March 28, 2012 - Women Favor Obama In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Economy, Health Care Top Voter Concerns Word format Crosstabs and Trends by State FLORIDA: Obama 49 - Romney 42; Obama 50 - Santorum 37 OHIO: Obama 47 - Romney 41; Obama 47 - Santorum 40 PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 45 - Romney 42; Obama 48 - Santorum 41 In his best showing in this election cycle, President Barack Obama pulls away from former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in two critical swing states, while a third state remains too close to call, according to today's Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Women back the president over Romney or Santorum by 6 to 19 percentage points in the three states, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Most matchups among men are too close to call. Voters in these states are much more concerned with the economy and health care than they are with social issues and women's reproductive health. Matching Obama against either Romney or Santorum in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying at least two of them - shows: Florida: Obama tops Romney 49 - 42 percent; Obama beats Santorum 50 - 37 percent. Ohio: Obama over Romney 47 - 41 percent; Obama leads Santorum 47 - 40 percent. Pennsylvania: Obama edges Romney 45 - 42 percent; Obama tops Santorum 48 - 41 percent. "President Barack Obama is on a roll in the key swing states. If the election were today, he would carry at least two states. And if history repeats itself, that means he would be re- elected," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But the election is not today. It is seven months away. Two months ago President Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney were in a statistical tie in Ohio and Florida," Brown added. "The biggest reason for the president's improving prospects probably is the economy. Roughly six in 10 voters in all three states think the economy is recovering. Moreover, voters blame the oil companies and oil-producing countries for the rise in gasoline prices and only about one in six voters blame them on President Obama. "Although the lead Romney had over Obama in trial matchups late last year has disappeared, he remains the stronger of the two major GOP contenders. Voters in Pennsylvania still see Romney as better able than the president to fix the economy and both Romney and Obama are stronger than Sen. Rick Santorum on that measure in each state. "Despite the focus on social issues such as same-sex marriage and women's reproductive health, these issues are lower priorities for the voters." Voters blame oil companies and oil-producing nations more than Obama for gas prices. And about 60 percent in each state blame environmental regulations for increased prices. Florida Florida voters give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and say 50 - 47 percent he deserves to be reelected. Voters describe candidate positions on these issues as important in their vote: The economy - 90 percent "extremely important " or "very important;" Unemployment - 81 percent; The 2010 healthcare law - 78 percent; The federal budget deficit - 76 percent; The war in Afghanistan - 67 percent; Gas prices - 66 percent; Immigration - 55 percent; Women's reproductive health issues - 48 percent; Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage - 39 percent. The economy is in a recession, 68 percent of voters say, but 57 percent say it is beginning to recover. Romney would do a better job on the economy, 48 percent of voters say, while 45 percent pick the president, but Obama tops Santorum 50 - 39 percent on this issue. Oil companies are most to blame for gas prices, 32 percent of voters say, while 23 percent blame oil-producing countries most; 18 percent blame Obama and 16 percent blame supply and demand. Florida voters oppose 54 - 36 percent releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to curb rising gas prices. Florida voters disapprove 52 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing, continuing his year-long streak of negative ratings. "Although a solid majority of Florida voters see environmental regulations as a cause of higher gasoline prices, Sunshine State voters are slightly less likely than their brethren in Ohio and Pennsylvania to see things that way. They are also the least supportive of the idea of tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to combat higher gas prices," Brown said. Ohio Ohio voters also give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and split 48 - 48 percent on whether he deserves to be reelected. Voters describe candidate positions on these issues as important in their vote: The economy - 91 percent "extremely important " or "very important;" Unemployment - 82 percent; The 2010 healthcare law - 77 percent; The federal budget deficit - 75 percent; Gas prices - 67 percent; The war in Afghanistan - 66 percent; Women's reproductive health issues - 49 percent; Immigration - 47 