November 14, 2012 - Sen. Warner Has Big Early Lead In Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Economy Will Get Better With Obama Word format Watch Video: Assistant Director Tim Malloy discusses poll results Clip Information and Download: FLV File - For Website (1920x1080 / 52.1MB) Original .MP4 File - For Broadcast (1920x1080 / 338.7MB) If U.S. Sen. Mark Warner wants to be governor of Virginia again in 2013, he would begin the campaign as the overwhelming favorite, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. If Warner does not want another four years in the Executive Mansion in Richmond, Terry McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee Chair, and Republicans Bill Bolling, the lieutenant governor, and Ken Cuccinelli, the state attorney general, start off basically even. Warner, who says he will decide whether to run for governor or remain in the U.S. Senate by Thanksgiving, tops Lt. Gov. Bolling 53 - 33 percent and beats Attorney General Cuccinelli 52 - 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. If McAuliffe is the Democratic candidate, he would get 38 percent to 36 percent for Bolling, and 41 percent to 37 percent for Cuccinelli. "If Sen. Mark Warner decides to run, he begins the campaign as the prohibitive favorite," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "He is much better known and much better liked than either of the Republican aspirants and his job approval rating - 60 percent - is the highest of any statewide elected official. "Terry McAuliffe is another story, however. He is not well known and his rating among those who have an opinion of him it is not all that impressive. Bolling also is not well known, although he is slightly better liked at this point than is McAuliffe. Cuccinelli is somewhat better known than Bolling and McAuliffe. At this point McAuliffe is benefitting from his Democratic identification, which reflects the party's positive image in the state after President Barack Obama's victory and the president's 52 percent job approval." "Virginia voters say 35 - 18 percent that they would prefer Warner stay in the U.S. Senate, rather than run for governor. Another 30 percent, mostly Republicans, want him to do neither," Brown added. Asked whether they have a positive or negative view of the potential candidates for governor, Warner gets a 58 - 20 percent favorable verdict: McAuliffe gets a 17 - 13 percent favorability with 68 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion; Cuccinelli is at 29 - 24 percent, with 45 percent who don't know enough about him; Bolling gets a 20 - 8 percent score, with 70 percent who don't know enough about him. Among Republicans, Cuccinelli has a 59 - 5 percent favorability rating, while Bolling is at 44 - 2 percent favorable. Virginia registered voters say 58 - 39 percent they are optimistic about the next four years with Obama as president. By the end of the president's second term, they expect 51 - 31 percent that the economy will be better than it is now. Voters say 58 - 37 percent that Obama and congressional Democrats are more likely to make a "good faith" effort to work with congressional Republicans on issues important to voters. They split 46 - 47 percent on whether congressional Republicans will make a "good faith" effort. From November 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,469 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Bill Bolling the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McAuliffe 38% 2% 79% 28% 36% 39% 29% 68% Bolling 36 83 3 33 42 30 46 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 1 DK/NA 24 14 18 36 19 29 23 21 WHITE................................................ COLLEGE DEG MARRIED... SINGLE.... BornAgain Yes No Men Wom Men Wom Evangelical McAuliffe 40% 23% 28% 26% 27% 38% 14% Bolling 37 51 53 47 47 32 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 - 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 3 1 1 DK/NA 21 24 17 27 22 28 23 COLLEGE DEG POL PHIL......... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No Lib Mod Con 18-34 35-54 55+ McAuliffe 47% 33% 72% 46% 11% 38% 41% 35% Bolling 31 39 5 24 67 28 38 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 - 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 - 2 1 1 DK/NA 21 26 20 28 20 31 19 22 2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McAuliffe 41% 2% 82% 33% 39% 42% 33% 66% Cuccinelli 37 84 2 34 44 31 48 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 21 13 16 30 16 25 18 25 WHITE................................................ COLLEGE DEG MARRIED... SINGLE.... BornAgain Yes No Men Wom Men Wom Evangelical McAuliffe 46% 25% 31% 29% 29% 42% 16% Cuccinelli 37 54 56 51 49 31 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 16 20 12 20 21 25 20 COLLEGE DEG POL PHIL......... