September 27, 2006 - Rendell Tackles Swann With 16-Pt. Lead In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Challenger Gains Little Yardage In his apparent runaway race for reelection, Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell leads Republican challenger, former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann, 55 - 39 percent among likely voters, with 6 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 57- 38 percent Rendell lead among likely voters in an August 16 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, Republicans back Swann 72 - 22 percent, while Democrats back Gov. Rendell 85 - 11 percent and independent voters go Democratic 63 - 29 percent. Among likely voters who name a candidate, 14 percent say they still might change their mind before Election Day. Among Swann supporters, 52 percent say their vote is mainly against Rendell and 42 percent say they are voting mainly for Swann. "Gov. Ed 'Teflon Ed' Rendell remains untouchable. The Governor's political juggernaut continues to storm across Pennsylvania while Lynn Swann's campaign is running on empty," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The incumbent's biggest problem in this election is overconfidence. While he may not worry about enough supporters turning out to give him a comfortable victory, he needs a turnout with big enough coattails to sweep Bob Casey Jr., into the Senate." By a 55 - 36 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters say Rendell deserves to be reelected. The Governor gets a 51 - 23 percent favorability among likely voters, with 22 percent mixed and 4 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Voter opinion of Swann is 33 - 12 percent favorable, with 18 percent mixed and 35 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. From September 19 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 933 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks 1. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Rendell or Swann? This table includes Leaners. LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 55% 22% 85% 63% 54% 56% Swann 39 72 11 29 40 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 5 3 7 5 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 53% 84% 50% 68% 47% 47% 39% Swann 42 14 39 28 45 45 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 - 11 4 7 8 5 TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Rendell or Swann? This table includes Leaners. LIKELY VOTERS Sep 27 Aug 16 2006 2006 Rendell 55 57 Swann 39 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 6 4 1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS CHOOSING CAND Q1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE ER LS Tot Voters Voters Made up 86% 85% 87% Might change 14 14 13 DK/NA 1 1 - TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS Sep 27 Aug 16 2006 2006 Made up 86 65% Might change 14 34 DK/NA 1 1 2. (Rendell q1) Is your vote more for Rendell or more against Swann? LIKELY VOTERS CHOOSING RENDELL Q1.. Tot Dem Ind Men Wom For Rendell 86% 87% 88% 86% 87% Against Swann 9 10 8 10 8 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 5 TREND: Is your vote more for Rendell or more against Swann? LIKELY VOTERS Rendell Voters Sep 27 Aug 16 2006 2006 For Rendell 86 83 Against Swann 9 10 DK/NA 4 7 3. (Swann q1) Is your vote more for Swann or more against Rendell? LIKELY VOTERS CHOOSING SWANN Q1.... Tot Rep Ind Men Wom For Swann 42% 43% 38% 45% 38% Against Rendell 52 51 58 51 54 DK/NA 6 6 4 3 9 TREND: Is your vote more for Swann or more against Rendell? LIKELY VOTERS Swann Voters Sep 27 Aug 16 2006 2006 For Swann 42 47 Against Rendell 52 49 DK/NA 6 4 4. Is your opinion of Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 26% 75% 54% 52% 50% Unfavorable 23 41 5 19 24 21 Mixed 22 27 14 23 21 23 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 5 3 2 6 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 43% 76% 49% 67% 39% 49% 32% Unfavorable 24 5 26 10 30 25 37 Mixed 25 11 20 21 22 24 25 Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 4 1 7 2 6 REFUSED 2 4 1 - 2 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Sep 27 Aug 16 2006 2006 Favorable 51 44 Unfavorable 23 28 Mixed 22 23 Hvn't heard enough 4 4 REFUSED 1 - 5. Is your opinion of Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 33% 52% 20% 26% 35% 31% Unfavorable 12 2 20 18 11 14 Mixed 18 16 21 17 19 18 Hvn't hrd enough 35 29 38 37 33 37 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 44% 14% 30% 32% 42% 34% 36% Unfavorable 16 19 6 14 10 8 10 Mixed 17 15 16 17 20 19 22 Hvn't hrd enough 20 50 46 34 27 39 30 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Sep 27 Aug 16 2006 2006 Favorable 33 25 Unfavorable 12 21 Mixed 18 15 Hvn't hrd enough 35 38 REFUSED 1 1 6. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Deserves 55% 26% 81% 65% 54% 56% Does not deserve 36 64 12 30 38 35 DK/NA 8 10 7 5 8 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Deserves 45% 83% 51% 69% 48% 54% 40% Does not deserve 43 15 34 26 43 38 50 DK/NA 12 2 14 5 9 7 10 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? LIKELY VOTERS Sep 27 Aug 16 2006 2006 Deserves 55 54% Does not deserve 36 40 DK/NA 8 7
