December 8, 2011 - Gingrich Has Big GOP Lead In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Romney Runs Only Slightly Better Against Obama Word format Crosstabs and Trends by State FLORIDA: Romney 45 - Obama 42; Obama 46 - Gingrich 44 OHIO: Romney 43 - Obama 42; Gingrich 43 - Obama 42 PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 46 - Romney 43; Obama 48 - Gingrich 40 Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich holds double-digit leads over the Republican primary field and cuts sharply into President Barack Obama's general election lead should he win the GOP nomination, according to today's Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In head-to-head matchups, Republican voters choose Gingrich over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by margins of 18-27 percentage points. Matching President Obama against either Gingrich or Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying at least two of them - the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds: Florida: Romney with 45 percent to Obama's 42 percent; Obama at 46 percent to Gingrich's 44 percent. Ohio: Romney at 43 percent to Obama's 42 percent; Gingrich with 43 percent to Obama's 42 percent. Pennsylvania: Obama edging Romney 46 - 43 percent; Obama tops Gingrich 48 - 40 percent. "Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is no longer just the flavor of the month since his boomlet has now stretched from November into December and voting begins in Iowa in less than four weeks," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The suspension of Herman Cain's campaign is unlikely to hurt Gingrich and might help him visa-vie Romney by reducing the number of candidates courting Tea Party voters." "Gingrich certainly has the momentum on his side and is peaking at the right moment, but Romney has the edge in money and organization, which can be important especially if the primary race turns out to be a long, drawn-out affair," said Brown. "It is worth remembering also that four years ago at this time, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani was the Republican leader. "Gingrich's surge in the GOP race is accompanied by a better showing among independent voters in a general election race against President Obama, although he still has a ways to go. The president still leads Gingrich in Pennsylvania, but Ohio and Florida are too close to call. And Romney runs only slightly better against Obama, diluting his claim that he has the best chance to win. "The media says the White House wants to run against Gingrich because he will be easier to beat than Romney, but the data is less clear today than it was last month on that point. When it comes to the November 2012 electorate, Romney has a much better favorable/unfavorable ratio with the overall electorate, although Gingrich's is improving in Florida and Ohio." Florida Gingrich is top dog in the Republican pack in Florida, with 35 percent, followed by Romney with 22 percent and no other candidate above 8 percent. Gingrich tops Romney in a head-to-head matchup 52 - 34 percent. All Florida voters give Gingrich a negative 34 - 38 percent favorability rating, compared to Romney's positive 39 - 28 percent and Obama's split 47 - 48 percent. Florida voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing 54 - 41 percent and say 51 - 44 percent he does not deserve reelection. The economy is the most important issue for 53 percent of Florida Republicans, who split 31 - 29 percent on whether Gingrich or Romney would do the best job among GOP contenders on the economy. All voters say 49 - 41 percent that Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama. Gingrich gets 47 percent on this measure to Obama's 44 percent. Comparing Gingrich and Romney on other issues, Florida Republicans say: 58 - 15 percent that Gingrich would do a better job on foreign policy; 55 - 22 percent that Gingrich has the knowledge and experience to be a good president; 35 - 13 percent that Romney has strong moral character; 42 - 28 percent that Gingrich is a strong leader. "The Gingrich lead in the primary over Romney is smallest in the Sunshine State, and the data does not take into account a key factor: Money might be more important here than in any of the early primary states. That's because of the large number of expensive media markets where television ads cost a pretty penny. Romney's large lead over the field when it comes to cash reserves could be very important in deciding the outcome in Florida," said Brown. Ohio Gingrich leads the Republican primary field in Ohio with 36 percent, 2-1 over Romney's 18 percent. No other candidate tops 7 percent. Gingrich buries Romney in a head-to-head matchup 55 - 28 percent. Gingrich gets a negative 32 - 38 percent favorability rating from all Ohio voters, compared to Romney's positive 32 - 28 percent and Obama's negative 42 - 52 percent. Ohio voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing 55 - 41 percent and say 53 - 42 percent he does not deserve reelection. Among 50 percent of Ohio Republicans, the economy is the most important issue. Republicans say 31 - 24 percent that Gingrich rather than Romney would do the best job among GOP contenders on the economy. All voters say 47 - 39 percent that Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama. Gingrich tops Obama 48 - 41 percent on the economy. Comparing Gingrich and Romney on other issues, Ohio Republicans say: 51 - 11 percent that Gingrich would do a better job on foreign policy; 54 - 20 percent that Gingrich has the knowledge and experience to be a good president; 30 - 13 percent that Romney has strong moral character; 44 - 20 percent that Gingrich is a strong leader. "The White House is very concerned about the Buckeye State because of the large numbers of whites without college educations - a group among which Obama has been doing poorly," said Brown. "The White House has been dispatching Vice President Joseph Biden to help with such voters. But Biden's favorable/unfavorable rating in Ohio is a negative 34 - 40 percent. The GOP, however, has some fence-mending to do in the state because of the strongly negative image the party picked up in a bitter fight over the state budget and union rights." Pennsylvania Gingrich is number one in Pennsylvania's Republican primary pack with 31 percent, eclipsing Romney's 17 percent. Native son Rick Santorum has 9 percent and no other candidate tops 7 percent. In a two-man faceoff, Gingrich thumps Romney 50 - 31 percent. Gingrich gets a negative 30 - 44 percent favorability rating from all Pennsylvania voters, compared to Romney's positive 34 - 30 percent and Obama's 46 - 47 percent split. Biden, a Scranton native with deep blue collar roots, has a 43 - 39 percent favorability. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 52 - 43 percent of the job Obama is doing and split 47 - 49 percent on whether he deserves reelection. For 43 percent of Pennsylvania Republicans, the economy is the most important issue. Republicans say 30 - 22 percent that Gingrich rather than Romney would do the best job among GOP contenders on the economy. All voters say 48 - 42 percent that Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama. Obama gets 46 percent to Gingrich's 45 percent on the economy. Comparing Gingrich and Romney on other issues, Pennsylvania Republicans say: 47 - 12 percent that Gingrich would do a better job on foreign policy; 49 - 18 percent that Gingrich has the knowledge and experience to be a good president; 26 - 9 percent that Romney has strong moral character; 41 - 22 percent that Gingrich is a strong leader. "The fact that both Romney and Gingrich trail the president by 3 and 8 points respectively at this point in the Keystone State could be a good sign for the Republicans given that Obama carried Pennsylvania by double digits in 2008," said Brown. "It is almost impossible to come up with a reasonable scenario in which Obama loses Pennsylvania - which hasn't voted Republican for President since 1988 - and keeps his job. "This looks like a job for Vice President Joe Biden." From November 28 - December 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed: 1,226 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent, including 509 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent; 1,437 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, including 500 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent; 1,453 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, including 578 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and nationwide as a public service and for research. . For individual statewide crosstabs and trends call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs and Trends by State 1. (If Registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 4% 4% 3% Gingrich 35 36 31 Romney 22 18 17 Bachmann 4 5 3 Santorum 2 2 9 Paul 8 7 7 Huntsman 2 1 3 Cain 8 7 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 DK/NA 12 15 18 2. (If Registered Republican) Suppose the primary came down to a choice between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Romney 34% 28% 31% Gingrich 52 55 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 5 DK/NA 9 13 11 3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL OH PA Obama 42% 42% 46% Romney 45 43 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 DK/NA 6 8 6 4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Newt Gingrich the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL OH PA Obama 46% 42% 48% Gingrich 44 43 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 DK/NA 5 7 6 5. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL OH PA Favorable 39% 32% 34% Unfavorable 28 28 30 Hvn't hrd enough 30 38 33 REFUSED 2 2 3 6. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL OH PA Favorable 34% 32% 30% Unfavorable 38 38 44 Hvn't hrd enough 25 29 24 REFUSED 2 1 2 7. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL OH PA Favorable 47% 42% 46% Unfavorable 48 52 47 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 3 REFUSED 2 3 4 8. Is your opinion of - Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL OH PA Favorable 37% 34% 43% Unfavorable 40 40 39 Hvn't hrd enough 21 25 17 REFUSED 2 1 1 9. Is your opinion of the - Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? FL OH PA Favorable 36% 35% 33% Unfavorable 50 49 53 Hvn't hrd enough 11 11 10 REFUSED 3 5 4 10. Is your opinion of the - Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? FL OH PA Favorable 40% 38% 42% Unfavorable 48 48 46 Hvn't hrd enough 8 10 9 REFUSED 3 4 3 11. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? FL OH PA Yes 15% 13% 13% No 81 83 82 DK/NA 4 3 6 12. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election next year; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? FL OH PA More 32% 26% 27% Less 23 22 26 About the same 44 51 46 DK/NA 1 1 1 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way (FL-Rick Scott/OH-John Kasich/PA-Tom Corbett) is handling his job as Governor? FL OH PA Approve 33% 38% 47% Disapprove 52 50 34 DK/NA 15 12 19 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? FL OH PA Approve 41% 41% 43% Disapprove 54 55 52 DK/NA 5 4 5 15. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? FL OH PA Yes/Deserves 44% 42% 47% No/Does not deserve 51 53 49 DK/NA 5 5 4 16. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? FL OH PA Very satisfied 3% 2% 1% Smwht satisfied 19 17 17 Smwht dissatisfied 27 32 34 Very dissatisfied 51 49 47 DK/NA - 1 1 17. (If Registered Republican) Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the Republican primary for President: the economy, health care, immigration issues, terrorism, the federal budget deficit, taxes, foreign policy, abortion or something else? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA The economy 53% 50% 43% Health care 10 8 9 Immigration issues 3 1 2 Terrorism 1 2 1 The deficit 18 23 25 Taxes 3 5 6 Foreign policy 2 3 1 Abortion 3 4 5 Something else 6 4 5 DK/NA 2 2 3 18. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling - the economy: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 4% 5% 4% Gingrich 31 31 30 Romney 29 24 22 Bachmann 3 4 4 Santorum 1 2 7 Paul 8 9 7 Huntsman 2 1 2 Cain 13 10 7 DK/NA 8 14 18 19. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling - foreign policy: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 1% 2% 1% Gingrich 58 51 47 Romney 15 11 12 Bachmann 4 3 3 Santorum 1 2 7 Paul 7 4 6 Huntsman 4 3 5 Cain 3 3 1 DK/NA 9 19 19 20. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling - immigration issues: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 10% 13% 9% Gingrich 34 27 29 Romney 13 11 10 Bachmann 7 9 7 Santorum 2 4 8 Paul 8 8 6 Huntsman 2 1 2 Cain 6 6 2 DK/NA 18 21 26 21. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as having - the knowledge and experience necessary to be a good president: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 1% 3% 2% Gingrich 55 54 49 Romney 22 20 18 Bachmann 2 3 3 Santorum 1 1 5 Paul 6 5 6 Huntsman 2 - 2 Cain 3 2 1 DK/NA 9 11 14 22. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as having - a strong moral character: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 7% 6% 4% Gingrich 13 13 9 Romney 35 30 26 Bachmann 12 15 8 Santorum 6 8 24 Paul 9 10 8 Huntsman 3 1 2 Cain 3 3 2 DK/NA 12 14 17 23. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as being - likable: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 5% 7% 5% Gingrich 19 19 14 Romney 30 29 33 Bachmann 7 9 8 Santorum 2 4 10 Paul 6 7 4 Huntsman 3 1 4 Cain 14 13 9 DK/NA 13 11 14 24. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as being - a strong leader: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 3% 6% 3% Gingrich 42 44 41 Romney 28 20 22 Bachmann 3 4 3 Santorum 1 2 7 Paul 6 4 4 Huntsman 1 - 1 Cain 7 8 3 DK/NA 9 12 15 25. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as being - able to defeat Barack Obama in the general election: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 1% 3% 3% Gingrich 40 39 34 Romney 37 30 32 Bachmann - 3 2 Santorum - 1 4 Paul 3 4 2 Huntsman - - 1 Cain 4 5 3 DK/NA 13 15 21 26. (If Registered Republican) When you decide who to vote for in the Republican primary for President, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate: knowledgeable and experienced, strong leader, strong moral character, likable, or ability to defeat Barack Obama? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Knowledge/Experience 32% 31% 37% Leader 29 28 25 Moral Character 18 23 18 Likable - - 1 Defeat Obama 21 16 15 DK/NA 1 1 3 27. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as - most likely to win the Republican nomination: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Perry 2% 2% 2% Gingrich 40 40 33 Romney 43 38 41 Bachmann 1 1 2 Santorum - - 3 Paul 2 3 3 Huntsman 1 - - Cain 2 1 1 DK/NA 10 14 15 28. (If Registered Republican) When the Republican Party nominates its Presidential candidate, which quality do you think should be more important, the candidate's ability to defeat Barack Obama or the candidate's views on the issues? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS FL OH PA Defeat Obama 31% 27% 23% Views 66 72 75 DK/NA 3 2 2 29. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if - Mitt Romney were to become the next president, how comfortable would you be with him as president; very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough about him to say? FL OH PA Very comfortable 15% 11% 10% Fairly comfortable 32 30 35 Not very comfortable 19 19 19 Not at all comfrtble 18 13 15 Hvn't hrd enough 14 26 19 DK/NA 2 1 2 30. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if - Newt Gingrich were to become the next president, how comfortable would you be with him as president; very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough about him to say? FL OH PA Very comfortable 19% 14% 15% Fairly comfortable 21 24 22 Not very comfortable 15 15 18 Not at all comfrtble 29 23 29 Hvn't hrd enough 14 23 15 DK/NA 1 1 1 31. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if - Barack Obama were to be reelected president, how comfortable would you be with him as president; very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough about him to say? FL OH PA Very comfortable 25% 22% 25% Fairly comfortable 25 26 25 Not very comfortable 12 15 16 Not at all comfrtble 37 35 32 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 1 DK/NA 1 1 1 32. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Mitt Romney? FL OH PA Obama 41% 39% 42% Romney 49 47 48 DK/NA 10 13 11 33. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Newt Gingrich? FL OH PA Obama 44% 41% 46% Gingrich 47 48 45 DK/NA 9 11 10 34. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently living in the United States? A) They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship. B) They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship. C) They should be required to leave the U.S. FL OH PA A) Stay/Citizenship 54% 46% 48% B) Stay/Not citizen 14 12 12 C) Not stay 27 36 34 DK/NA 5 5 5 35. Some people have suggested a change in the immigration law so that some illegal immigrants that have been in the United States for a long time could become legal residents but not eligible for citizenship. Do you think that is a good idea or a bad idea? FL OH PA Good idea 43% 39% 39% Bad idea 50 53 52 DK/NA 7 8 9 Additional info by state: Florida: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary Ohio: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary Pennsylvania: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary
