May 16, 2013 - Dem Inches Ahead In Virginian Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hillary Clinton, Sen. Warner Run Well In 2016 Pres Race PDF format Democrat Terry McAuliffe has opened up a slight 43 - 38 percent lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the race to become Virginia's next governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. While Virginia may be considered a "swing state" in presidential elections, trial heats for 2016 find that both Hillary Clinton and U.S. Sen. Mark Warner would carry the Old Dominion by comfortable double-digits margins if the White House voting were today, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. The McAuliffe-Cuccinelli race has been a tossup since Quinnipiac University began surveying the contest late last year, with a March 27 survey showing Cuccinelli at 40 percent to McAuliffe's 38 percent, a statistical tie. "The governor's race remains tight and could well go all the way to November as a close contest," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. "The 17 percent of voters who say they are undecided will determine the Commonwealth's next governor. At this point neither man seems to have much of an edge. " Independent voters, who tend to be later deciders and generally go to the winner, are split right down the middle in the governor's race, 38 percent for Cuccinelli and 37 percent for McAuliffe. Cuccinelli has an 85 - 3 percent lead among Republicans, while Democrats go to McAuliffe 83 - 5 percent. Cuccinelli carries men 44 - 38 percent, while McAuliffe wins women 47 - 33 percent. White voters go 48 - 35 percent for the Republican, as black voters back the Democrat 70 - 5 percent. Neither candidate is well-known. McAuliffe is viewed favorably by 22 percent of the electorate and unfavorably by 17 percent, while 60 percent don't know enough about him to have an opinion. McAuliffe has made no progress in reaching the electorate this year. His favorable/unfavorable ratio in Quinnipiac University's January poll was 23 - 16 percent favorable, about the same as today. Cuccinelli, the state attorney general, is better known, with a 31 - 24 favorability rating. "At this point, neither candidate sets the electorate's heart atwitter," said Brown. "But we are starting to see the beginning of the television advertising campaign by the two candidates, and presumably those ads will begin to introduce the candidates to the voters." Cuccinelli gets a healthy 47 - 30 percent job approval rating as attorney general and voters say 45 - 25 percent that he has the right experience to be governor. McAuliffe has the right experience, voters say 31 - 26 percent. McAuliffe is too liberal, 22 percent of voters say, while 4 percent say he is too conservative and 33 percent say he is about right. Cuccinelli is too conservative, 28 percent of voters say, with 6 percent saying he is too liberal and 38 percent saying he is about right. Jobs are the most important issue in their vote for governor, 22 percent of voters say, followed by 16 percent who list government spending, 15 percent who list health care, 12 percent who cite schools and 11 percent who list taxes. "It does not appear that the governor's race will be driven by one overarching issue," said Brown. In trial heats for 2016, former Secretary of State Clinton would defeat U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida 51 - 38 percent, and U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the 2012 GOP vice presidential candidate, 50 - 40 percent. Sen. Warner would defeat Rubio 51 - 33 percent and Ryan 50 - 37 percent. From May 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,286 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McAuliffe 43% 3% 83% 37% 38% 47% 35% 70% Cuccinelli 38 85 5 38 44 33 48 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 DK/NA 17 10 11 22 14 19 15 22 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ McAuliffe 48% 39% 47% 41% 45% 43% 44% 44% 37% Cuccinelli 40 37 33 42 43 35 37 37 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 - DK/NA 11 20 17 17 9 20 17 15 17 East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh McAuliffe 52% 45% 39% 32% Cuccinelli 37 34 41 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 16 17 25 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 16 Mar 27 Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 McAuliffe 43 38 38 40 41 Cuccinelli 38 40 38 39 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 17 18 21 18 21 2. