June 6, 2012 - Cuccinelli Has 3-1 Lead In 2013 Virginia GOP Gov Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dead Heat In U.S. Senate Race Word format Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli holds a commanding 51 - 15 percent lead over Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling in the 2013 Republican primary for governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, two former governors, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen, are locked in a year-long, too-close-to-call race with 44 percent for Kaine and 43 percent for Allen. Gov. Bob McDonnell gets a 53 - 30 percent job approval rating, matching his all-time low of 53 - 32 percent in a March 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The race for governor in 2013 on the Republican side is shaping up as a battle between the lieutenant governor and attorney general with no other Republican appearing likely to enter the race. At this point Cuccinelli holds huge leads among all GOP demographic groups. He leads among GOP men 55 - 20 percent, women 46 - 9 percent, 54 - 15 percent among conservatives and 45 - 15 percent among moderates, 51 - 15 percent among white evangelical Christians and 67 - 8 percent among those who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement. "While the ratio of job approval/disapproval among all voters is similar for Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, Republicans give the attorney general much higher ratings," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It is early in the campaign, but at this point, Cuccinelli holds a very, very strong position in the race for governor." Among all voters Bolling has a 36 - 21 percent job approval rating compared to Cuccinelli's 46 - 29 percent. But when just Republicans are surveyed, Bolling's 48 - 12 percent trails Cuccinelli's 70 - 9 percent. Since Quinnipiac University began polling Virginia's U.S. Senate race Kaine and Allen have been in a dead heat with neither ever holding a lead larger than the poll's margin of error. "The Senate race looks like it will go down to the wire on Election Day," said Brown. "With 10 percent of voters undecided, each man has the opportunity to win the seat." Kaine wins Democrats 85 - 7 percent, while Allen takes Republicans 85 - 5 percent. Independent voters go to the Republican 43 - 37 percent. Allen leads 47 - 42 percent among men while Kaine leads 45 - 39 percent among women. On the gay marriage issue, voters for the most part do not know where the two candidates stand. Allen opposes gay marriage, 24 percent say, while 1 percent says he supports it and the rest do not know his position. On Kaine 15 percent think he supports gay marriage, while 4 percent believe he opposes it and the rest don't know. "The Senate race is so close that whatever small margin of victory occurs could well be based on whether President Barack Obama or Gov. Mitt Romney has coattails," said Brown. Although Gov. McDonnell's job approval rating is among the lowest during his term, his scores are still much better than many of his gubernatorial colleagues around the country, at least in part because the Old Dominion's economy ranks among the nation's best. He gets a thumbs up 82 - 7 percent from Republicans and 48 - 33 percent among independent voters, while losing Democrats 48 - 33 percent. Men approve 59 - 27 percent as women approve 48 - 33 percent. "Although Gov. McDonnell's numbers have come down from their highs in the 60s, he still ranks among the nation's more popular governors," Brown said. The most popular politician in the state remains U.S. Sen. Mark Warner with a 60 - 21 percent approval rating, while retiring U.S. Sen. Jim Webb scores a 48 - 26 percent approval. From May 30 - June 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,282 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 549 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the 2013 Republican primary for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli, for whom would you vote? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS............................. TEA PARTY WhtBrnAgnEv Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Bolling 15% 20% 9% 15% 15% 8% 18% 15% 15% Cuccinelli 51 55 46 54 45 67 46 51 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 3 - 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - - 2 - 1 - - DK/NA 31 23 41 29 35 25 32 31 33 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YEARS..... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-49 50-64 65+ Bolling 15% 14% 15% 16% 12% 17% 12% 15% 19% Cuccinelli 53 50 41 54 57 50 45 55 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 - 5 1 4 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 29 33 42 27 26 30 38 29 23 9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were George Allen the Republican and Tim Kaine the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Allen 43% 85% 7% 43% 47% 39% 51% 16% Kaine 44 5 85 37 42 45 38 71 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 3 1 1 1 DK/NA 10 8 7 13 6 14 8 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Allen 40% 44% 39% 45% 46% 43% 35% 45% 45% Kaine 49 40 45 40 47 48 48 44 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 1 1 DK/NA 8 12 13 11 4 6 13 8 10 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were George Allen the Republican and Tim Kaine the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Jun 06 Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 Sep 15 Jun 30 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Allen 43 44 44 44 44 45 42 Kaine 44 47 45 42 45 44 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 