October 11, 2012 - Debate Changes Little In Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State Poll Finds Word format Crosstabs by State Watch Video: Assistant Director Tim Malloy discusses poll results Clip Information and Download: FLV File - For Website (1920x1080 / 75.9MB) Original .MP4 File - For Broadcast (1920x1080 / 521.2MB) --- COLORADO: Romney 48 - Obama 47, compared to Obama 48 - Romney 47 Sept. 19 VIRGINIA: Obama 51 - Romney 46, compared to Obama 50 - Romney 46 WISCONSIN: Obama 50 - Romney 47, compared to Obama 51 - Romney 45 Likely voters in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin say 4-1 that President Barack Obama lost the presidential debate with Gov. Mitt Romney, but the impact is too small to measure, with too-close- to-call races in Colorado and Wisconsin, and Obama holding his lead in Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State poll released today. Romney would do a better job on the economy, Colorado voters say 52 - 44 percent, while Virginia voters are split 48 - 48 percent and Wisconsin voters split 49- 47 percent. Compared to September, more, voters, especially in Colorado and Virginia, say Romney cares about their needs and problems, but Obama still leads on this measure. Romney is ahead on leadership. The Obama-Romney overall matchup in each of these states shows: Colorado: Romney on the right side of a 48 - 47 percent split, compared to Obama at 48 percent to Romney's 47 percent September 19; Virginia: Obama up 51 - 46 percent, compared to Obama ahead 50 - 46 percent; Wisconsin: Obama on the top side of a 50 - 47 percent too-close-to-call race, compared to Obama over Romney 51 - 45 percent. "Gov. Mitt Romney outfought President Barack Obama 4-1 in the first debate, according to likely voters in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The shifts are too small to measure, but the races in Wisconsin and Colorado are now too close to call. The president holds his lead in Virginia." "When likely voters are asked which candidate has strong leadership qualities, more cite Romney than the president in all three states," said Brown. "During the spring and early summer Romney held a small lead on who can best handle the economy, an edge he lost to Obama in Quinnipiac University's September survey. Now, Romney leads on the economy in Colorado and the two men are tied in Virginia and Wisconsin. "Perhaps the best news for Obama in this poll is that voters expect U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the Republican vice presidential nominee, to win the running-mate debate over Vice President Joe Biden tonight. Before the first presidential debate, Romney was the expected loser and overcame those low expectations to impress the voting public." Colorado Colorado's independent likely voters back Romney 49 - 45 percent. Men back Romney 52 - 42 percent while women back Obama 51 - 45 percent. White voters go Republican 53 - 41 percent while Hispanic voters go Democratic 66 - 34 percent. The economy is the top election issue for 42 percent of voters, with health care at 14 percent, the budget deficit at 11 percent, national security at 9 percent and Medicare at 6 percent. Voters tie 48 - 47 percent on who would best handle health care and 47 - 46 percent on who would do a better job on Medicare. Obama would best help the middle class voters say 50 - 45 percent and Romney would do better on the budget deficit, voters say 54 - 40 percent. Romney has strong leadership qualities, Colorado voters say 67 - 29 percent, compared to 54 - 44 percent for Obama. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 54 - 42 percent, compared to Romney's 48 - 48 percent split. Colorado voters say 72 - 16 percent that Romney won last week's debate and say 47 - 30 percent that Ryan will win tonight's debate with Biden. Voters are divided 45 - 46 percent on whether marijuana should be legal in the state. Voters 18 to 34 years old support legalization 65 - 28 percent, while voters 35 to 54 years old are mixed 47 - 44 percent and voters over 55 are opposed 57 - 34 percent. Colorado voters approve 59 - 21 percent of the job Gov. John Hickenlooper is doing. "The key to Mitt Romney's strength in Colorado is independent voter support. This group makes up a significant portion of the likely electorate and Romney has a four-point lead with these voters, which keeps him even with President Obama, who does a bit better among Democrats than Mr. Romney does among Republicans," Brown said. Virginia Strong support among women and blacks keep Obama ahead in Virginia: women back him 56 - 40 percent while men back Romney 52 - 45 percent. Whites go Republican 59 - 38 percent while blacks go Democratic 93 - 3 percent. Independent likely voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney. The economy is the top election issue for 42 percent of voters, followed by health care at 16 percent, the budget deficit at 11 percent and Medicare at 9 percent. Voters say 54 - 42 percent that Obama would best handle health care; 55 - 40 percent that he would do a better job on Medicare and 55 - 42 percent that he would best help the middle class. Romney would do better on the budget deficit, voters say 51 - 43 percent. Romney has strong leadership qualities, Virginia voters say 64 - 30 percent, compared to 62 - 37 percent for Obama. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 63 - 34 percent, compared to Romney's slightly negative 46 - 49 percent. Romney won last week's debate voters say 70 - 17 percent and Ryan will win tonight's debate with Biden, Virginia voters say 41 - 36 percent. In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen 51 - 44 percent. Independent voters back the Democrat 51 - 42 percent. Virginia voters approve 52 - 29 percent of the job Gov. Bob McDonnell is doing. A total of 84 percent of voters say the federal government is "very important" or somewhat important in creating jobs in Virginia. "One reason why the president is doing better in Virginia than some other swing states could be that Virginians feel a little better about the economy than voters in other states," Brown said. "It is more difficult for Mitt Romney to go into Virginia with its sub 6 percent unemployment rate than in many other states and convince voters they should fire Barrack Obama for not doing enough to fix the economy." Wisconsin A 15-point gender gap marks the presidential race in Wisconsin as women back the president 53 - 43 percent, while men back Romney 51 - 46 percent. Independent voters are divided with 48 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama. The economy is the top election issue for 44 percent of voters, followed by health care at 16 percent, the budget deficit at 11 percent and Medicare at 9 percent. Voters say 51 - 44 percent that Obama would best handle health care; 51 - 44 percent that he would do a better job on Medicare and 53 - 43 percent that he would best help the middle class. Romney would do better on the budget deficit, voters say 53 - 41 percent. Romney has strong leadership qualities, Wisconsin voters say 65 - 31 percent, compared to 59 - 39 percent for Obama. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 61 - 36 percent, compared to Romney's negative 46 - 50 percent. Romney won last week's debate, voters say 65 - 17 percent. Native son Paul Ryan will win tonight's debate with Biden, Wisconsin voters say 49 - 32 percent. Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race is too close to call with 48 percent for Democrat Tammy Baldwin and 46 percent for former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Independent are divided 46 - 46 percent. Men go Republican 50 - 45 percent while women go Democratic 51 - 42 percent. Wisconsin voters approve 52 - 44 percent of the job Gov. Scott Walker is doing. Voters are divided 40 - 41 percent on whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of labor unions. "Wisconsin votes are predisposed toward native son Paul Ryan on a variety of measures, Brown said. "Compared to the other states, Ryan has a better favorable/unfavorable ratio; is seen as better prepared to assume the presidency, and by a wide margin voters expect him to win tonight's vice presidential debate." From October 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with The New York Times and CBS News, surveyed: 1,254 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,288 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent; 1,327 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml or call (203) 582-5201. For individual statewide crosstabs call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs by State 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and VA/WI early voters) LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 47% 51% 50% Romney 48 46 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - DK/NA 2 3 3 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS...... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 CO VA WI Mind made up 93% 93% 92% Might change 6 6 7 DK/NA - 1 1 1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS... OBAMA Q1........ CO VA WI Mind made up 93% 94% 91% Might change 7 6 8 DK/NA - 1 1 1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS... ROMNEY Q1....... CO VA WI Mind made up 94% 93% 94% Might change 5 7 5 DK/NA - - - 2. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Favorable 49% 54% 50% Unfavorable 48 43 45 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 2 REFUSED 1 1 2 3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Favorable 48% 46% 47% Unfavorable 44 46 45 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 6 REFUSED 2 1 2 4. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... OBAMA Q1........ CO VA WI Strongly favor 68% 72% 69% Like/Reservations 23 23 23 Dislike Romney 9 5 7 DK/NA - - 1 5. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama? LIKELY VOTERS... ROMNEY Q1....... CO VA WI Strongly favor 60% 62% 63% Like/Reservations 25 27 25 Dislike Obama 15 9 12 DK/NA - 2 - 6. (VA & WI) If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine(VA)/Tammy Baldwin(WI) the Democrat and George Allen(VA)/Tommy Thompson(WI) the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Allen(VA)/Baldwin(WI) or Kaine(VA)/Thompson(WI)? