February 20, 2013 - Two-Way Virginia Governor's Race Deadlocked, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Three Way Is McAuliffe - 34, Cuccinelli - 31, Bolling - 13 Word format PDF format Watch Video: Assistant Director Tim Malloy discusses poll results FLV File - For Website Original .MP4 File - For Broadcast Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli are in a 38 - 38 percent dead heat in their race to become Virginia's next governor. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, running as an independent candidate, leaves the race a statistical tie, with McAuliffe at 34 percent, Cuccinelli at 31 percent and Bolling at 13 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Bolling, elected as a Republican, said he will make a major announcement next month, presumably about the governor's race. Today's 38 - 38 percent horse race is almost identical to the findings from a January 9 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing 40 percent for McAuliffe and 39 percent for Cuccinelli. In a three-way race measured January 9, McAuliffe and Cuccinelli had 34 percent each, with 13 percent for Bolling. "Although the folks in Richmond are paying close attention to the political maneuvering around the governor's race, most Virginians have not yet begun focusing on it," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "When asked about the candidates, most voters don't know enough about Terry McAuliffe or Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to have an opinion and barely half know enough about Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli to form an opinion. This despite the fact that Bolling and Cuccinelli have been elected to statewide office and McAuliffe ran for governor four years ago." Cuccinelli has a 30 - 25 percent favorability rating. McAuliffe gets a 23 - 16 percent score, with 60 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Bolling has an 18 - 10 percent favorability, with 72 percent who don't know enough about him. Virginia voters give Bolling a 36 - 18 percent job approval, while Cuccinelli gets a 41 - 32 percent approval rating. "Bolling probably has the greatest growth potential of the candidates but he also has the farthest to go to become a major contender. At this point - although it certainly could change - the data indicates that Bolling's GOP critics who say he can't win as an independent but might tilt the result to McAuliffe could be on to something," said Brown. In a two-way race, McAuliffe wins Democrats 83 - 4 percent. Cuccinelli takes Republicans 87 - 2 percent. Independent voters go 33 percent for Cuccinelli and 29 percent for McAuliffe. Women go to the Democrat 42 - 33 percent, while men go Republican 44 - 34 percent. Cuccinelli wins white voters 47 - 31 percent, while black voters go to McAuliffe 64 - 11 percent. In a three-way race, Bolling gets 10 percent of Republicans, but just 5 percent of Democrats. Interestingly, voters are split evenly, 44 - 43 percent, on whether Cuccinelli should resign as attorney general while he runs for governor. These same voters say 48 - 36 percent that Bolling should remain lieutenant governor if he runs for governor. The difference between the public view of the two men stems from Democrats saying Bolling should remain in office even if he runs by 42 - 39 percent, but think Cuccinelli should resign by 55 - 30 percent. As he enters the fourth year of his term, Gov. Bob McDonnell remains popular with voters. He has a 53 - 28 percent job approval with voters, including 77 - 11 percent among Republicans and 55 - 22 percent among independent voters. Even his 47 - 32 percent disapproval among Democrats is better than many governors in the view of the opposition party. Virginia lawmakers, however, do not fare as well with voters. The State Legislature gets a 46 - 38 disapproval compared to a 43 - 39 percent approval in early January before the legislative session was in full swing. From February 14 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,112 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McAuliffe 38% 2% 83% 29% 34% 42% 31% 64% Cuccinelli 38 87 4 33 44 33 47 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 21 8 11 34 19 22 20 21 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No McAuliffe 40% 25% 24% 30% 27% 34% 16% 34% Cuccinelli 45 48 51 54 54 41 63 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 - 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 13 24 23 15 16 23 21 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ McAuliffe 46% 34% 39% 42% 36% 37% 38% 40% Cuccinelli 37 39 30 42 48 32 45 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 - 1 3 2 1 DK/NA 14 24 27 14 15 28 14 20 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2012 McAuliffe 38 40 41 Cuccinelli 38 39 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 DK/NA 21 18 21 2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat, Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, and Bill Bolling running as an