November 11, 2011 - Mack Attack Sweeps Florida GOP Senate Pack, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rubio Untouched By Family History Challenge Word format By tossing his hat into the ring, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack has transformed the campaign for Florida's U.S. Senate seat, putting him far ahead of the field for the Republican nomination and in a statistical dead heat in the general election, with 40 percent to incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson's 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Mack, son of the former U.S. senator who bears his same name, gets 32 percent of the vote in the GOP primary, while none of the other four mostly unknown aspirants get more than 9 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Questions regarding U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's comments about when his family emigrated from Cuba have had almost no effect on his job approval rating. He receives a 49 - 29 percent score, no change from the 49 - 31 percent thumbs up September 21. Gov. Rick Scott's job approval remains in the toilet: 36 percent approve of his job performance, while 50 percent disapprove. Among independent voters, the key to carrying Florida, Scott has a 56 - 29 percent disapproval rating. Scott gets a 67 - 22 percent thumbs up among Republicans, but a 73 - 14 percent thumbs down from Democrats. He does okay with men, who split 43 - 46 percent, but woman say no way 55 - 30 percent. "The entrance of Congressman Connie Mack into the Senate race changes what had been shaping up as an easy reelection for Sen. Bill Nelson into a tough fight that the incumbent could lose," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The fact that Mack is essentially tied with Nelson, who has been a statewide political figure for two decades, should set off warning bells at Democratic headquarters." Also-rans in the GOP primary are former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux with 9 percent, former army officer Mike McCalister at 6 percent and 2 percent each for businessman Craig Miller and former state House GOP leader Adam Hasner. "Although 45 percent of GOP voters, including 59 percent of GOP women, say they are undecided, Mack becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination," Brown said. "Mack's candidacy may force the other GOP contenders to reconsider whether they want to stay in the race." Although Nelson has a positive 47 - 27 percent job approval rating, the entrance of Mack into the race makes his seat very competitive. Independent voters approve of Nelson 47 - 26 percent, but back him 42 - 34 percent in a 2012 matchup with Mack. Both candidates carry their party bases similarly; Nelson wins Democrats 78 - 8 percent, as Mack takes Republicans 79 - 8 percent. In a Nelson-Mack race, the incumbent carries women 45 - 34 percent, but loses men 47 - 38 percent. Nelson loses whites who call themselves evangelical Christians 61 - 28 percent and loses among all whites 46 - 39 percent. "In a race as close as the Nelson-Mack affair could become, how President Barack Obama does in the Sunshine State in his re-election could play a major role in deciding who wins the Senate seat," said Brown. From October 31 - November 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,185 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 513 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2a. (If Registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Connie Mack, Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Craig Miller and Mike McCalister for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS......................... WHITE....... TEA PARTY BrnAgnEvangl Tot Men Wom Yes No Yes No Mack 32% 40% 23% 30% 32% 36% 32% Hasner 2 3 1 4 1 - 2 LeMieux 9 12 6 14 7 11 8 Miller 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 McCalister 6 8 4 14 3 5 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 1 4 3 4 DK/NA 45 31 59 34 49 44 43 TREND: (If registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Connie Mack, Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Craig Miller and Mike McCalister for whom would you vote? (na=not asked) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........ Nov 11 Sep 22 Aug 04 May 26 2011 2011 2011 2011 Mack 32 na na na Hasner 2 5 6 4 LeMieux 9 17 12 14 Miller 2 5 8 na McCalister 6 11 15 na Haridopolos na na na 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 4 DK/NA 45 58 53 64 11a. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Connie Mack the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Nelson 42% 8% 78% 42% 38% 45% 39% 64% 35% Mack 40 79 8 34 47 34 46 12 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 16 11 14 21 14 18 13 24 24 WHITE.................... TEA PARTY BrnAgnEvangl COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... Yes No Yes No Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ Nelson 14% 47% 28% 44% 42% 38% 31% 43% 46% Mack 79 34 61 39 42 47 34 44 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 17 9 15 13 13 31 11 12 19a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 49% 78% 27% 44% 51% 47% 53% 27% 52% Disapprove 29 8 46 33 30 28 27 48 23 DK/NA 22 14 26 23 19 24 20 25 25 WHITE.................... TEA PARTY BrnAgnEvangl COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... Yes No Yes No Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 83% 44% 68% 46% 52% 54% 39% 54% 52% Disapprove 11 33 16 32 32 24 25 26 32 DK/NA 6 23 17 22 17 22 36 20 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Nov 11 Sep 21 Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 49 49 49 45 49 47 42 Disapprove 29 31 36 35 26 23 20 DK/NA 22 20 15 20 24 30 37 19b. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 47% 35% 61% 47% 45% 49% 48% 52% 40% Disapprove 27 42 14 26 35 21 29 24 26 DK/NA 26 24 25 26 20 31 24 24 34 WHITE.................... TEA PARTY BrnAgnEvangl COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... Yes No Yes No Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 35% 49% 40% 51% 48% 47% 39% 48% 50% Disapprove 54 24 39 24 29 28 20 30 29 DK/NA 10 27 21 25 23 24 41 22 21 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004) DEBT DEAL..... APPROVE....... Post Pre High Low Nov 11 Sep 22 Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Feb 06 Aug 04 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2007 2011* Approve 47 45 42 45 51 54 42 Disapprove 27 32 35 33 24 18 35 DK/NA 26 23 23 22 25 28 23 Demographic Summary
