February 14, 2008 - Clinton Leads Among Ohio, Pennsylvania Likely Dem Voters, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; November Matchups Remain Close --- FLORIDA: McCain 44 - Clinton 42; McCain 41 - Obama 39; OHIO Democrats: Clinton 55 - Obama 34; PENNSYLVANIA Democrats: Clinton 52 - Obama 36; Word format New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has commanding leads, especially among women, over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Democratic primary voters in the critical swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964. In these two states and Florida, a swing state that already conducted a primary, Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican front-runner, is running neck and neck with either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama. Results are: Florida: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 42 percent; McCain 41 percent - Obama 39 percent; Ohio: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 43 percent; McCain 42 percent - Obama 40 percent; Pennsylvania: Clinton 46 percent - McCain 40 percent; Obama 42 percent - McCain 41 percent. Clinton leads Obama 55 - 34 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in Ohio and 52 - 36 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. These are the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll's first surveys in this election cycle of Ohio and Pennsylvania likely voters, a more select group than the wider range of registered voters surveyed in prior polls. In each state, voters see the economy, not the war in Iraq, as the most important issue. "Despite her losing streak, Sen. Clinton remains far ahead of Sen. Obama among likely Democratic primary voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But in some of the earlier contests Obama has closed similar gaps and gone on to win. With Ohio the next big state, along with Texas, voting on March 4, Clinton must fend off another last-minute Obama surge in the Buckeye State," Brown added. "Ohio is as good a demographic fit for Sen. Clinton as she will find. It is blue-collar America, with a smaller percentage of both Democrats with college educations and African- Americans than in many other states where Sen. Obama has carried the day," said Brown. "If Clinton can't win the primary there, it is very difficult to see how she stops Obama." Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton 56 - 30 percent while men back her 52 - 42 percent. Clinton leads 64 - 28 percent among white Democrats, while Obama leads 64 - 17 percent among black voters. Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 - 34 percent with women, 49 - 39 percent with men and 58 - 31 percent among whites. Obama leads 71 - 10 percent among black Democrats. "With Sen. Obama closing the gap, the winner in Pennsylvania probably will depend on whether blacks, young people and college graduates in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh can turn out in sufficient strength to overcome Sen. Clinton's strong lead among blue collar voters and women," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The survey found that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg gets only 6 to 9 percent running as an independent in any of the three states, and he seems to hurt McCain the most. "If Mayor Bloomberg is thinking about running as an independent because he thinks he can win, he ought to think again," said Brown. Florida In a general election matchup, McCain edges Clinton 44 - 42 percent among registered voters and gets 41 percent to Obama's 39 percent. If New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs as an independent candidate, results are: Clinton at 40 percent to McCain's 38 percent, with 7 percent for Bloomberg; McCain with 37 percent to Obama's 35 percent and 9 percent for Bloomberg. In an open-ended question, allowing for any answer, 33 percent of Florida voters list the economy as the biggest single factor in their presidential vote, with 14 percent for the war in Iraq and 12 percent for healthcare. Florida voters disapprove 61 - 31 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, but disagree 68 - 23 percent with the statement: "I am so angry at President Bush that I will not vote for Republican John McCain for President this November." "Florida is perhaps the most conservative of the big three swing states, but even there Sen. McCain is getting about 80 percent of Republicans, indicating that this problem with conservative voters might not be as great as his problem with conservative leaders," Brown said. Ohio McCain gets 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent in the general election and edges Obama 42 - 40 percent. With Bloomberg in the race, Clinton and McCain tie at 40 percent each, with 6 percent for Bloomberg; McCain gets 39 percent to Obama's 38 percent with 6 percent for Bloomberg. Among Ohio voters, 32 percent list the economy as the most important issue in the campaign, with 16 percent listing Iraq and 14 percent citing healthcare. Ohio voters disapprove 61 - 31 percent of the job President Bush is doing, but only 23 percent say they will take their anger out on McCain. Pennsylvania Clinton leads McCain 46 - 40 percent in the general election, while Obama has 42 percent to McCain's 41 percent. In a three-way race with Bloomberg, Clinton leads McCain 42 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Bloomberg; McCain and Obama are tied at 38 percent each, with 7 percent for Bloomberg. The economy is the most important election issue for 27 percent of Pennsylvania voters, followed by Iraq at 19 percent and healthcare at 14 percent. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 64 - 30 percent of the job President Bush is doing, but only 21 percent say they are so angry at Bush that they will vote against McCain. From February 6 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed: 1,009 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent; 1,748 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percent, including 564 Democratic likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent; 1,419 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, including 577 Democratic likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS................... Wht Wht OH ... .................Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Clinton 55% 52% 56% 64% 17% 60% 66% Obama 34 42 30 28 64 34 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 5 12 7 19 4 8 Age Age No col College 18-44 45+ degree degree Clinton 46% 58% 58% 46% Obama 42 31 32 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 10 9 8 12 Wht Wht PA .....................Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Clinton 52% 49% 54% 58% 10% 52% 62% Obama 36 39 34 31 71 36 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 2 - 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 11 10 12 9 19 8 10 Age Age No col College 18-44 45+ degree degree Clinton 52% 51% 57% 40% Obama 41 34 28 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 7 12 13 6 2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 42% 7% 75% 36% 40% 42% McCain 44 81 14 44 46 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 1 6 3 4 DK/NA 9 6 9 12 9 9 OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 43% 6% 87% 33% 34% 50% McCain 44 81 7 48 51 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 5 5 1 DK/NA 8 6 4 12 7 9 PA .....................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 46% 8% 84% 35% 36% 54% McCain 40 78 9 42 48 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 1 5 5 2 DK/NA 9 7 5 15 8 9 3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 39% 10% 63% 38% 40% 38% McCain 41 77 14 40 44 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 4 5 2 3 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 5 3 5 DK/NA 12 7 13 14 10 13 OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 40% 8% 77% 33% 33% 46% McCain 42 77 12 42 47 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 5 6 7 3 DK/NA 10 10 5 13 10 11 PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 42% 12% 69% 41% 38% 46% McCain 41 70 19 40 47 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 5 4 3 DK/NA 11 12 7 14 10 12 4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, John McCain the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as an independent candidate for whom would you vote? FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 40% 7% 73% 33% 42% 39% McCain 38 73 13 35 37 39 Bloomberg 7 7 2 13 6 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 2 3 DK/NA 10 8 9 13 10 10 OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 40% 6% 84% 29% 33% 47% McCain 40 77 7 38 45 36 Bloomberg 6 6 2 12 7 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 1 6 5 2 DK/NA 9 7 5 13 8 10 PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 42% 8% 81% 27% 31% 52% McCain 36 70 8 36 44 29 Bloomberg 7 7 3 13 11 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 4 3 2 DK/NA 12 12 6 19 10 13 5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat, John McCain the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as an independent candidate for whom would you vote? FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 35% 8% 61% 31% 37% 34% McCain 37 70 12 35 39 37 Bloomberg 9 8 5 15 6 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 4 - 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 13 8 14 15 11 14 OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 38% 8% 74% 31% 32% 43% McCain 39 75 10 37 43 36 Bloomberg 6 5 4 10 7 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 6 6 4 DK/NA 11 7 8 14 10 11 PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 38% 11% 64% 33% 34% 42% McCain 38 65 17 36 41 35 Bloomberg 7 8 4 10 10 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 5 4 4 4 DK/NA 13 12 9 16 11 14 6. Thinking ahead to the November 2008 presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your vote for president? FL OH PA Abortion 1% 3% 1% Budget Total 2% 1% - Budget deficits 1 - - Gov too big/Gov spending 1 - - Budget general - 1 - Economy Total 33% 32% 27% Economy general 27 22 22 Unemployment/jobs 2 6 2 Cost of living 2 2 1 Business leaving/Outsourcing 2 2 1 Stock Market - - 1 Education Total 1% 1% 3% Education general 1 1 2 Teachers - - 1 Energy Total - 1% 1% Energy general - 1 - Gas prices - - 1 Environment/Pollution 1% - - Ethics/Values/Morality Total 1% 1% - Lack of ethics - 1 - Lack of religion 1 - - Foreign affairs/policy general 1% 1% 1% Healthcare Total 12% 14% 14% Healthcare/Costs/Ins/HMO's 11 13 14 Medicare 1 1 - Hurricanes 1% - - Immigration 6% 3% 4% Politicians Total 3% 3% 2% Political corruption 1 1 - Bush administration 1 1 1 Politicians/Campaigns other 1 1 1 Senior issues 1% 1% 1% Social security 1% - 1% Taxes Total 4% 2% 3% Taxes general 2 2 3 Property tax 1 - - Gas tax 1 - - Terrorism Total 6% 4% 5% Terrorism general 2 1 2 Security/Safety 4 3 3 War (Iraq) 14% 16% 19% Other 7% 8% 9% DK/NA 4% 9% 9% 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? FL .....................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 31% 67% 11% 19% 34% 29% Disapprove 61 23 82 76 56 65 DK/NA 8 10 6 5 10 6 OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 31% 64% 5% 27% 37% 27% Disapprove 61 25 91 68 57 65 DK/NA 7 11 4 5 7 8 PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 30% 60% 4% 30% 35% 25% Disapprove 64 32 93 63 60 69 DK/NA 6 8 3 7 5 6 8. Does President Bush's job performance make you more likely to vote for Republican John McCain for President this November, less likely to vote for him, or doesn't it make a difference? FL .....................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 11% 22% 5% 4% 9% 12% Less likely 28 5 42 35 29 27 Doesn't make diff 58 70 47 59 59 57 DK/NA 4 3 6 1 4 4 OH .....................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 9% 18% 3% 5% 10% 8% Less likely 24 5 46 22 20 28 Doesn't make diff 63 75 46 69 66 61 DK/NA 4 2 4 4 4 4 PA ....................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 8% 15% 3% 6% 8% 8% Less likely 28 6 48 25 25 30 Doesn't make diff 61 76 45 68 64 59 DK/NA 3 2 4 1 2 3 9. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: "I am so angry at President Bush that I will not vote for Republican John McCain for president this November"? FL .....................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 23% 2% 41% 22% 24% 22% Disagree 68 96 42 71 68 67 DK/NA 9 1 18 7 8 11 OH ....................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 23% 3% 47% 19% 20% 25% Disagree 72 95 46 77 75 70 DK/NA 5 2 7 4 5 5 PA ....................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 21% 4% 40% 16% 18% 25% Disagree 74 93 53 82 79 70 DK/NA 4 2 7 2 4 5