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 22% 8% 38% 20% 23% 22% 22% 23% Unfavorable 17 35 2 16 23 11 21 1 Hvn't hrd enough 60 57 58 62 53 66 56 73 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 16 Mar 27 Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 22 20 23 23 17 Unfavorable 17 16 16 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 60 63 60 61 68 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 3. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 31% 64% 7% 32% 38% 26% 39% 8% Unfavorable 24 5 42 25 25 24 25 24 Hvn't hrd enough 42 31 48 42 35 49 36 65 REFUSED 2 - 3 1 2 2 1 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 16 Mar 27 Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 31 30 30 33 29 Unfavorable 24 24 25 25 24 Hvn't hrd enough 42 44 44 41 45 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 51% 8% 94% 43% 42% 58% 40% 87% Rubio 38 86 2 40 46 32 48 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 3 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 8 4 3 13 8 9 8 5 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Clinton 44% 38% 32% 33% 33% 48% 26% 38% Rubio 47 49 56 58 55 41 65 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 1 - 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 9 9 6 7 10 6 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Clinton 50% 51% 61% 44% 47% 55% 52% 52% 41% Rubio 41 37 29 44 43 32 36 38 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 7 9 7 10 6 9 9 6 12 6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Warner the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Warner 51% 13% 91% 43% 46% 55% 43% 81% Rubio 33 74 2 35 39 28 41 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 4 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 11 10 4 17 10 13 12 7 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Warner 48% 40% 32% 39% 39% 47% 28% 41% Rubio 41 41 50 51 47 35 58 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 - 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 9 14 14 7 10 14 13 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Warner 52% 50% 56% 50% 48% 56% 54% 51% 42% Rubio 36 31 26 37 39 29 29 33 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 3 3 1 2 1 3 2 1 DK/NA 9 13 13 9 8 11 11 11 14 7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 50% 8% 94% 43% 43% 57% 40% 87% Ryan 40 87 2 45 48 33 51 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 6 3 4 8 5 8 6 5 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Clinton 46% 36% 31% 34% 32% 47% 24% 39% Ryan 47 53 59 60 58 44 71 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 1 3 3 1 - 2 DK/NA 5 7 8 3 5 7 4 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Clinton 52% 49% 59% 45% 48% 57% 53% 51% 40% Ryan 40 40 33 47 44 34 38 40 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 - DK/NA 5 7 7 5 5 5 5 7 9 8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Warner the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Warner 50% 10% 88% 45% 45% 55% 41% 82% Ryan 37 82 3 38 43 31 46 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 10 6 6 13 7 12 10 9 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Warner 48% 37% 31% 32% 37% 46% 23% 40% Ryan 41 48 54 56 52 39 66 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 DK/NA 8 11 12 9 7 13 10 10 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Warner 53% 48% 57% 47% 48% 48% 55% 52% 42% Ryan 36 37 30 43 42 36 33 36 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 8 11 9 8 7 10 8 10 11 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 47% 75% 25% 48% 52% 42% 50% 32% Disapprove 30 11 48 31 29 31 29 37 DK/NA 23 14 28 21 19 27 21 31 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Approve 44% 48% 48% 47% 45% 47% 42% 46% 56% Disapprove 42 23 26 33 40 26 28 36 26 DK/NA 15 28 26 20 16 27 30 18 19 East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Approve 42% 47% 49% 48% Disapprove 35 33 29 22 DK/NA 23 20 22 30 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? APPROVE....... High Low May 16 Mar 27 Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 Jun 29 Feb 20 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2011 2013 Approve 47 45 41 48 43 49 41 Disapprove 30 27 32 27 29 31 32 DK/NA 23 28 26 25 28 20 26 17. Which of the following issues is the most important to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: jobs, schools, taxes, government spending, gun policy, health care, transportation, or something else? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Jobs 22% 19% 25% 22% 23% 22% 19% 32% Schools 12 6 16 15 12 13 11 13 Taxes 11 17 8 10 12 9 11 11 Government spending 16 19 9 19 19 13 18 10 Gun policy 10 13 10 8 11 9 11 8 Health care 15 18 17 11 9 20 16 12 Transportation 6 4 6 9 8 5 5 7 Something else 7 5 9 6 6 7 7 5 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Jobs 19% 24% 27% 21% 20% 15% 22% 26% 23% Schools 15 11 13 14 11 13 17 12 8 Taxes 10 11 8 10 14 12 11 10 9 Government spending 19 14 11 17 19 17 18 13 16 Gun policy 6 12 14 10 5 15 10 9 10 Health care 14 15 17 11 12 11 9 16 23 Transportation 10 4 5 8 10 7 7 6 6 Something else 6 7 6 7 7 10 6 7 5 DK/NA 1 1 - 2 1 - - 2 1 East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Jobs 18% 24% 24% 24% Schools 12 13 13 11 Taxes 11 11 10 11 Government spending 17 15 18 11 Gun policy 9 7 10 15 Health care 16 11 14 18 Transportation 9 12 3 4 Something else 8 6 9 3 DK/NA - 1 - 2 18. (If had most important issue Q17) And which is the next most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: jobs, schools, taxes, government spending, gun policy, health care, transportation, or something else? HAD MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q17............................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Jobs 19% 17% 22% 20% 21% 18% 19% 21% Schools 15 11 17 15 16 15 16 16 Taxes 15 19 12 17 16 14 15 14 Government spending 15 22 7 18 15 14 16 9 Gun policy 10 7 12 9 9 11 11 9 Health care 16 14 19 14 12 20 14 24 Transportation 5 6 6 5 7 4 6 5 Something else 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Jobs 20% 19% 19% 16% 21% 20% 22% 19% 16% Schools 15 15 17 19 13 20 22 11 12 Taxes 13 16 14 17 16 14 17 14 15 Government spending 15 14 15 14 16 15 12 16 15 Gun policy 9 11 8 11 10 10 10 11 9 Health care 16 16 21 15 12 15 11 19 18 Transportation 8 4 3 3 11 4 3 6 8 Something else 2 4 3 5 2 1 2 3 5 DK/NA - 1 1 - - - - 1 2 East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Jobs 18% 19% 20% 20% Schools 15 16 15 16 Taxes 16 14 15 14 Government spending 14 14 16 12 Gun policy 10 10 11 11 Health care 16 15 15 21 Transportation 9 7 4 1 Something else 3 4 3 3 DK/NA - 1 - 2 19. Do you think Terry McAuliffe has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 31% 17% 45% 33% 31% 31% 30% 36% No 26 45 13 23 31 21 29 15 DK/NA 43 39 43 44 37 49 42 50 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes 38% 27% 26% 36% 40% 33% 25% 35% 29% No 28 24 25 24 30 11 26 29 32 DK/NA 33 49 49 40 30 56 49 36 39 East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Yes 39% 30% 30% 21% No 24 27 26 26 DK/NA 37 43 43 54 TREND: Do you think Terry McAuliffe has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not? May 16 Mar 27 2013 2013 Yes 31 28 No 26 23 DK/NA 43 49 20. Do you think Ken Cuccinelli has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 45% 72% 24% 50% 51% 40% 50% 28% No 25 10 39 24 23 26 23 32 DK/NA 30 19 37 26 25 34 28 40 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes 51% 42% 38% 53% 53% 47% 39% 47% 48% No 30 22 23 24 29 19 21 31 26 DK/NA 19 36 38 23 18 34 40 22 26 East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Yes 50% 41% 50% 34% No 27 31 22 22 DK/NA 23 29 27 44 TREND: Do you think Ken Cuccinelli has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not? May 16 Mar 27 2013 2013 Yes 45 44 No 25 22 DK/NA 30 35 21. Do you think Terry McAuliffe is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Liberal 22% 43% 7% 22% 28% 17% 26% 10% Conservative 4 2 7 2 4 5 3 7 About right 33 15 48 36 34 32 31 38 DK/NA 41 40 38 40 35 46 40 44 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Liberal 28% 19% 18% 21% 31% 10% 21% 25% 29% Conservative 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 5 2 About right 39 29 31 38 37 35 26 36 33 DK/NA 30 48 46 38 29 51 49 34 37 East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Liberal 22% 19% 24% 22% Conservative 3 3 3 8 About right 42 33 31 24 DK/NA 33 45 42 47 TREND: Do you think Terry McAuliffe is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? May 16 Mar 27 2013 2013 Liberal 22 21 Conservative 4 4 About right 33 29 DK/NA 41 45 22. Do you think Ken Cuccinelli is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Liberal 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 7% 4% 14% Conservative 28 8 45 29 31 25 28 29 About right 38 68 17 37 40 36 41 22 DK/NA 28 18 31 28 23 33 27 35 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Liberal 2% 8% 7% 10% 1% 6% 6% 7% 5% Conservative 47 17 19 31 46 23 28 33 24 About right 34 40 38 38 38 39 29 38 48 DK/NA 17 35 36 20 15 33 36 22 24 East/ West/ North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Liberal 3% 7% 6% 10% Conservative 39 26 27 15 About right 38 37 42 30 DK/NA 21 31 24 44 TREND: Do you think Ken Cuccinelli is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? May 16 Mar 27 2013 2013 Liberal 6 5 Conservative 28 29 About right 38 32 DK/NA 28 33 Demographic Summary