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No Lib Mod Con 18-34 35-54 55+ McAuliffe 52% 34% 75% 48% 13% 42% 42% 39% Cuccinelli 31 41 5 27 69 30 41 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 1 DK/NA 15 24 18 24 17 27 17 20 3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Warner the Democrat and Bill Bolling the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Warner 53% 12% 90% 51% 49% 56% 43% 85% Bolling 33 80 2 25 39 27 43 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 14 8 8 22 10 16 13 9 WHITE................................................ COLLEGE DEG MARRIED... SINGLE.... BornAgain Yes No Men Wom Men Wom Evangelical Warner 56% 35% 40% 42% 41% 50% 26% Bolling 33 49 50 44 44 30 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - - 1 1 DK/NA 10 15 9 14 14 19 14 COLLEGE DEG POL PHIL......... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No Lib Mod Con 18-34 35-54 55+ Warner 63% 47% 82% 65% 23% 55% 56% 49% Bolling 27 36 7 19 65 23 35 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 1 1 - DK/NA 9 16 11 15 11 20 8 12 4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Warner the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Warner 52% 8% 91% 49% 48% 54% 42% 84% Cuccinelli 34 81 1 27 40 29 44 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 14 10 7 21 10 16 13 10 WHITE................................................ COLLEGE DEG MARRIED... SINGLE.... BornAgain Yes No Men Wom Men Wom Evangelical Warner 55% 34% 39% 40% 39% 51% 26% Cuccinelli 35 49 49 45 45 31 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 - 1 DK/NA 9 15 9 15 14 17 17 COLLEGE DEG POL PHIL......... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No Lib Mod Con 18-34 35-54 55+ Warner 63% 45% 86% 62% 21% 53% 54% 49% Cuccinelli 28 37 4 23 64 26 37 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 1 - - DK/NA 8 17 8 15 13 20 8 13 5. Is your opinion of - Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 17% 5% 30% 15% 20% 16% 16% 23% Unfavorable 13 25 4 13 18 9 17 3 Hvn't hrd enough 68 69 65 71 61 74 67 71 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 6. Is your opinion of - Mark Warner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 58% 32% 79% 59% 57% 58% 54% 71% Unfavorable 20 42 3 17 24 16 25 5 Hvn't hrd enough 20 21 16 23 17 22 19 22 REFUSED 2 5 1 1 1 3 2 2 7. Is your opinion of - Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 29% 59% 5% 28% 35% 25% 35% 12% Unfavorable 24 5 41 23 26 22 24 23 Hvn't hrd enough 45 34 51 48 38 51 40 61 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 5 8. Is your opinion of - Bill Bolling favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 20% 44% 4% 17% 24% 17% 26% 5% Unfavorable 8 2 12 9 9 7 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 70 54 81 74 65 75 66 84 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 4 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 60% 35% 82% 60% 61% 59% 55% 76% Disapprove 25 47 6 23 29 20 30 9 DK/NA 16 18 12 17 10 20 15 15 AREA........................ East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Approve 63% 64% 55% 60% Disapprove 21 18 28 29 DK/NA 16 18 16 10 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 64% Sep 2011, **Low also 57% Jun 2011) APPROVE....... High Low Nov 14 Jul 18 Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Feb 09 Jul 18 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012* 2012** Approve 60 57 60 62 64 64 57 Disapprove 25 24 21 23 22 22 24 DK/NA 16 19 19 16 14 14 19 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 44% 25% 59% 49% 45% 44% 43% 48% Disapprove 28 45 15 24 32 24 32 20 DK/NA 28 31 26 27 23 32 25 32 AREA........................ East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Approve 53% 44% 42% 39% Disapprove 20 29 32 29 DK/NA 28 27 26 32 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 14 Jul 18 Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Feb 09 Jul 18 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 Approve 44 43 48 49 52 52 43 Disapprove 28 30 26 28 26 26 30 DK/NA 28 26 25 23 22 22 26 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 52% 5% 94% 50% 47% 56% 40% 88% Disapprove 44 93 3 45 50 38 56 6 DK/NA 4 2 3 5 2 5 4 6 WHITE................................................ COLLEGE DEG MARRIED... SINGLE.... BornAgain Yes No Men Wom Men Wom Evangelical Approve 54% 32% 34% 37% 42% 53% 23% Disapprove 44 63 63 59 57 42 74 DK/NA 2 5 3 4 2 5 3 COLLEGE DEG POL PHIL......... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No Lib Mod Con 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 62% 47% 93% 61% 18% 56% 55% 48% Disapprove 36 48 6 34 77 38 42 50 DK/NA 2 5 1 5 4 6 3 2 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 14 Jul 19 Jun 07 Mar 20 Feb 08 Nov 14 Sep 15 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 Approve 52 45 48 49 46 52 40 Disapprove 44 51 47 47 49 44 54 DK/NA 4 4 5 4 5 4 6 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 38% 55% 27% 35% 42% 33% 40% 32% Disapprove 15 7 22 14 16 13 15 16 DK/NA 47 37 52 51 41 53 45 52 AREA........................ East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Approve 28% 35% 44% 42% Disapprove 13 16 16 13 DK/NA 58 48 40 45 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? (*High also 39% Jun 2011, **Low also 35% Oct 2011) APPROVE....... High Low Nov 14 Jul 18 Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Sep 14 Dec 22 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011* 2011** Approve 38 36 36 36 38 39 35 Disapprove 15 19 21 21 19 15 18 DK/NA 47 45 44 43 43 45 46 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 43% 69% 23% 42% 48% 39% 47% 34% Disapprove 29 7 46 30 30 27 28 32 DK/NA 28 25 31 28 22 34 25 34 AREA........................ East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Approve 33% 44% 49% 46% Disapprove 37 22 28 26 DK/NA 30 34 24 28 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 14 Jul 18 Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Jun 29 Nov 14 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012 Approve 43 44 46 45 46 49 43 Disapprove 29 31 29 32 31 31 29 DK/NA 28 25 25 23 23 20 28 18. Are you generally optimistic or pessimistic about the next four years with Barack Obama as president? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Optimistic 58% 14% 95% 56% 51% 64% 47% 92% Pessimistic 39 84 3 39 46 33 50 5 DK/NA 3 2 2 5 3 3 2 3 WHITE................................................ COLLEGE DEG MARRIED... SINGLE.... BornAgain Yes No Men Wom Men Wom Evangelical Optimistic 57% 41% 39% 44% 50% 62% 28% Pessimistic 42 55 58 53 49 35 68 DK/NA 1 4 3 3 1 2 4 COLLEGE DEG POL PHIL......... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No Lib Mod Con 18-34 35-54 55+ Optimistic 64% 54% 94% 67% 26% 64% 62% 51% Pessimistic 35 41 4 29 72 33 35 47 DK/NA 1 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 19. By the end of Barack Obama's second term in office, do you expect the economy to be better than it is today, worse than it is today, or about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 51% 8% 87% 50% 48% 54% 40% 87% Worse 31 70 1 30 36 27 40 2 About the same 16 21 10 20 15 17 18 10 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 - WHITE................................................ COLLEGE DEG MARRIED... SINGLE.... BornAgain Yes No Men Wom Men Wom Evangelical Better 53% 32% 36% 36% 42% 52% 24% Worse 29 48 41 45 45 28 57 About the same 18 19 22 17 13 18 17 DK/NA 1 1 - 2 - 2 1 COLLEGE DEG POL PHIL......... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No Lib Mod Con 18-34 35-54 55+ Better 59% 47% 89% 61% 18% 54% 54% 46% Worse 24 35 4 21 60 28 29 36 About the same 16 17 7 17 21 16 17 16 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 2 20. Do you think - the Republicans in Congress will or will not make a good faith effort to cooperate with President Obama and the Democrats on issues that are important to you? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Will make effort 46% 65% 30% 44% 46% 46% 47% 41% Will not make effort 47 28 64 48 48 45 45 54 DK/NA 7 7 7 8 6 9 8 5 WHITE................................................ COLLEGE DEG MARRIED... SINGLE.... BornAgain Yes No Men Wom Men Wom Evangelical Will make effort 40% 52% 47% 49% 46% 44% 58% Will not make effort 52 40 47 41 47 43 34 DK/NA 8 8 5 10 6 13 8 COLLEGE DEG POL PHIL......... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No Lib Mod Con 18-34 35-54 55+ Will make effort 39% 50% 30% 42% 60% 42% 45% 49% Will not make effort 53 43 63 51 34 53 51 40 DK/NA 8 7 7 8 7 5 4 11 21. Do you think - President Obama and the Democrats in Congress will or will not, make a good faith effort to cooperate with the Republicans on issues that are important to you? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Will make effort 58% 21% 93% 54% 52% 64% 48% 92% Will not make effort 37 75 4 40 44 31 48 6 DK/NA 4 4 3 6 4 5 5 2 WHITE................................................ COLLEGE DEG MARRIED... SINGLE.... BornAgain Yes No Men Wom Men Wom Evangelical Will make effort 60% 41% 38% 48% 53% 59% 31% Will not make effort 38 54 59 47 41 35 65 DK/NA 3 6 2 5 6 6 4 COLLEGE DEG POL PHIL......... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No Lib Mod Con 18-34 35-54 55+ Will make effort 65% 55% 92% 67% 29% 64% 62% 51% Will not make effort 32 41 6 28 68 32 34 45 DK/NA 3 5 2 5 4 4 4 4 23. Which would you prefer, that Mark Warner run for governor in 2013 or that he run for reelection to the US Senate in 2014 or that he does neither of these things? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Governor 2013 18% 5% 27% 19% 15% 21% 15% 28% US Senate 2014 35 23 44 38 38 33 33 38 Neither 30 56 12 25 34 27 36 15 DK/NA 17 16 17 18 14 20 16 19 AREA........................ East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Governor 2013 18% 18% 18% 16% US Senate 2014 41 35 30 36 Neither 25 25 34 35 DK/NA 17 21 17 13 Demographic Summary
