October 6, 2005 - Casey Surges As Santorum Slides In PA Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush And Santorum Approvals Drop To New Lows Pennsylvania State Treasurer Robert Casey, Jr., has opened a 52 - 34 percent lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in the 2006 Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 50 - 39 percent Casey lead in a July 13 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. Democrats back Casey 81 - 8 percent, and independent voters back him 52 - 29 percent, while Republicans back the incumbent 67 - 22 percent. Sen. Santorum has a split 43 - 41 percent job approval, his lowest ever and down from a 51 - 35 percent approval rating July 13. Pennsylvania voters split 41 - 42 percent on whether he deserves to be reelected. Santorum's politics are "about right," 40 percent say, while 29 percent say he is "too conservative," and 9 percent say he is "too liberal." "Sen. Santorum's numbers in Pennsylvania have sunk to new lows in job approval, favorability and whether he deserves re-election. The Senator trails Bob Casey by 18 points statewide - the biggest gap yet," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Casey leads comfortably in every part of the state except central Pennsylvania where Santorum maintains an advantage. And the Republican incumbent can't expect a lot of help at this point from his friend President Bush, whose own popularity has sunk to a new low in Pennsylvania." "About the only good news for Sen. Santorum is that the election is still more than a year away, plenty of time for the political winds to shift," Richards added. Pennsylvania voters give Santorum a 33 - 30 percent favorability with 19 percent mixed and 18 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion. Casey gets a 38 - 9 percent favorability, with 20 percent mixed and 33 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion. President Bush Voters disapprove 61 - 37 percent of the job President Bush is doing, his lowest score ever and down from a 53 - 44 percent disapproval July 13. Pennsylvania voters say 57 - 37 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. Senior Sen. Arlen Specter gets a 57 - 32 percent approval, down slightly from one of his all-time high approval ratings July 13. From September 27 - October 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,530 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 57% 56% 57% 57% 59% 55% Disapprove 32 34 32 29 35 29 DK/NA 12 11 10 14 7 16 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 55% 52% 61% 62% 58% 45% 57% Disapprove 29 36 29 30 31 42 29 DK/NA 16 11 9 8 11 13 13 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003) Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 Sep 16 Jul 13 Apr 22 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2005* 2004 Approve 57 60 53 55 52 60 47 Disapprove 32 30 33 34 37 30 36 DK/NA 12 10 13 11 12 10 17 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 43% 63% 29% 38% 46% 40% Disapprove 41 21 56 44 41 41 DK/NA 16 16 15 18 13 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 34% 36% 47% 39% 44% 44% 49% Disapprove 57 43 37 47 37 42 31 DK/NA 9 21 16 14 19 14 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 56% on 8/7/2003 and 2/21/2003) Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 Sep 16 Dec 17 Oct 6 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2003* 2005 Approve 43 51 48 52 54 56 43 Disapprove 41 35 35 31 30 29 41 DK/NA 16 14 18 17 16 15 16 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 37% 73% 10% 27% 40% 34% Disapprove 61 24 89 68 58 63 DK/NA 3 3 1 5 3 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 29% 19% 34% 33% 44% 38% 49% Disapprove 68 78 63 67 53 60 47 DK/NA 3 3 3 1 3 3 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 Sep 16 Jun 5 Oct 6 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2002 2005 Approve 37 44 43 45 48 73 37 Disapprove 61 53 53 51 48 21 61 DK/NA 3 3 4 3 3 6 3 16. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 33% 57% 19% 22% 36% 30% Unfavorable 30 12 43 33 33 27 Mixed 19 16 17 26 16 22 Hvn't hrd enough 18 15 20 18 15 20 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 26% 18% 33% 33% 40% 35% 39% Unfavorable 43 24 25 39 20 35 22 Mixed 22 23 15 13 21 18 22 Hvn't hrd enough 7 35 27 14 18 12 16 REFUSED 2 1 - - - - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 Oct 15 Aug 7 2005 2005 2005 2005 2003 2003 Favorable 33 37 36 41 44 45 Unfavorable 30 27 25 24 24 22 Mixed 19 17 20 17 18 22 Haven't heard enough 18 19 19 16 14 10 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 17. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 38% 34% 42% 38% 40% 35% Unfavorable 9 12 7 8 11 7 Mixed 20 21 19 20 20 20 Hvn't hrd enough 33 34 32 32 28 37 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 35% 37% 45% 33% 40% 44% 35% Unfavorable 9 10 8 8 5 10 11 Mixed 24 23 19 24 20 17 16 Hvn't hrd enough 32 30 28 34 34 28 37 REFUSED - - - 1 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 38 39 40 41 Unfavorable 9 9 6 8 Mixed 20 17 15 18 Haven't heard enough 33 36 38 31 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 18. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 52% 22% 81% 52% 50% 54% Santorum 34 67 8 29 40 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 11 10 8 14 6 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 56% 64% 51% 57% 50% 57% 41% Santorum 28 20 33 31 39 33 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 - 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 - 1 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 9 13 14 10 8 7 13 TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 2005 2005 2005 2005 Bob Casey, Jr. 52 50 49 46 Rick Santorum 34 39 35 41 SMONE ELSE 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 11 11 13 11 19. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 41% 67% 22% 33% 45% 37% No/Does not 42 19 59 49 45 40 DK/NA 17 14 19 17 11 23 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 32% 34% 40% 36% 44% 41% 50% No/Does not 55 41 42 49 38 47 32 DK/NA 13 25 18 15 18 12 18 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 2005 2005 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 41 45 44 53 Does not 42 38 37 30 DK/NA 17 17 19 17 20. Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too liberal 9% 8% 11% 9% 7% 11% Too conservative 29 13 39 35 33 25 About right 40 64 24 32 43 37 DK/NA 22 14 26 23 17 27 TREND: Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 2005 2005 2005 2005 Too liberal 9 6 8 7 Too conservative 29 29 25 25 About right 40 44 44 44 DK/NA 22 20 24 25 26. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 37% 69% 13% 29% 41% 33% Wrong thing 57 23 84 63 54 60 DK/NA 6 7 3 8 4 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Right thing 38% 13% 31% 34% 42% 42% 47% Wrong thing 57 79 61 62 51 53 46 DK/NA 5 8 8 4 6 5 7 TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Oct 6 Oct 28 Oct 22 Oct 12 Sep 28 Sep 16 Aug 18 2005 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 Right thing 37 48 45 45 43 47 46 Wrong thing 57 45 48 48 49 47 48 DK/NA 6 7 8 7 8 6 6
