March 14, 2013 - Pennsylvania Voters Like Clinton, Christie For 2016, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Dislike Health Care Law Word format PDF format Pennsylvania voters turn to their neighbors in New York and New Jersey when they take an early look at the 2016 presidential field, as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs best, with New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie running second in a field of six contenders, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Ms. Clinton gets 47 percent to Gov. Christie's 42 percent and leads U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan 55 - 38 percent and Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio 54 - 36 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Christie leads Vice President Joseph Biden 51 - 38 percent and tops New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo 53 - 32 percent. Biden gets 45 percent to Rubio's 41 percent and gets 44 percent to Ryan's 47 percent. Cuomo gets 42 percent to Rubio's 38 percent and gets 44 percent to Ryan's 41 percent. "Former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is keeping her future plans to herself, but if those plans include another run for the White House, she starts in a good position in Pennsylvania," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "And if Ms. Clinton doesn't go for it, Pennsylvania voters can look across the Delaware River at another contender, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie. Another neighbor, Vice President Joseph Biden, a native of Scranton and former Delaware senator, doesn't do nearly as well as Clinton or Christie." There is a huge gender gap in the Clinton-Christie matchup as men back the Republican 48 - 39 percent while women back the Democrat 55 - 37 percent. A total of 53 percent of Pennsylvania voters "somewhat disapprove" or "strongly disapprove" of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, while 37 percent "strongly approve" or "somewhat approve." ACA will hurt them personally 40 percent of voters say, while 13 percent say it will help and 42 percent say it will have no effect. There is little difference among income groups. From March 6 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,116 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 18. (Intro Q18-26: I know it is far ahead but thinking about the 2016 presidential election...) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 47% 13% 87% 37% 39% 55% Christie 42 79 7 45 48 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 3 1 DK/NA 7 5 5 14 8 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Clinton 47% 47% 53% 46% 37% 49% 47% 46% Christie 42 43 35 46 52 44 43 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 9 7 8 6 7 5 6 9 19. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 54% 18% 93% 48% 45% 62% Rubio 36 71 4 36 45 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 7 7 3 12 7 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Clinton 55% 53% 60% 54% 44% 56% 53% 53% Rubio 38 35 30 39 44 36 36 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 DK/NA 6 8 7 4 10 6 6 8 20. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 55% 18% 93% 52% 45% 63% Ryan 38 75 5 37 47 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 1 DK/NA 4 4 2 6 3 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Clinton 58% 54% 60% 53% 48% 55% 55% 54% Ryan 38 38 33 42 47 40 39 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 2 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 - - 2 3 1 DK/NA 3 5 5 2 4 1 2 6 21. (Split Sample A) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Biden 38% 7% 79% 22% 33% 42% Christie 51 86 13 55 56 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 2 2 DK/NA 9 4 7 16 7 10 22. (Split Sample A) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Biden 45% 9% 88% 35% 41% 49% Rubio 41 81 4 39 48 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 5 4 1 DK/NA 9 7 6 17 6 13 23. (Split Sample A) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Biden 44% 9% 84% 38% 38% 51% Ryan 47 87 10 48 55 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 3 - DK/NA 6 2 6 9 3 8 24. (Split Sample B) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Cuomo 32% 7% 64% 20% 27% 36% Christie 53 85 20 60 57 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 3 5 4 DK/NA 11 6 11 16 10 11 25. (Split Sample B) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Cuomo 42% 11% 82% 26% 35% 48% Rubio 38 73 4 42 49 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 5 6 6 2 DK/NA 15 13 9 24 10 20 26. (Split Sample B) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Cuomo 44% 7% 81% 41% 39% 48% Ryan 41 82 6 40 51 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 3 3 DK/NA 10 9 10 12 6 14 31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 12% 82% 35% 39% 49% Disapprove 51 86 13 58 57 46 DK/NA 4 2 5 7 4 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 52% 41% 44% 45% 44% 50% 42% 43% Disapprove 44 54 52 51 53 44 54 53 DK/NA 3 5 4 4 3 6 5 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Mar 14 Jan 30 Nov 15 Jun 27 Jun 12 May 04 Apr 28 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2009 2011 Approve 44 51 52 45 46 66 42 Disapprove 51 46 45 49 49 29 53 DK/NA 4 3 3 6 4 5 5 35. From what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted in 2010? IF APPROVE: Do you strongly approve or somewhat approve? IF DISAPPROVE: Do you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Strongly approve 17% 2% 37% 10% 18% 16% Somewhat approve 20 8 28 25 17 22 Somewhat disapprove 16 21 10 17 15 16 Strongly disapprove 37 62 11 40 43 32 DK/NA 11 7 14 8 7 14 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Strongly approve 26% 13% 16% 20% 19% 18% 18% 17% Somewhat approve 23 18 21 20 17 25 19 17 Somewhat disapprove 11 17 17 15 16 20 15 15 Strongly disapprove 34 38 34 40 39 30 38 40 DK/NA 5 13 12 5 8 7 10 11 36. From what you've heard or read, do you think the 2010 health care law will mostly help you personally, will mostly hurt you personally, or don't you think it will have much of an effect on you personally? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Help 13% 2% 25% 9% 13% 12% Hurt 40 64 14 42 42 39 No effect 42 29 54 45 41 42 DK/NA 5 4 6 3 4 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Help 15% 12% 14% 13% 10% 20% 12% 10% Hurt 35 42 38 40 43 37 45 39 No effect 47 40 41 43 45 41 40 43 DK/NA 4 6 7 3 2 1 3 8 Demographic Summary
