35 percent among independent voters, while Republican voters back Romney 80 - 7 percent. Pennsylvania voters say 77 - 18 percent that Obama is a likable person, compared to 58 - 29 percent for Romney. The Republican would create more jobs, voters say 45 percent, while 43 percent say Obama would create more jobs. "President Barack Obama is holding his ground against Gov. Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania. While almost four-fifths of voters, including 58 percent of Republicans, say the President is a likable person, where the rubber meets the road on the campaign trail - the economy - Romney has the lead," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Pennsylvanians may like the president more than they like Mitt Romney, but the warm and fuzzy feeling gives way to the cold hard truth of a still shaky economy." In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Casey Jr. leads coal mine-owner Tom Smith, his largely unknown Republican challenger, 51 - 32 percent. Voters approve 51 - 29 percent of the job Casey is doing and say 49 - 32 percent that he deserves reelection. Casey gets a 45 - 23 percent favorability rating while 71 percent of voters say they don't know enough about Smith to form an opinion. Governor's Approval Pennsylvania voters disapprove 47 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Tom Corbett is doing, his lowest approval rating ever and down from an all-time high of a 50 - 32 percent approval in a September 29 Quinnipiac University poll. Women disapprove 51 - 32 percent while men are split with 40 percent approving and 43 percent disapproving. Disapproval is 68 - 20 percent among Democrats and 45 - 35 percent among independent voters, while Republicans approve 55 - 26 percent. Voters disapprove 53 - 33 percent of the way Corbett is handling the state budget. "Gov. Tom Corbett tanks among men and women, giving him the lowest approval rating since taking office 18 months ago," Malloy said. Voter ID Pennsylvania voters approve 66 - 32 percent a new state law requiring voters to have photo ID to cast their ballot. Approval is 91 - 7 percent among Republicans and 64 - 35 percent among independent voters, while Democrats are opposed 53 - 46 percent. There is strong support for the photo ID requirement among all age and income groups. "Keystone State voters say overwhelmingly, 'No photo ID card, no ballot,' supporting 2-1 the new state law requiring a picture ID in order to vote," Malloy said. From June 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 997 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 46% 7% 83% 43% 40% 51% Romney 40 80 10 35 44 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 6 3 3 DK/NA 9 9 5 12 9 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Obama 46% 46% 59% 48% 42% 36% 44% 49% 47% Romney 44 39 28 41 43 51 39 40 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 1 2 8 5 1 1 DK/NA 4 11 10 9 11 4 9 8 10 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* Obama high also 47% Jun 2011, 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") OBAMA......... High Low Jun 12 May 03 Mar 28 Mar 14 Dec 08 May 03 Aug 02 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012 2011 Obama 46 47 45 46 46 47 42 Romney 40 39 42 40 43 39 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 9 8 7 8 6 8 8 2. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 35% 65% 11% 32% 38% 31% Unfavorable 42 9 70 44 41 43 Hvn't hrd enough 20 22 15 23 19 21 REFUSED 3 4 3 1 2 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 39% 33% 22% 36% 38% 43% 32% 34% 37% Unfavorable 42 42 46 44 43 42 44 42 42 Hvn't hrd enough 17 21 26 18 18 13 23 20 16 REFUSED 2 4 6 2 2 2 2 4 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 12 May 03 Mar 28 Mar 14 Dec 08 Mar 28 Feb 08 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012 2007 Favorable 35 35 37 33 34 37 12 Unfavorable 42 39 38 43 30 38 11 Hvn't hrd enough 20 22 22 21 33 22 76 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 14% 85% 48% 46% 53% Unfavorable 44 80 9 45 48 40 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 4 2 3 4 REFUSED 3 3 2 5 3 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 52% 48% 60% 53% 47% 40% 49% 54% 48% Unfavorable 44 43 29 42 47 59 45 39 44 Hvn't hrd enough 2 4 7 2 2 - 3 3 5 REFUSED 2 4 4 4 4 1 4 4 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 12 May 03 Mar 28 Mar 14 Dec 08 May 03 Feb 08 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012 2007 Favorable 49 51 48 47 46 51 39 Unfavorable 44 43 46 47 47 43 15 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 3 3 3 2 45 REFUSED 3 4 2 3 4 4 1 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Smith the Republican and Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Smith 