DK/NA(VOL) 10 8 9 12 9 9 11 10. Is your opinion of George Allen favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 41% 77% 12% 40% 45% 37% 49% 19% Unfavorable 27 5 50 29 28 27 28 35 Hvn't hrd enough 31 17 37 30 26 35 22 44 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 38% 43% 38% 40% 43% 40% 29% 44% 46% Unfavorable 38 22 18 29 29 34 20 30 30 Hvn't hrd enough 23 35 44 28 27 25 50 25 23 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of George Allen favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jun 06 Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 Favorable 41 41 42 41 45 Unfavorable 27 26 29 27 28 Hvn't hrd enough 31 32 27 30 26 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 11. Is your opinion of Tim Kaine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 44% 17% 75% 39% 46% 43% 42% 64% Unfavorable 28 55 5 30 33 24 35 8 Hvn't hrd enough 26 26 19 29 20 31 22 26 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 53% 39% 38% 41% 48% 52% 44% 46% 42% Unfavorable 29 28 21 30 31 30 17 31 33 Hvn't hrd enough 17 31 38 27 19 17 39 21 23 REFUSED 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Tim Kaine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jun 06 Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 Favorable 44 48 46 42 47 Unfavorable 28 29 29 27 29 Hvn't hrd enough 26 23 25 28 23 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 53% 82% 33% 48% 59% 48% 60% 39% Disapprove 30 7 48 33 27 33 26 40 DK/NA 17 12 19 18 14 20 14 20 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 53% 54% 47% 53% 56% 57% 41% 57% 57% Disapprove 34 28 30 28 36 30 34 29 28 DK/NA 14 19 24 19 8 13 25 14 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as Governor? Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Dec 22 Oct 12 Sep 14 Jun 29 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 53 53 58 57 62 61 55 Disapprove 30 32 24 21 22 21 26 DK/NA 17 14 18 22 16 18 19 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 41% 60% 29% 34% 48% 34% 43% 37% Disapprove 44 24 55 52 41 47 43 45 DK/NA 16 16 16 14 12 19 14 18 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 40% 41% 44% 37% 42% 44% 42% 45% 36% Disapprove 48 42 41 47 46 47 44 43 45 DK/NA 12 17 15 16 11 9 14 12 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Dec 22 Oct 12 Sep 14 Jun 29 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 41 38 47 46 47 48 48 Disapprove 44 47 37 36 35 34 33 DK/NA 16 15 17 18 18 18 19 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 60% 43% 79% 55% 59% 61% 59% 73% Disapprove 21 34 7 26 25 18 24 9 DK/NA 19 23 14 19 16 21 17 18 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 62% 60% 61% 55% 62% 65% 59% 62% 60% Disapprove 23 20 17 23 24 20 17 20 25 DK/NA 16 20 22 23 14 16 25 18 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator? Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Dec 22 Oct 12 Sep 14 Jun 30 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 60 62 64 62 61 64 57 Disapprove 21 23 22 23 24 22 29 DK/NA 19 16 14 16 15 13 14 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 48% 31% 66% 49% 52% 45% 48% 54% Disapprove 26 40 9 29 29 24 29 17 DK/NA 25 28 25 22 20 30 24 29 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 55% 44% 51% 41% 51% 55% 54% 50% 44% Disapprove 28 26 21 32 28 27 23 26 30 DK/NA 17 30 28 26 22 18 24 24 27 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator? Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Dec 22 Oct 12 Sep 14 Jun 30 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 48 49 52 48 51 51 50 Disapprove 26 28 26 29 27 30 31 DK/NA 25 23 22 23 22 19 18 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 36% 48% 27% 35% 41% 31% 35% 34% Disapprove 21 12 28 21 22 19 20 26 DK/NA 44 40 45 44 37 49 45 40 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 31% 38% 38% 35% 34% 38% 45% 34% 33% Disapprove 24 19 21 21 25 21 21 21 20 DK/NA 45 43 41 44 41 41 34 45 47 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Dec 22 Oct 12 Sep 14 Jun 29 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 36 36 38 35 35 39 39 Disapprove 21 21 19 18 17 15 20 DK/NA 44 43 43 46 48 45 42 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 46% 70% 28% 40% 53% 39% 48% 44% Disapprove 29 9 45 34 29 30 30 31 DK/NA 25 21 27 26 19 30 22 25 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 42% 48% 45% 48% 51% 43% 42% 46% 48% Disapprove 39 24 23 30 32 35 27 31 29 DK/NA 19 28 32 22 17 22 31 22 23 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Dec 22 Oct 12 Sep 14 Jun 29 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 46 45 46 47 46 47 49 Disapprove 29 32 31 27 30 29 31 DK/NA 25 23 23 26 24 24 20 30. Do you happen to know whether George Allen supports or opposes same-sex marriage? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Supports 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Opposes 24 27 26 23 29 20 29 15 Don't know 74 71 73 76 69 79 70 82 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Supports 1% 1% 1% 1% - 2% 1% 1% 1% Opposes 34 18 16 21 27 34 18 29 24 Don't know 65 80 83 78 71 64 80 70 74 REFUSED 1 1 - - 2 - 1 - 1 31. Do you happen to know whether Tim Kaine supports or opposes same-sex marriage? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Supports 15% 18% 15% 14% 19% 11% 17% 8% Opposes 4 4 5 4 4 5 4 6 Don't know 80 78 80 80 77 83 78 84 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 18-34 35-54 55+ Supports 20% 12% 11% 12% 15% 20% 14% 16% 14% Opposes 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 Don't know 75 83 84 82 79 75 81 79 81 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 2 - 1 - 2 Demographic Summary