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Democrat - 51% 48% Republican - 44 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA - 5 5 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Hickenlooper(CO)/Bob McDonnell(VA)/Scott Walker(WI) is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Approve 59% 52% 52% Disapprove 21 29 44 DK/NA 20 19 3 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Approve 45% 52% 47% Disapprove 52 46 49 DK/NA 3 3 4 9. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Favorable 36% 43% 36% Unfavorable 44 39 39 Hvn't hrd enough 19 17 24 REFUSED 1 1 1 10. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Favorable 38% 38% 46% Unfavorable 34 34 35 Hvn't hrd enough 27 28 18 REFUSED - - - 11. Do you think Joe Biden is or is not qualified to serve as President if it becomes necessary, or don't you know enough about Joe Biden to say? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Qualified 41% 45% 41% Not qualified 39 33 32 Don't know enough 19 20 27 DK/NA 1 1 1 12. Do you think Paul Ryan is or is not qualified to serve as President if it becomes necessary, or don't you know enough about Paul Ryan to say? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Qualified 40% 34% 47% Not qualified 26 28 28 Don't know enough 33 36 25 DK/NA 1 2 1 13. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, energy, the budget deficit, taxes, health care, medicare, or something else? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI National security 9% 7% 4% The economy 42 42 44 Energy 3 2 2 The budget deficit 11 11 11 Taxes 4 4 5 Health care 14 16 16 Medicare 6 9 9 Something else 9 8 7 DK/NA 2 2 2 14. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More 41% 43% 42% Less 12 11 10 About the same 46 45 48 DK/NA - - - 15. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Better 37% 42% 38% Worse 37 35 33 The same 25 22 29 DK/NA 1 1 1 16. Do you think (Colorado/Virginia/Wisconsin)'s economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Better 40% 37% 35% Worse 20 15 18 The same 38 45 45 DK/NA 2 3 1 17. Would you say that - Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes 54% 63% 61% No 42 34 36 DK/NA 3 3 2 18. Would you say that - Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes 48% 46% 46% No 48 49 50 DK/NA 4 5 4 19. How confident are you in - Barack Obama's ability to be an effective Commander-in-Chief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Very confident 35% 41% 37% Somewhat confident 19 18 23 Not too confident 15 16 16 Not at all confident 31 25 24 DK/NA - 1 1 20. How confident are you in - Mitt Romney's ability to be an effective Commander-in-Chief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Very confident 32% 25% 28% Somewhat confident 27 30 29 Not too confident 17 19 17 Not at all confident 22 25 24 DK/NA 2 1 2 21. Would you say that Barack Obama - has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes 54% 62% 59% No 44 37 39 DK/NA 2 2 1 22. Would you say that Mitt Romney - has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes 67% 64% 65% No 29 30 31 DK/NA 4 6 4 23. Would you say that Barack Obama - is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes 49% 59% 58% No 48 38 40 DK/NA 3 4 3 24. Would you say that Mitt Romney - is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes 47% 47% 47% No 48 46 47 DK/NA 5 7 6 25. Do you think Barack Obama - has clearly explained his specific plans for the next four years, or hasn't he clearly explained them? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes, explained 47% 49% 45% No, has not 51 48 53 DK/NA 2 3 2 26. Do you think Mitt Romney - has clearly explained his specific plans for the next four years, or hasn't he clearly explained them? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes, explained 37% 34% 33% No, has not 60 63 63 DK/NA 2 3 3 27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 44% 48% 47% Romney 52 48 49 DK/NA 4 4 4 28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 48% 54% 51% Romney 47 42 44 DK/NA 6 4 5 29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - helping the middle class, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 50% 55% 53% Romney 45 42 43 DK/NA 5 4 4 30. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - Medicare, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 47% 55% 51% Romney 46 40 44 DK/NA 7 5 6 31. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 48% 50% 47% Romney 47 44 49 DK/NA 5 6 5 32. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - energy issues, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 46% 49% 49% Romney 49 44 44 DK/NA 6 7 8 33. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling an international crisis, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 49% 53% 52% Romney 45 42 42 DK/NA 6 5 6 34. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the budget deficit, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 40% 43% 41% Romney 54 51 53 DK/NA 6 6 5 35. Which of these comes closer to your opinion, The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes self-reliance and individual responsibility, or The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes community and shared responsibility. LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Self-reliance 51% 45% 46% Community 43 45 46 BOTH (VOL) 3 4 3 DK/NA 4 6 6 36. As you may know, the largest items in the federal budget are the military, Social Security, and Medicare, the government health insurance program for seniors. If you had to choose one, which of the following programs would you be willing to change in order to cut spending: Medicare, Social Security, or the military? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Medicare 21% 18% 18% Social Security 21 21 18 The military 47 47 53 DK/NA 12 14 12 37. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on household income over $250,000 per year? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Support 62% 66% 65% Oppose 35 31 32 DK/NA 3 3 3 38. Do you feel you pay more than your fair share in federal income taxes, less than your fair share, or is the amount you pay about right? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More than fair share 23% 29% 28% Less than fair share 5 3 4 About right 70 66 66 DK/NA 2 2 2 39. What about upper-income Americans? Do you feel upper-income people pay more than their fair share in federal income taxes, less than their fair share, or is the amount they pay about right? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More than fair share 15% 13% 12% Less than fair share 52 54 55 About right 29 25 27 DK/NA 5 7 6 40. Which candidate do you think did the best job, or won, Wednesday night's presidential debate, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama 16% 17% 17% Romney 72 70 65 TIE(VOL) 3 3 4 DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) 6 7 11 DK/NA 4 3 4 41. Did you watch or listen to the presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on Wednesday, October 3rd or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes 88% 87% 81% No 11 12 18 DK/NA 1 1 - 42. (If watched/listened q41) In general, how did Wednesday night's debate affect your opinion of - Barack Obama? Did it make you think better of him, worse of him, or didn't it affect your opinion? LIKELY VOTERS................. WATCHED/LISTENED TO DEBATE Q41 CO VA WI Better 6% 9% 7% Worse 29 24 28 No effect 64 66 65 DK/NA 1 1 - 43. (If watched/listened q41) In general, how did Wednesday night's debate affect your opinion of - Mitt Romney? Did it make you think better of him, worse of him, or didn't it affect your opinion? LIKELY VOTERS................. WATCHED/LISTENED TO DEBATE Q41 CO VA WI Better 51% 44% 47% Worse 19 18 14 No effect 30 37 38 DK/NA - - 1 44. Did the presidential debate make you more likely to vote for - Barack Obama, less likely, or did it have no effect on your vote choice? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More likely 9% 10% 8% Less likely 19 18 17 Had no effect 71 70 71 DK/NA 1 1 4 45. Did the presidential debate make you more likely to vote for - Mitt Romney, less likely, or did it have no effect on your vote choice? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More likely 26% 23% 23% Less likely 13 12 10 Had no effect 60 63 64 DK/NA 1 2 4 46. Do you plan on watching or listening to the vice presidential debate on Thursday, October 11th, or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes 85% 84% 81% No 12 13 16 DK/NA 3 2 3 47. Who do you think will win the vice presidential debate, Joe Biden or Paul Ryan? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Biden 30% 36% 32% Ryan 47 41 49 TIE (VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 22 21 19 48a. (CO) Do you think that the use of marijuana should be made legal in Colorado, or not? COLORADO LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes 45% 29% 62% 45% 49% 42% 44% 44% No 46 65 28 46 44 48 47 45 DK/NA 8 6 10 9 7 10 8 11 48b. (VA) How important is the federal government in creating jobs in your state, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? VIRGINIA LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very important 59% 48% 77% 52% 56% 61% 53% 80% Somewhat important 25 27 20 29 22 28 28 14 Not too important 9 15 1 9 10 7 10 3 Not at all important 5 7 - 7 8 2 5 2 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 48c. (WI) Is your opinion of labor unions favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about them? WISCONSIN LIKELY VOTERS...................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Favorable 40% 9% 74% 36% 40% 40% 39% Unfavorable 41 74 9 44 44 39 44 Hvn't hrd enough 15 14 16 15 12 18 13 REFUSED 4 4 1 5 4 4 4 Additional info by state: Colorado: Crosstabs Demographic Summary Virginia: Crosstabs Demographic Summary Wisconsin: Crosstabs Demographic Summary
