June 18, 2008 - Obama Leads McCain In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton On The Ticket Does Not Help Dems --- FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 43; OHIO: Obama 48 - McCain 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 40 Word format With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the apparent Democratic presidential contender, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, expected to be the Republican candidate, among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show: Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent; Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent; Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent. In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state. "Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama. He now leads in all three of the major swing states, although his margins in Florida and Ohio are small," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the race to be the next president." While Democrats support the idea, independent voters in each state say Obama should not choose Sen. Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Results are: Florida: Democrats want Clinton on the ticket 57 - 33 percent while Republicans are opposed 59 - 17 percent and independents oppose it 46 - 37 percent; Ohio: Democrats want Clinton for Vice President 58 - 31 percent, but Republicans say no 60 - 19 percent and independents turn thumbs down 47 - 31 percent; Pennsylvania: Democrats say yes to Clinton 60 - 31 percent, while Republicans say no 63 - 20 percent and independents nix the idea 49 - 36 percent. "If Sen. Obama seriously is thinking about picking Sen. Clinton as his running mate, these numbers might cause him to reconsider. The people who really matter come November - independent voters - turn thumbs down on the idea. And, many say they are less likely to vote for him if he puts her on the ticket," Brown added. "One in five voters say McCain's age is a reason to vote against him. But overwhelmingly they don't see Obama's race as a factor at all - indicating that Americans are either much less concerned with race, or just don't want to tell callers what they really think on the subject." President Bush's approval ratings are: 27 - 66 percent in Florida; 22 - 71 percent in Ohio; 24 - 72 percent in Pennsylvania. Fifty to 58 percent of voters in each state list the economy as the most important issue in deciding how they will vote. By almost 2 - 1 margins in each state, voters say going to war in Iraq was wrong. But they split between Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops under a fixed timetable and McCain's plan to keep troops there until the situation stabilizes and then withdraw without a set schedule. "The only good news for McCain in these numbers is that despite voters' views on the war, he is holding his own with them about where to go from here," said Brown. Florida Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 50 - 40 percent while black voters back Obama 95 - 4 percent. Obama leads 57 -35 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; he splits 48 - 46 percent with McCain among voters 35 to 54, and 44 - 46 percent with voters over 55. Thirteen percent of those who voted for President Bush in 2004 now support Obama. And 19 percent of those who backed Clinton in the primaries now support McCain. Obama gets a 48 - 33 percent favorability rating, with 47 - 35 percent for McCain. While 23 percent of Florida voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his age, 73 percent say it doesn't matter. Obama's race won't affect their vote 88 percent say. A total of 86 percent of Florida likely voters say the vice presidential candidate is "very important" or "somewhat important" to their vote. Looking at native sons, voters say: 15 - 8 percent that they would be less likely to vote Democratic if Sen. Bill Nelson is on the ticket, with 69 percent who say it won't affect their vote; 21 - 16 percent that they would be less likely to vote Republican if Gov. Charlie Crist is the vice presidential candidate, while 58 percent say it won't make a difference. "Picking a Floridian for vice president apparently won't help either nominee carry the state's 27 electoral votes," said Brown. Ohio Obama leads 51 - 39 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men go 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters also are narrowly divided with 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, but Obama commands black voters 90 - 6 percent. The Democrat also leads 58 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 and 49 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain has the 47 - 43 percent edge among voters over 55. Again, 13 percent of those who voted for Bush in 2004 now back Obama, while 25 percent of those who backed Clinton in the primaries now support McCain. Voters give Obama a 52 - 29 percent favorability, with 46 - 33 percent for McCain. Because of his age, 22 percent of Ohio voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75 percent say it doesn't matter. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 89 percent say. While 85 percent of Ohio voters say the vice presidential selection is "very important" or "somewhat important" to their votes, native sons do not fare well. Voters say: 17 - 11 percent that they are less likely to vote Democratic if Gov. Ted Strickland is the running mate, while 68 percent say it won't make a difference; 10 - 5 percent that they are less likely to vote Republican if Sen. Rob Portman is the vice presidential candidate, while 78 percent say it won't make a difference. "Although he still trails among white working-class voters, Sen. Obama is within hailing distance among them and doing well enough that if he keeps the same level of support through November he's likely to carry Ohio," Brown said. Pennsylvania Obama tops McCain 57 - 34 percent with women as men go 47 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama. Obama leads 61 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 48 - 43 percent with voters over 55. The Democrat inches ahead 47 - 44 percent among white voters and leads among black voters 95 - 1 percent. Obama gets a 54 - 25 percent favorability, to 43 - 33 percent for McCain. Nineteen percent of the people who voted for Bush in 2004 now back Obama, while 24 percent of the voters who supported Clinton in the primaries now back McCain. McCain's age will not affect their vote, 73 percent say, while 24 percent say they are less likely to vote for him because of his age. Obama's race will not affect their vote, 88 percent say. A total of 87 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say the vice presidential candidate is "very important" or "somewhat" important in their November vote. But looking at some choices, voters say: 25 - 16 percent that they would be less likely to vote Democratic if Gov. Ed Rendell is on the ticket, while 56 percent say it won't make a difference; Split 18 - 18 percent on whether they would be more likely to vote for McCain if he is running with Tom Ridge, while 62 percent say it doesn't make a difference. "Pennsylvania continues to be the most Democratic of the three states, the state where Sen. Barack Obama does best overall and the only state where he leads, however slightly, among white voters," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The long spring primary season appears to have hardened the battle lines, with more than 75 percent of the voters in each state saying they have made up their minds on how they will vote in the Fall." From June 9 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed: 1,453 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,396 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,511 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Obama 47% 11% 82% 47% 44% 50% 40% 95% 52% McCain 43 85 12 37 47 40 50 4 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 1 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 3 6 12 7 8 9 1 5 IMP ISSUE Q4 North/ War Econ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 61% 55% 35% 51% 39% 48% 61% McCain 32 36 56 38 52 42 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 3 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 8 6 8 7 10 8 WHITES................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 57% 48% 44% 38% 44% 38% 41% 22% 38% McCain 35 46 46 50 48 52 48 66 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 5 9 10 6 8 10 8 9 PresVt2004.. CongVt2008.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ14 Bush Kerry Rep Dem Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 13% 82% 9% 81% 71% 97% 8% 66% McCain 80 9 87 14 19 3 87 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 3 4 7 1 4 8 TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS..................................... Jun 18 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 14 Oct 25 Oct 10 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Obama 42 41 43 37 39 42 39 McCain 39 45 44 46 41 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 3 4 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 4 6 4 5 6 DK/NA 14 8 8 9 12 9 11 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". OHIO LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Obama 48% 7% 80% 43% 45% 51% 44% 90% 52% McCain 42 87 13 45 46 39 47 6 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 5 11 7 8 8 4 8 IMP ISSUE Q4 War Econ Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Obama 48% 55% 46% 53% 48% 39% 49% 44% McCain 40 37 45 36 40 54 46 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 1 3 2 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 7 6 9 11 7 4 5 WHITES................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 58% 49% 43% 43% 45% 42% 46% 35% 45% McCain 36 42 47 46 50 49 44 55 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 8 8 5 7 8 7 7 PresVt2004.. CongVt2008.