June 30, 2011 - Dead Heat In Virginia Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Split On Obama Job Approval, But Like Him Word format Virginia's U.S. Senate race of former governors is a dead heat with Democrat Tim Kaine at 43 percent and Republican George Allen at 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Equally close is the 2012 presidential race, with President Barack Obama at 43 percent and an unnamed Republican challenger at 41 percent. In what is expected to be a tightly fought Kaine-Allen Senate race, right up to the November 2012 finish, Kaine leads 85 - 5 percent among Democrats and Allen leads 83 - 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters, often the deciding factor, go to Allen 46 - 38 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men favor Allen 47 - 40 percent, while women back Kaine 45 - 37 percent. White voters back Allen 52 - 37 percent, as black voters back Kaine 69 - 11 percent. "Perhaps the only surprising thing about these numbers, given the expectation of a 'to the finish' tussle for the Senate, is that one in 10 Virginia voters remains undecided. Those are the folks who will decide the identity of Virginia's next U.S. senator," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Tim Kaine has a lock on Democrats and their core demographic groups, while Gov. George Allen is in the same shape on the other side of the aisle. "In these kinds of races, independent voters are the key." The re-election trifecta for President Obama is just about dead even in Virginia: He gets a 48 - 48 percent approval rating; Voters split 47 - 47 percent on whether Obama deserves re-election; He gets 43 percent to 41 percent for an unnamed GOP challenger. In the trial heat against an unnamed Republican, the president carries Democrats 92 - 3 percent, but loses Republicans 86 - 4 percent and independent voters 41 - 35 percent. Men go Republican 46 - 38 percent, but in a 10-point gender gap, women back Obama 48 - 36 percent. Like Gov. Bob McDonnell and virtually every other governor in the states where Quinnipiac University polls, voters are much higher on the president personally than they are about his policies. Three in four Virginians, 74 percent, say they like the president personally. Even Republicans agree, 56 - 28 percent. But when voters are asked if they liked most of the president's policies, that overwhelming margin drops to a split 47 - 48 percent. On that question Republicans say no 87 - 9 percent and independent voters turn thumbs down 54 - 39 percent, while Democrats say yes 90 - 5 percent. "President Barack Obama's great strength looking toward re-election in Virginia, as in many states, is that voters like him personally by an overwhelming margin. The Republicans must make this election about his policies if they are to prevail in 2012," said Brown. Asked about some of the president's policies, Virginia voters: Oppose 55 - 38 percent U.S. involvement in Afghanistan; Oppose 60 - 31 percent U.S. involvement in Libya; Say 49 - 42 percent that Congress should repeal the new health care law. From June 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,434 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were - Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Kaine 43% 8% 85% 38% 40% 45% 37% 69% Allen 42 83 5 46 47 37 52 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 2 2 DK/NA(VOL) 11 8 9 11 8 14 8 17 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Kaine 59% 39% 37% 38% 50% 20% 80% 48% 19% Allen 27 48 47 45 39 65 8 35 71 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 1 3 1 1 3 DK/NA(VOL) 10 9 12 12 9 9 9 14 7 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 57% 44% 77% 55% 52% 61% 55% 69% Disapprove 29 42 13 32 36 22 31 17 DK/NA 14 14 10 13 12 16 14 14 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Approve 58% 56% 59% 53% 62% 47% 68% 69% 40% Disapprove 24 33 28 32 25 37 19 20 45 DK/NA 18 11 13 15 13 16 13 12 15 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 50% 37% 67% 48% 51% 49% 48% 61% Disapprove 31 44 15 34 36 28 34 19 DK/NA 18 19 18 18 13 23 17 19 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Approve 56% 48% 49% 47% 54% 38% 62% 57% 38% Disapprove 21 35 35 34 28 43 22 25 44 DK/NA 23 17 16 19 17 19 16 18 18 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 48% 9% 92% 41% 42% 54% 36% 88% Disapprove 48 88 5 54 54 41 59 9 DK/NA 4 3 3 5 4 5 4 4 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Approve 61% 47% 43% 46% 52% 22% 80% 55% 23% Disapprove 37 49 53 51 43 75 17 41 73 DK/NA 2 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 3 9. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 43% 4% 92% 35% 38% 48% 31% 85% Republican 41 86 3 41 46 36 51 3 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 10 7 2 17 10 10 11 6 DK/NA 6 3 2 7 6 6 6 6 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Obama 56% 42% 37% 40% 48% 15% 83% 48% 17% Republican 30 45 45 43 37 65 8 34 68 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 8 11 10 11 13 5 12 10 DK/NA 5 4 7 7 5 6 4 6 4 10. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 47% 9% 91% 39% 41% 53% 35% 88% No/Does not 47 87 5 53 53 41 58 7 DK/NA 6 4 4 8 6 6 7 5 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Yes/Deserves 60% 45% 41% 44% 51% 19% 85% 53% 21% No/Does not 34 49 53 50 43 74 13 39 76 DK/NA 6 6 6 6 7 6 3 9 4 11. Regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama's policies, would you say you like or don't like Barack Obama as a person? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Like 74% 56% 94% 76% 73% 75% 71% 90% Don't Like 14 28 1 12 16 12 16 3 DK/NA 12 16 5 13 11 13 13 7 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Like 85% 76% 67% 73% 77% 63% 88% 83% 58% Don't Like 7 12 19 15 11 22 5 9 24 DK/NA 8 12 14 12 12 15 7 8 18 12. And regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Barack Obama's policies? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Like 47% 9% 90% 39% 41% 53% 36% 83% Don't Like 48 87 5 54 54 41 59 11 DK/NA 6 4 5 6 5 6 5 6 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Like 62% 46% 39% 44% 52% 19% 82% 53% 21% Don't Like 34 49 55 50 44 74 14 41 75 DK/NA 3 4 6 6 4 7 4 6 4 27. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 38% 54% 29% 34% 43% 33% 42% 28% Shld not be involved 55 42 64 57 52 59 53 63 DK/NA 7 4 7 9 5 8 6 8 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Right thing 32% 46% 33% 37% 40% 45% 28% 37% 45% Shld not be involved 60 49 59 57 52 50 67 55 49 DK/NA 8 4 7 6 7 4 6 8 6 Military HsHlds Right thing 42% Shld not be involved 50 DK/NA 8 28. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by using military force in Libya now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Libya now? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 31% 30% 38% 29% 35% 28% 31% 33% Shld not be involved 60 63 51 65 59 61 61 56 DK/NA 9 7 11 6 6 11 7 11 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Right thing 34% 32% 28% 31% 32% 31% 37% 33% 26% Shld not be involved 53 64 62 61 59 62 53 58 68 DK/NA 13 4 10 9 8 7 11 9 6 Military HsHlds Right thing 32% Shld not be involved 61 DK/NA 7 29. Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Repeal it 49% 81% 16% 53% 54% 44% 56% 25% Let it stand 42 9 76 39 39 44 36 65 DK/NA 9 10 9 8 6 12 8 10 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE WtBnAgn POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Evglcl Lib Mod Con Repeal it 41% 55% 50% 52% 44% 70% 19% 43% 73% Let it stand 52 38 39 37 49 21 75 48 17 DK/NA 8 7 11 10 7 9 6 9 10
