September 24, 2008 - Debates Could Tip Tight Races In Four Battlegrounds, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds Word format The presidential debates could influence 22 to 26 percent of voters in the hotly contested states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. In Colorado, where Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain 49 - 45 percent, a total of 22 percent of likely voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" the presidential debates could change their mind. In Michigan, where Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 48 - 44 percent, 26 percent say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" the debates could affect their vote. In Minnesota, where Obama has 47 percent to McCain's 45 percent, 24 percent say the debates could impact their decision. In Wisconsin, where Obama is ahead 49 - 42 percent, 25 percent say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" the debates could influence them. "With such small margins, the presidential debates could be critical in these battleground states, and elsewhere around the country," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. From September 14 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed: 1,418 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,364 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent; 1,301 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent; 1,313 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. These surveys of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS....................................... COLORADO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Obama 49% 7% 91% 51% 42% 55% 44% 68% McCain 45 89 6 40 49 40 51 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 3 7 6 4 4 6 MICHIGAN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 48% 7% 89% 49% 44% 52% 41% 93% McCain 44 88 8 42 49 40 51 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 3 8 6 7 7 2 MINNESOTA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Obama 47% 4% 92% 43% 45% 49% 44% McCain 45 93 5 45 47 43 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 2 3 10 5 7 7 WISCONSIN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Obama 49% 6% 90% 42% 45% 53% 46% McCain 42 91 5 44 48 37 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 4 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 3 5 10 5 9 7 15. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... CO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht His Very likely 6% 2% 6% 10% 5% 8% 5% 8% Smwht likely 16 17 9 23 16 16 15 26 Not too likely 24 25 23 24 23 25 27 16 Not likely at all 52 56 59 41 54 49 52 45 DK/NA 1 - 2 2 1 2 1 4 MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very likely 7% 5% 6% 11% 8% 7% 6% 11% Smwht likely 19 15 16 24 21 17 19 18 Not too likely 21 23 21 20 20 23 22 14 Not likely at all 52 56 58 44 51 52 51 57 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 MN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Very likely 5% 1% 3% 8% 4% 5% 5% Smwht likely 19 15 14 26 17 22 20 Not too likely 27 31 25 28 27 26 28 Not likely at all 48 53 58 36 51 46 47 DK/NA 1 - - 1 - 1 1 WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Very likely 7% 4% 10% 6% 5% 8% 6% Smwht likely 18 12 14 26 17 19 19 Not too likely 24 27 20 29 24 25 25 Not likely at all 49 54 55 39 52 46 48 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 15. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all? CAND CHOICEQ1 CO Tot Obama McCain Very likely 6% 7% 4% Smwht likely 16 13 16 Not too likely 24 25 25 Not likely at all 52 53 53 DK/NA 1 1 1 CAND CHOICEQ1 MI Tot Obama McCain Very likely 7% 7% 5% Smwht likely 19 17 19 Not too likely 21 22 22 Not likely at all 52 54 53 DK/NA 1 - 1 CAND CHOICEQ1 MN Tot Obama McCain Very likely 5% 4% 4% Smwht likely 19 18 18 Not too likely 27 26 29 Not likely at all 48 53 49 DK/NA 1 - - CAND CHOICEQ1 WI Tot Obama McCain Very likely 7% 6% 5% Smwht likely 18 16 19 Not too likely 24 24 26 Not likely at all 49 53 49 DK/NA 2 1 2