percent; Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage - 43 percent. The economy is in a recession, 68 percent of voters say, but 58 percent say it is beginning to recover. Voters split 45 - 45 percent on whether Obama or Romney would do a better job on the economy, but Obama tops Santorum 48 - 41 percent on this issue. Oil companies are most to blame for gas prices, 39 percent of voters say, while 19 percent blame oil-producing countries most; 18 percent blame Obama and 14 percent blame supply and demand. Ohio voters oppose 49 - 44 percent releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Ohio voters split 42 - 42 percent in their approval of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing, his best score since he was elected more than a year ago. "After years as the poster children for the nation's economic woes, Ohio voters are becoming more optimistic about the economy, and this increasing optimism seems to be helping Gov. John Kasich whose job approval is even, but his best in his first year in office." Pennsylvania Pennsylvania voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job Obama is doing, still negative but his best score in recent surveys, and say 50 - 46 percent he does not deserve to be reelected. Voters describe candidate positions on these issues as important in their vote: The economy - 88 percent "extremely important " or "very important;" Unemployment - 79 percent; The 2010 healthcare law - 77 percent; The federal budget deficit - 74 percent; The war in Afghanistan - 66 percent; Gas prices - 66 percent; Women's reproductive health issues - 52 percent; Immigration - 46 percent; Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage - 45 percent. The economy is in a recession, 65 percent of voters say, but 57 percent say it is beginning to recover. Voters say 48 - 42 percent that Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama, but Obama tops Santorum 49 - 41 percent on this issue. Oil companies are most to blame for gas prices, 34 percent of voters say, while 25 percent blame oil-producing countries most; 17 percent blame Obama and 15 percent blame supply and demand. Pennsylvania voters oppose 55 - 39 percent releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to curb rising gas prices. Gov. Tom Corbett gets a 41 - 38 percent job approval rating. "Although he is a native son, Rick Santorum runs worse against Obama in Pennsylvania than does Mitt Romney," Brown said. "The former U.S. senator also is liked the least." From March 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed: 1,228 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,246 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,232 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and nationwide as a public service and for research. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xml or call (203) 582-5201. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs and Trends by State 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL OH PA Obama 50% 47% 48% Santorum 37 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 DK/NA 7 6 6 2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? FL OH PA Obama 49% 47% 45% Romney 42 41 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 3 DK/NA 5 7 7 3. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL OH PA Favorable 41% 36% 37% Unfavorable 36 43 38 Hvn't hrd enough 19 19 22 REFUSED 4 3 3 4. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL OH PA Favorable 28% 33% 37% Unfavorable 39 37 45 Hvn't hrd enough 30 27 15 REFUSED 2 3 3 5. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL OH PA Favorable 51% 49% 48% Unfavorable 44 46 46 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 3 REFUSED 3 2 2 6. Is your opinion of - the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? FL OH PA Favorable 39% 37% 41% Unfavorable 50 49 48 Hvn't hrd enough 8 10 8 REFUSED 3 4 2 7. Is your opinion of - the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? FL OH PA Favorable 45% 43% 45% Unfavorable 45 45 46 Hvn't hrd enough 6 8 8 REFUSED 4 4 2 8. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? FL OH PA More 35% 29% 28% Less 27 23 27 About the same 37 47 43 DK/NA 1 1 1 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Tom Corbett(PA) is handling his job as Governor? FL(RS) OH(JK) PA(TC) Approve 36% 42% 41% Disapprove 52 42 38 DK/NA 13 16 22 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? FL OH PA Approve 47% 47% 45% Disapprove 49 49 50 DK/NA 5 5 5 11. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? FL OH PA Yes/Deserves 50% 48% 46% No/Does not 47 48 50 DK/NA 3 4 4 12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? FL OH PA Very satisfied 4% 3% 3% Smwht satisfied 27 28 26 Smwht dissatisfied 26 28 29 Very dissatisfied 43 40 41 DK/NA 1 1 - 13. How important will the candidate's position on - unemployment be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important? FL OH PA Extremely important 39% 39% 35% Very important 42 43 44 Smwht important 15 15 18 Not important 3 2 4 DK/NA 1 1 - 14. How important will the candidate's position on - the economy be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important? FL OH PA Extremely important 51% 52% 52% Very important 39 39 36 Smwht important 7 8 11 Not important 2 1 1 DK/NA 1 - - 15. How important will the candidate's position on - social issues such as abortion and gay marriage be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important? FL OH PA Extremely important 18% 19% 22% Very important 21 24 23 Smwht important 29 31 30 Not important 31 25 25 DK/NA 1 2 1 16. How important will the candidate's position on - the federal budget deficit be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important? FL OH PA Extremely important 38% 41% 40% Very important 38 34 34 Smwht important 19 21 21 Not important 4 4 3 DK/NA 1 1 1 17. How important will the candidate's position on - the healthcare law passed in 2010 be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important? FL OH PA Extremely important 41% 41% 43% Very important 37 36 34 Smwht important 14 16 18 Not important 5 5 3 DK/NA 3 2 2 18. How important will the candidate's position on - immigration be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important? FL OH PA Extremely important 23% 16% 19% Very important 32 31 27 Smwht important 33 40 39 Not important 12 12 14 DK/NA 1 1 1 19. How important will the candidate's position on - women's reproductive health issues be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important? FL OH PA Extremely important 22% 22% 25% Very important 26 27 27 Smwht important 26 27 27 Not important 23 22 19 DK/NA 3 2 2 20. How important will the candidate's position on - gas prices be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important? FL OH PA Extremely important 36% 35% 34% Very important 30 32 32 Smwht important 20 20 23 Not important 13 12 11 DK/NA 1 1 1 21. How important will the candidate's position on - the war in Afghanistan be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important? FL OH PA Extremely important 26% 25% 25% Very important 41 41 41 Smwht important 25 27 28 Not important 6 7 6 DK/NA 2 1 1 22. Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now? FL OH PA Yes 68% 68% 65% No 28 29 30 DK/NA 4 3 5 23. Do you think the economy is beginning to recover or not? FL OH PA Yes 57% 58% 57% No 39 39 39 DK/NA 4 3 4 24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Mitt Romney? FL OH PA Obama 45% 45% 42% Romney 48 45 48 DK/NA 7 10 10 25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Rick Santorum? FL OH PA Obama 50% 48% 49% Santorum 39 41 41 DK/NA 11 11 10 26. Overall, who do you trust to do a better job on - issues especially important to women the Democrats or the Republicans? FL OH PA Democrats 58% 54% 58% Republicans 28 33 31 DK/NA 14 12 11 27. Who do you trust to do a better job on - women's reproductive health issues the Democrats or the Republicans? FL OH PA Democrats 57% 53% 55% Republicans 27 34 31 DK/NA 16 13 14 28. Who do you trust to do a better job on - birth control issues the Democrats or the Republicans? FL OH PA Democrats 56% 52% 52% Republicans 27 34 34 DK/NA 17 14 14 29. Who do you trust to do a better job on - abortion issues the Democrats or the Republicans? FL OH PA Democrats 53% 48% 50% Republicans 31 38 36 DK/NA 16 14 13 30. Who do you blame the most for the recent increase in gasoline prices; Oil producing countries, oil companies, President Obama, Americans who drive vehicles that use a lot of gasoline, or normal supply and demand pressures? FL OH PA Oil countries 23% 19% 25% Oil companies 32 39 34 Obama 18 18 17 American drivers 3 3 3 Supply/Demand 16 14 15 DK/NA 8 8 7 31. Please tell me whether you think environmental regulations deserve a great deal of blame, some blame, not much blame, or no blame at all for the recent increase in gas prices. FL OH PA Great deal blame 19% 19% 16% Some blame 39 41 44 Not much blame 11 17 15 No blame at all 25 19 22 DK/NA 5 4 3 32. To combat rising gasoline prices, some have urged President Obama to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The reserve is the government's oil stockpile, set aside for emergencies. Do you support or oppose releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? FL OH PA Support 36% 44% 39% Oppose 54 49 55 DK/NA 10 8 6 33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan? FL OH PA Approve 53% 52% 52% Disapprove 39 40 39 DK/NA 7 8 9 34. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? FL OH PA Right thing 26% 28% 27% Shld't be invl 66 65 64 DK/NA 8 7 9 35. From what you've read and heard, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough, or is he handling this about right? FL OH PA Too quickly 15% 15% 12% Not quick enough 31 34 34 About right 47 47 47 DK/NA 7 5 6 Additional info by state: Florida: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary Ohio: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary Pennsylvania: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary