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ14 Bush Kerry Rep Dem Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 13% 78% 9% 75% 63% 89% 8% 65% McCain 80 13 85 16 25 8 85 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 3 3 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 4 6 9 3 7 7 TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS..................................... Jun 18 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Obama 42 40 42 43 40 43 41 McCain 38 44 43 42 42 39 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 5 5 5 4 5 DK/NA 15 9 8 8 10 10 10 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". PENNSYLVANIA LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Obama 52% 16% 78% 50% 45% 57% 47% 95% 51% McCain 40 79 14 39 47 34 44 1 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 5 6 8 6 8 7 4 6 IMP ISSUE Q4 War Econ Algny Phily NEast SEast NWest SWest Cntrl Obama 59% 56% 51% 77% 46% 54% 45% 46% 46% McCain 30 37 40 18 42 39 46 44 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 3 - 2 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 6 6 5 10 7 8 7 6 WHITES................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 61% 51% 48% 47% 48% 41% 53% 34% 45% McCain 33 41 43 44 45 51 38 58 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 8 7 5 6 7 7 8 PresVt2004.. CongVt2008.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ14 Bush Kerry Rep Dem Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 19% 83% 18% 73% 66% 93% 12% 66% McCain 74 11 77 18 24 5 81 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 4 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 5 5 7 7 1 6 6 TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS..................................... Jun 18 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 27 Feb 14 Oct 10 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 Obama 45 46 47 43 42 42 45 McCain 36 40 38 39 40 41 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 4 4 4 4 4 DK/NA 14 8 9 11 12 11 8 1a. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 FL Tot Obama McCain Made up 79% 79% 79% Might change 19 19 19 DK/NA 2 2 3 OH Tot Obama McCain Made up 77% 81% 73% Might change 21 18 24 DK/NA 2 1 3 PA Tot Obama McCain Made up 75% 75% 74% Might change 24 24 24 DK/NA 1 1 1 2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 48% 21% 75% 47% 45% 51% 41% 83% 50% Unfavorable 33 61 11 29 38 27 38 5 28 Hvn't hrd enough 15 15 11 21 13 18 16 9 19 REFUSED 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 52% 23% 74% 49% 51% 53% 48% 87% 54% Unfavorable 29 58 12 25 34 24 32 3 27 Hvn't hrd enough 16 15 11 22 14 18 17 11 15 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 2 4 3 - 3 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 54% 29% 70% 55% 48% 59% 50% 92% 52% Unfavorable 25 47 12 23 32 20 27 2 24 Hvn't hrd enough 18 21 15 21 18 18 20 4 23 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 47% 78% 24% 41% 52% 42% 52% 10% 46% Unfavorable 35 11 56 39 36 35 32 63 40 Hvn't hrd enough 13 9 15 16 8 18 12 20 12 REFUSED 4 2 5 4 4 5 4 7 3 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 46% 74% 29% 45% 51% 41% 50% 18% 42% Unfavorable 33 12 50 29 33 34 31 57 39 Hvn't hrd enough 18 13 18 22 14 22 17 24 16 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 1 3 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 43% 70% 22% 46% 48% 38% 45% 18% 37% Unfavorable 33 10 53 28 30 36 31 53 37 Hvn't hrd enough 21 17 22 24 18 23 21 27 24 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 1 4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS) LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Terrorism 9% 20% 3% 7% 11% 8% 10% 6% 8% The war in Iraq 18 14 22 20 19 17 19 17 19 The economy 53 42 60 55 51 55 52 61 60 Illegal immigration 5 9 1 6 5 5 6 - 5 Health care 7 4 11 5 6 8 6 8 2 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 7 2 2 4 4 3 4 4 DK/NA 3 3 1 4 3 3 3 5 3 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Terrorism 6% 14% 1% 5% 6% 5% 6% - 4% The war in Iraq 16 13 18 16 15 16 17 10 15 The economy 58 52 62 60 57 59 56 73 61 Illegal immigration 3 6 1 2 4 2 3 - 3 Health care 12 9 15 9 11 12 11 16 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 3 3 3 - 2 DK/NA 4 5 2 4 4 3 4 1 4 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Terrorism 7% 13% 4% 7% 9% 6% 8% 4% 7% The war in Iraq 20 17 21 21 18 22 20 17 19 The economy 50 49 54 48 52 49 51 49 54 Illegal immigration 4 7 1 6 6 3 4 - 4 Health care 12 9 16 10 9 14 11 28 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 4 2 5 3 4 3 3 4 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 3 2 2 - 2 5. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 3% 5% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 1% 1% Less likely 23 7 36 25 23 22 21 36 24 Doesn't make diff 73 87 61 71 72 74 75 62 75 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% - 1% Less likely 22 7 34 20 21 23 20 38 26 Doesn't make diff 75 90 65 77 76 74 77 62 71 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 2% 4% - 1% 2% 1% 2% - 1% Less likely 24 10 34 23 19 28 22 42 24 Doesn't make diff 73 85 64 76 78 69 75 56 74 DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 2 1 2 - 6. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 5% 2% 9% 5% 5% 5% 3% 16% 4% Less likely 5 9 3 3 5 5 6 - 4 Doesn't make diff 88 88 87 90 88 89 90 84 92 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 5% 1% 7% 4% 6% 3% 3% 16% 5% Less likely 6 8 5 5 6 5 6 - 9 Doesn't make diff 89 90 87 91 87 90 90 84 85 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 5% - 11% 2% 5% 5% 3% 31% 4% Less likely 5 6 5 3 6 3 5 1 6 Doesn't make diff 88 92 82 95 86 90 90 68 88 DK/NA 2 2 2 - 2 1 2 - 2 7. In deciding your vote for president how important is the vice-presidential candidate - Very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very important 49% 43% 57% 44% 41% 56% 46% 58% 55% Smwht important 37 40 31 43 39 35 40 33 33 Not too important 9 11 8 8 13 5 10 7 7 Not important at all 4 4 3 5 6 2 3 2 4 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very important 46% 45% 49% 44% 41% 50% 44% 55% 45% Smwht important 39 41 37 40 39 39 40 37 42 Not too important 11 12 11 9 14 7 11 5 10 Not important at all 4 2 3 5 5 2 4 3 2 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very important 46% 42% 52% 41% 41% 51% 45% 57% 42% Smwht important 41 46 38 40 41 41 42 35 47 Not too important 10 9 8 14 13 7 10 3 8 Not important at all 3 3 2 5 5 1 3 4 3 DK/NA - - 1 - - 1 - 1 1 8. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice-Presidential running mate or not? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 37% 17% 57% 37% 29% 44% 33% 50% 45% No 45 59 33 46 52 39 49 38 37 DK/NA 17 24 10 17 18 17 19 11 18 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 40% 19% 58% 31% 34% 45% 38% 53% 43% No 43 60 31 47 48 37 43 38 39 DK/NA 18 21 11 22 18 18 19 9 18 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 41% 20% 60% 36% 35% 47% 40% 52% 44% No 45 63 31 49 50 41 46 36 46 DK/NA 14 17 10 15 15 13 14 11 10 9. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 21% 7% 34% 22% 14% 27% 20% 18% 28% Less likely 19 36 5 18 24 14 22 2 15 Doesn't make diff 56 52 60 56 57 55 55 77 55 DK/NA 4 5 2 5 5 4 4 4 2 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 23% 7% 37% 15% 19% 26% 22% 29% 22% Less likely 20 41 5 25 25 16 22 7 21 Doesn't make diff 55 50 56 58 55 55 54 63 55 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 1 4 2 1 3 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 25% 9% 39% 21% 18% 31% 24% 30% 31% Less likely 21 40 5 27 23 19 23 4 16 Doesn't make diff 52 49 54 51 57 47 50 66 50 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 - 3 10. If Barack Obama chooses (Bill Nelson, Ted Strickland, Ed Rendell) to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL - Bill Nelson Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 8% 6% 11% 9% 9% 8% 9% 5% 8% Less likely 15 12 16 17 15 14 14 11 13 Doesn't make diff 69 75 66 67 71 68 70 80 70 DK/NA 7 7 7 6 5 10 6 4 9 Union OH - Ted Strickland Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 11% 9% 12% 13% 12% 10% 12% 3% 12% Less likely 17 18 16 18 19 15 16 16 16 Doesn't make diff 68 70 69 64 68 69 68 78 69 DK/NA 4 3 3 5 1 6 4 3 3 Union PA - Ed Rendell Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 16% 12% 19% 16% 15% 16% 15% 18% 16% Less likely 25 36 19 25 27 24 27 19 25 Doesn't make diff 56 49 61 56 56 56 56 61 57 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 1 11. If John McCain chooses (Charlie Crist, Rob Portman, Tom Ridge) to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL - Charlie Crist Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 16% 26% 9% 15% 17% 15% 19% 5% 19% Less likely 21 14 24 22 22 20 20 25 20 Doesn't make diff 58 55 62 60 56 61 58 67 58 DK/NA 5 5 4 3 5 4 4 2 3 Union OH - Rob Portman Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 5% 12% 2% 4% 7% 3% 5% 3% 6% Less likely 10 6 13 9 11 9 10 12 12 Doesn't make diff 78 73 80 79 77 80 78 83 76 DK/NA 7 8 5 7 5 8 7 2 6 Union PA - Tom Ridge Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 18% 37% 7% 15% 20% 16% 19% 2% 18% Less likely 18 8 25 20 19 18 17 27 20 Doesn't make diff 62 53 65 63 60 63 62 64 61 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 7 - 12. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think she would enthusiastically promote Barack Obama's agenda at the expense of her own ideas or not? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 40% 26% 55% 38% 36% 44% 37% 50% 50% No 42 58 29 43 47 38 46 32 32 DK/NA 18 16 17 20 17 18 17 18 18 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 44% 30% 57% 40% 44% 44% 42% 60% 44% No 40 52 29 44 42 37 41 31 44 DK/NA 16 18 13 15 14 19 17 10 11 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 47% 38% 58% 42% 42% 51% 46% 49% 54% No 39 52 27 44 47 33 41 31 38 DK/NA 14 10 15 14 11 16 13 20 8 13. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think Bill Clinton would be a problem to the Obama administration or not? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 43% 62% 28% 41% 48% 38% 47% 38% 43% No 48 26 66 49 41 54 45 54 50 DK/NA 9 12 6 10 11 8 8 8 7 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 38% 63% 25% 36% 39% 37% 39% 32% 34% No 56 29 70 58 56 56 55 62 61 DK/NA 7 8 5 6 5 8 7 6 5 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 42% 62% 28% 42% 46% 38% 42% 42% 35% No 53 33 68 53 50 56 53 58 62 DK/NA 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 1 3 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 27% 60% 6% 17% 31% 24% 30% 12% 29% Disapprove 66 33 91 75 62 70 64 79 66 DK/NA 6 8 3 8 7 6 6 9 5 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 22% 57% 4% 18% 23% 21% 24% 5% 16% Disapprove 71 34 93 72 71 71 69 93 76 DK/NA 7 9 3 9 6 8 7 1 8 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 24% 52% 6% 19% 26% 21% 25% 3% 18% Disapprove 72 41 92 75 69 74 70 97 77 DK/NA 5 6 2 7 5 5 5 - 5 15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very satisfied 2% 5% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% - 1% Smwht satisfied 15 30 4 12 17 14 17 6 15 Smwht dissatisfied 26 42 17 21 27 26 28 22 23 Very dissatisfied 55 22 78 64 51 59 53 72 61 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 2 - 1 - - Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very satisfied 2% 5% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% - 1% Smwht satisfied 15 36 3 12 17 13 16 3 8 Smwht dissatisfied 25 35 16 28 23 27 26 20 25 Very dissatisfied 57 24 79 58 56 58 55 77 65 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - 1 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very satisfied 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% Smwht satisfied 15 34 5 11 17 14 16 2 13 Smwht dissatisfied 27 36 18 34 29 25 29 10 24 Very dissatisfied 56 26 77 54 53 59 53 88 62 DK/NA - 1 - - - - - - - 16. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Right thing 34% 71% 7% 27% 39% 29% 38% 11% 31% Wrong thing 59 21 89 64 53 63 54 86 65 DK/NA 8 8 4 9 8 7 8 4 4 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Right thing 33% 70% 9% 35% 37% 29% 34% 16% 28% Wrong thing 60 21 88 55 57 63 58 84 65 DK/NA 7 10 3 11 6 8 8 - 7 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Right thing 32% 63% 13% 26% 39% 26% 35% 6% 37% Wrong thing 62 30 82 67 56 67 59 93 60 DK/NA 6 6 5 8 5 7 6 1 3 17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - (Option order rotated) LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A. Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 46% 19% 66% 52% 40% 51% 41% 68% 54% B. Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 48 74 29 42 54 42 53 28 42 DK/NA 7 7 4 6 6 7 6 4 3 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A. Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 42% 21% 60% 36% 36% 47% 40% 65% 46% B. Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 53 77 35 57 59 47 55 34 49 DK/NA 6 2 6 7 5 6 5 1 5 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A. Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 49% 21% 69% 48% 41% 55% 46% 78% 50% B. Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 47 75 27 47 54 40 50 21 44 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 6 18. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Getting ahead 13% 16% 10% 12% 17% 9% 12% 17% 15% Falling behind 24 11 30 30 20 27 23 24 19 Holding steady 61 70 58 56 59 62 64 55 66 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 4 - Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Getting ahead 12% 17% 10% 8% 14% 10% 12% 7% 11% Falling behind 28 12 37 29 26 30 26 41 29 Holding steady 60 70 53 62 60 60 62 51 59 DK/NA 1 - - - 1 1 1 - - Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Getting ahead 12% 16% 10% 8% 13% 11% 12% 13% 8% Falling behind 25 18 29 30 23 28 25 35 28 Holding steady 61 65 60 61 64 60 62 51 63 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 19. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A. Declining retirement fund values B. Declining real estate values C. Rising health care costs D. Rising gasoline prices E. Rising food prices LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union FL Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A. Retirement funds 7% 8% 6% 8% 6% 8% 9% 6% 7% B. Real estate val 9 11 7 12 12 8 10 9 9 C. Health care cost 15 12 19 12 13 16 16 14 9 D. Gasoline prices 48 52 43 51 51 46 48 45 59 E. Food prices 13 12 17 10 11 15 11 14 11 DK/NA 7 5 7 8 7 8 7 12 5 Union OH Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A. Retirement funds 9% 8% 9% 11% 9% 10% 9% 9% 11% B. Real estate val 6 6 6 4 7 4 5 8 5 C. Health care cost 18 15 21 17 19 18 19 19 19 D. Gasoline prices 50 55 49 46 49 51 50 42 51 E. Food prices 12 10 12 15 11 13 12 17 10 DK/NA 5 6 3 6 6 4 5 5 4 Union PA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds A. Retirement funds 9% 10% 7% 10% 9% 8% 10% 1% 9% B. Real estate val 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 2 C. Health care cost 18 15 19 19 16 19 17 25 14 D. Gasoline prices 52 56 50 50 54 50 52 40 58 E. Food prices 14 11 15 14 13 14 13 28 13 DK/NA 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 2 4