independent, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McAuliffe 34% 1% 78% 21% 30% 37% 26% 65% Cuccinelli 31 75 2 25 37 25 37 8 Bolling 13 10 5 21 13 13 15 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 21 13 15 31 18 23 20 19 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No McAuliffe 34% 21% 21% 24% 23% 29% 15% 27% Cuccinelli 37 38 43 43 44 32 50 37 Bolling 14 17 14 18 17 14 14 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 - - - DK/NA 16 23 22 15 15 25 20 20 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ McAuliffe 40% 31% 37% 36% 32% 33% 34% 36% Cuccinelli 30 31 24 34 39 27 33 31 Bolling 13 14 13 15 13 13 15 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - - 1 1 1 DK/NA 16 24 25 15 15 25 17 20 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat, Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, and Bill Bolling running as an independent, for whom would you vote? Feb 20 Jan 09 2013 2013 McAuliffe 34 34 Cuccinelli 31 34 Bolling 13 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 21 18 3. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 23% 6% 43% 18% 24% 22% 20% 34% Unfavorable 16 28 1 19 20 13 20 1 Hvn't hrd enough 60 64 56 61 56 64 59 64 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 26% 17% 14% 24% 21% 20% 10% 22% Unfavorable 24 18 22 21 24 17 26 19 Hvn't hrd enough 49 65 64 55 54 62 64 59 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 - - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 31% 18% 18% 29% 25% 21% 23% 23% Unfavorable 21 13 8 20 23 8 18 19 Hvn't hrd enough 48 68 74 51 51 69 59 57 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 23 23 17 Unfavorable 16 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 60 61 68 REFUSED 1 1 1 4. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 30% 61% 6% 27% 32% 28% 36% 8% Unfavorable 25 4 45 25 24 27 24 32 Hvn't hrd enough 44 35 48 46 44 44 39 59 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 37% 35% 41% 43% 38% 34% 46% 37% Unfavorable 37 15 18 27 24 24 10 28 Hvn't hrd enough 25 49 40 29 37 41 43 34 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 32% 28% 21% 34% 40% 19% 35% 31% Unfavorable 40 17 21 29 26 21 22 31 Hvn't hrd enough 28 54 58 36 33 58 42 37 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 30 33 29 Unfavorable 25 25 24 Hvn't hrd enough 44 41 45 REFUSED 1 2 2 5. Is your opinion of Bill Bolling favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 18% 23% 10% 23% 21% 16% 21% 12% Unfavorable 10 10 11 7 11 8 9 9 Hvn't hrd enough 72 65 80 69 68 75 69 80 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 - 1 1 - WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 25% 18% 24% 19% 25% 17% 28% 19% Unfavorable 11 8 9 11 10 8 9 9 Hvn't hrd enough 64 72 66 68 64 73 61 71 REFUSED - 1 1 2 - 1 2 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 21% 17% 15% 21% 21% 10% 19% 22% Unfavorable 10 9 7 9 10 7 9 12 Hvn't hrd enough 69 73 77 70 68 83 71 65 REFUSED - 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Bill Bolling favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 18 18 20 Unfavorable 10 9 8 Hvn't hrd enough 72 72 70 REFUSED 1 1 1 6. Is your opinion of Bob McDonnell favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 41% 59% 21% 45% 47% 35% 45% 23% Unfavorable 24 7 40 21 20 27 22 32 Hvn't hrd enough 33 31 36 32 31 35 30 43 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 47% 44% 51% 48% 52% 39% 56% 47% Unfavorable 29 18 18 15 18 26 12 21 Hvn't hrd enough 21 37 29 34 28 33 30 30 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 44% 38% 28% 49% 53% 31% 43% 44% Unfavorable 32 19 23 28 21 23 21 28 Hvn't hrd enough 22 40 47 22 24 46 34 25 REFUSED 3 3 2 1 3 1 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Bob McDonnell favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 15 Jun 07 2013 2013 2012 2012 Favorable 41 45 42 39 Unfavorable 24 23 22 25 Hvn't hrd enough 33 30 34 35 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 53% 77% 32% 55% 56% 50% 57% 37% Disapprove 28 11 47 22 26 29 26 42 DK/NA 19 11 21 23 18 21 17 21 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 56% 57% 63% 70% 62% 53% 69% 60% Disapprove 31 22 22 21 25 26 19 23 DK/NA 12 20 15 9 14 20 12 17 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 53% 52% 45% 55% 61% 47% 55% 53% Disapprove 34 24 27 30 29 25 27 32 DK/NA 13 24 28 15 10 28 18 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as Governor? (*Low also 53% Mar 2012, Jun 2012, Nov 2012) APPROVE....... High Low Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 15 Jul 18 Jun 06 Oct 12 Feb 20 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011 2013* Approve 53 54 53 55 53 62 53 Disapprove 28 27 26 29 30 22 28 DK/NA 19 19 20 17 17 16 19 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 38% 59% 28% 36% 43% 34% 40% 34% Disapprove 46 25 58 47 43 48 43 57 DK/NA 16 16 14 18 13 18 17 10 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 44% 38% 42% 56% 45% 36% 44% 42% Disapprove 44 42 40 35 40 45 36 44 DK/NA 12 20 