32% 67% 5% 28% 34% 31% Casey 51 19 84 46 50 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 14 11 9 22 14 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl * Smith 25% 12% 25% 39% 35% 25% 43% Casey 61 65 60 45 53 52 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 6 - 1 - 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 5 - - 2 DK/NA 14 18 14 10 12 20 13 5. Is your opinion of - Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 23% 67% 43% 45% 45% Unfavorable 23 42 6 25 25 22 Hvn't hrd enough 30 33 27 28 28 31 REFUSED 2 2 - 3 1 2 6. Is your opinion of - Tom Smith favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 17% 34% 6% 15% 17% 18% Unfavorable 10 4 16 10 12 8 Hvn't hrd enough 71 62 77 71 69 74 REFUSED 2 - 1 4 2 1 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as governor? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 36% 55% 20% 35% 40% 32% Disapprove 47 26 68 45 43 51 DK/NA 17 19 12 20 17 17 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Approve 36% 36% 32% 33% 40% 42% 35% 42% 33% Disapprove 52 45 47 53 48 44 46 46 49 DK/NA 12 19 21 14 12 13 19 12 18 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl * Approve 26% 32% 30% 38% 45% 33% 41% Disapprove 60 52 41 46 45 57 39 DK/NA 14 16 28 16 10 9 20 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as Governor? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 12 Mar 28 Mar 15 Dec 08 Nov 10 Sep 29 Jun 12 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2012 Approve 36 41 41 47 46 50 36 Disapprove 47 38 41 34 31 32 47 DK/NA 17 22 18 19 23 18 17 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 27% 37% 23% 22% 31% 23% Disapprove 51 38 59 59 51 52 DK/NA 21 24 18 19 18 25 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low also 25% Dec 2009) APPROVE....... High Low Jun 12 Mar 15 Sep 29 Aug 03 Jun 14 Apr 10 May 13 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2003 2010* Approve 27 29 31 34 32 49 25 Disapprove 51 54 54 50 50 24 59 DK/NA 21 17 16 16 18 27 16 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 51% 38% 69% 44% 51% 51% Disapprove 29 45 12 33 32 25 DK/NA 20 17 19 23 17 24 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 12 Mar 14 Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 May 28 Dec 16 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2009 2010 Approve 51 46 46 48 47 56 39 Disapprove 29 27 30 29 26 21 29 DK/NA 20 26 24 23 27 23 32 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 40% 62% 26% 36% 44% 36% Disapprove 27 14 40 29 29 26 DK/NA 32 24 35 36 26 38 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator? Jun 12 Mar 14 Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 Apr 28 Feb 17 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 40 42 43 44 45 43 41 Disapprove 27 28 32 31 28 25 21 DK/NA 32 31 26 25 27 31 39 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 10% 82% 44% 42% 51% Disapprove 49 87 14 53 55 44 DK/NA 4 3 4 3 3 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Approve 49% 45% 57% 51% 45% 35% 46% 49% 48% Disapprove 49 50 38 48 52 62 49 48 48 DK/NA 2 5 5 2 3 3 5 3 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 12 May 03 Mar 28 Mar 14 Dec 08 May 04 Apr 28 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2009 2011 Approve 46 50 45 47 43 66 42 Disapprove 49 46 50 49 52 29 53 DK/NA 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 3% 4% 2% 2% 4% 1% Smwht satisfied 40 46 40 32 39 41 Smwht dissatisfied 39 36 37 46 41 37 Very dissatisfied 17 14 19 17 14 19 DK/NA 2 - 2 3 2 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Very satisfied 2% 3% 4% 4% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% Smwht satisfied 36 41 41 40 44 37 39 44 39 Smwht dissatisfied 43 37 36 37 41 40 42 38 37 Very dissatisfied 19 16 19 20 12 18 15 14 20 DK/NA - 2 - - 2 2 2 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl * Very satisfied 1% 2% 2% 3% - 5% 4% Smwht satisfied 37 45 45 42 37 30 39 Smwht dissatisfied 40 35 28 39 44 43 42 Very dissatisfied 18 15 24 16 18 18 14 DK/NA 4 3 1 - 1 4 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Jun 12 Mar 15 Sep 29 Aug 03 Jun 14 Jun 05 Dec 15 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2002 2010 Very satisfied 3 3 2 3 2 8 2 Smwht satisfied 40 40 41 38 37 60 35 Smwht dissatisfied 39 38 37 36 38 22 37 Very dissatisfied 17 19 19 22 22 8 25 DK/NA 2 - 1 1 1 3 1 13. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves 48% 10% 84% 46% 45% 51% No/Does not 47 85 12 47 52 42 DK/NA 5 5 3 7 3 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Yes/Deserves 48% 48% 60% 52% 45% 37% 47% 48% 50% No/Does not 48 46 33 45 50 60 48 46 45 DK/NA 3 6 7 3 5 3 5 6 4 TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? (*Low also 42% Apr 2011, Jul 2010) YES/DESERVES.. High Low Jun 12 May 03 Mar 28 Mar 14 Dec 08 May 03 Aug 02 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012 2011* Yes/Deserves 48 50 46 47 47 50 42 No/Does not 47 46 50 49 49 46 52 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 4 4 6 14. Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves 49% 29% 73% 44% 48% 50% No/Does not 32 55 11 35 36 28 DK/NA 19 17 16 21 15 22 TREND: Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? YES/DESERVES.. High Low Jun 12 Mar 14 Sep 28 Aug 02 Jun 15 Jun 12 Dec 16 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2012 2010 Yes/Deserves 49 48 48 47 47 49 40 No/Does not 32 30 31 33 31 32 33 DK/NA 19 21 20 19 21 19 27 15. Would you say Barack Obama is a likable person or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 77% 58% 93% 84% 78% 77% No 18 36 5 13 17 18 DK/NA 5 6 2 3 5 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Yes 82% 75% 79% 77% 77% 81% 79% 79% 74% No 15 19 14 20 19 15 14 19 22 DK/NA 3 6 7 3 3 4 7 2 4 16. Would you say Mitt Romney is a likable person or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 58% 77% 44% 55% 61% 54% No 29 12 42 33 27 31 DK/NA 13 11 14 12 12 14 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Yes 60% 57% 52% 57% 58% 64% 52% 63% 60% No 30 29 32 33 29 28 33 27 26 DK/NA 10 15 17 10 12 8 15 10 13 17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would - do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 41% 7% 78% 34% 38% 44% Romney 49 87 13 51 54 43 DK/NA 11 6 9 15 8 13 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Obama 41% 41% 53% 43% 40% 29% 38% 43% 46% Romney 52 47 35 49 52 63 50 49 44 DK/NA 7 12 12 8 8 8 12 8 10 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Jun 12 May 03 Mar 28 Dec 08 Nov 10 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 Obama 41 44 42 42 41 Romney 49 43 48 48 45 DK/NA 11 12 10 11 13 18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would - do a better job on foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 53% 20% 86% 52% 52% 55% Romney 34 66 6 33 37 31 DK/NA 13 14 8 15 11 15 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Obama 56% 52% 64% 56% 55% 41% 52% 56% 53% Romney 36 33 23 37 35 48 32 35 35 DK/NA 8 15 13 7 10 11 16 9 12 19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would - create more jobs, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 43% 11% 76% 39% 40% 45% Romney 45 81 14 44 50 40 DK/NA 12 8 10 16 10 15 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Obama 44% 42% 54% 46% 42% 31% 42% 43% 46% Romney 48 44 33 43 49 58 44 49 42 DK/NA 7 14 13 11 9 10 14 8 12 20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling the state budget? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 33% 52% 16% 32% 38% 28% Disapprove 53 33 73 53 50 56 DK/NA 14 14 11 15 12 16 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Approve 34% 32% 25% 30% 35% 45% 30% 37% 34% Disapprove 57 52 58 56 55 47 56 52 52 DK/NA 9 16 17 14 10 9 14 11 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling the state budget? Jun 12 Mar 15 Sep 29 Aug 03 Jun 14 Apr 27 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 33 36 40 41 33 35 Disapprove 53 49 45 45 52 52 DK/NA 14 15 16 14 15 13 21. Do you think that Pennsylvania's economy has gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same since Tom Corbett took office? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better 11% 20% 7% 7% 13% 10% Worse 33 19 41 38 30 35 The same 50 55 44 50 51 48 DK/NA 6 5 8 4 5 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Better 12% 11% 13% 10% 11% 13% 10% 11% 12% Worse 32 33 38 43 29 24 31 36 33 The same 53 48 41 45 51 61 50 49 49 DK/NA 4 7 8 2 9 2 8 3 6 22a. (If economy better q21) Do you credit Barack Obama or Tom Corbett more for this change? ECONOMY BETTER Q21 Tot Obama 30% Corbett 66 NEITHER (VOL) 4 BOTH (VOL) - DK/NA - 22b. (If economy worse q21) Do you blame Barack Obama or Tom Corbett more for this change? ECONOMY WORSE Q21 Tot Obama 15% Corbett 63 NEITHER (VOL) 11 BOTH (VOL) 8 DK/NA 3 23. As you may know, there is a new state law that requires voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say voter I.D. laws are needed to prevent voter fraud. Others say the laws are designed to suppress turnout by low-income people and minorities. Do you support or oppose the new state law that requires voters to show a photo identification card to vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 66% 91% 46% 64% 68% 65% Oppose 32 7 53 35 31 34 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 2 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+ Support 65% 67% 62% 68% 70% 63% 66% 65% 67% Oppose 33 32 36 31 28 35 33 34 32 DK/NA 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 Demographic Summary