17 9 14 19 20 14 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 40% 37% 36% 39% 46% 40% 46% 32% Disapprove 48 45 47 49 41 42 42 52 DK/NA 12 18 18 12 13 17 12 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*High also 48% Jun 2011, **Low also 38% Mar 2012) APPROVE....... High Low Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 15 Jul 18 Jun 06 Sep 14 Feb 20 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011* 2013** Approve 38 43 44 41 41 48 38 Disapprove 46 39 35 41 44 34 46 DK/NA 16 19 21 18 16 18 16 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 36% 45% 32% 34% 42% 32% 37% 39% Disapprove 18 17 19 16 18 18 18 21 DK/NA 45 38 49 50 40 50 45 39 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 40% 35% 40% 41% 44% 31% 46% 37% Disapprove 16 18 19 18 16 19 16 18 DK/NA 43 47 41 41 40 49 38 45 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 38% 36% 36% 39% 38% 33% 39% 37% Disapprove 17 18 12 22 18 19 20 16 DK/NA 45 46 51 39 44 48 41 47 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? (*Low also 35% Oct 2011) APPROVE....... High Low Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 Jul 18 Jun 06 Jan 09 Dec 22 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2013 2011* Approve 36 40 38 36 36 40 35 Disapprove 18 16 15 19 21 16 18 DK/NA 45 44 47 45 44 44 46 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 41% 77% 16% 38% 49% 35% 47% 23% Disapprove 32 6 54 33 28 36 30 40 DK/NA 26 17 31 29 23 29 23 37 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 43% 49% 53% 53% 55% 40% 61% 46% Disapprove 40 24 23 31 27 33 17 32 DK/NA 16 27 23 16 18 27 22 23 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 39% 43% 38% 45% 47% 34% 48% 41% Disapprove 44 25 28 36 33 29 30 37 DK/NA 17 32 34 19 20 37 22 22 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? APPROVE....... High Low Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 Jul 18 Jun 06 Jun 29 Feb 20 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011 2013 Approve 41 48 43 44 46 49 41 Disapprove 32 27 29 31 29 31 32 DK/NA 26 25 28 25 25 20 26 14. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Virginia today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 8% 11% 5% 9% 9% 7% 9% 8% Smwht satisfied 50 56 49 50 52 48 51 41 Smwht dissatisfied 29 23 32 28 27 31 28 37 Very dissatisfied 12 10 13 11 11 12 12 13 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Very satisfied 10% 8% 10% 10% 10% 8% 14% 7% Smwht satisfied 53 50 51 59 54 49 48 56 Smwht dissatisfied 27 29 27 23 26 30 29 25 Very dissatisfied 10 12 12 8 11 12 9 12 DK/NA - 1 - - - 1 - - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Very satisfied 8% 8% 6% 6% 10% 2% 9% 11% Smwht satisfied 55 47 47 54 54 53 53 44 Smwht dissatisfied 25 32 31 29 25 33 27 30 Very dissatisfied 11 12 14 11 11 12 10 13 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Virginia today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*High also 68% Jun 2011) VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Feb 20 Jan 10 Nov 15 Feb 09 Dec 22 Sep 14 Feb 20 2013 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011* 2013 Very satisfied 8 8 10 11 11 13 8 Smwht satisfied 50 57 57 55 53 55 50 Smwht dissatisfied 29 24 22 25 23 24 29 Very dissatisfied 12 10 11 9 11 7 12 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 15. As you may know Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is running for governor. Which comes closer to your point of view; he should stay in office as Attorney General because he can still serve effectively while running for governor, or he should resign from his job as Attorney General because he cannot serve effectively while running for governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Stay in office 43% 61% 30% 43% 46% 41% 47% 38% Resign 44 27 55 46 45 44 42 52 DK/NA 13 11 15 11 9 16 11 10 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Stay in office 46% 47% 49% 53% 53% 42% 53% 47% Resign 46 40 40 42 40 44 37 44 DK/NA 8 13 12 6 7 14 10 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Stay in office 43% 43% 40% 42% 52% 43% 45% 43% Resign 50 41 43 46 42 45 44 44 DK/NA 7 16 16 12 6 12 10 13 16. As you may know Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling might run for governor. Which comes closer to your point of view; he should stay in office as Lieutenant Governor because he can still serve effectively while running for governor, or he should resign from his job as Lieutenant Governor because he cannot serve effectively while running for governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Stay in office 48% 55% 42% 48% 53% 43% 51% 45% Resign 36 32 39 37 36 36 34 44 DK/NA 16 12 20 15 11 21 15 11 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Stay in office 57% 46% 50% 52% 58% 44% 45% 55% Resign 31 36 33 32 31 36 40 30 DK/NA 12 17 17 15 10 20 15 15 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Stay in office 54% 43% 43% 48% 56% 47% 49% 48% Resign 35 37 37 36 35 37 37 34 DK/NA 11 20 19 15 10 16 14 18 Demographic Summary
