July 18, 2013 - Big Gender Gap As Dem Holds Lead In Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Same-Sex Marriage 50 - 43 Percent PDF format A yawning gender gap in the Virginia governor's race leaves Democrat Terry McAuliffe with a slight 43 - 39 percent lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to the results of a May 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe at 43 percent to Cuccinelli's 38 percent. The Republican wins the barbecue poll by a rib as 38 percent say they would prefer to chat with Cuccinelli at a barbecue, while 34 percent would rather talk to McAuliffe. Women are divided 37 - 36 percent, while men prefer Cuccinelli 40 - 33 percent. "Democrat Terry McAuliffe is ahead by a nose in this tight race, but half the electorate doesn't know enough about him to decide whether they view him favorably or unfavorably. Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is somewhat better known with only a third of voters having no opinion about him," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "With such a large segment of the electorate unfamiliar with either candidate, there is a lot of movement possible, in either direction, before Election Day. Solid or shaky, McAuliffe's lead is built on women voters." McAuliffe has a 30 - 19 favorability rating, with 50 percent of voters saying they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Virginia voters give Cuccinelli a split 31 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 36 percent offering no opinion. Voters approve 47 - 34 percent of the job Cuccinelli is doing as state attorney general. Since May 16, McAuliffe's net favorability has improved 6 percentage points while Cuccinelli's net favorability has dropped 6 points. In the matchup, Cuccinelli carries Republicans 83 - 3 percent, while McAuliffe takes Democrats 87 - 3 percent. Independent voters are divided with 40 percent for the Democrat and 38 percent for the Republican. McAuliffe leads 48 - 32 percent among women and 73 - 7 percent among black voters. Cuccinelli leads 46 - 38 percent among men and 48 - 36 percent among white voters. The controversy surrounding Gov. Bob McDonnell will not affect their vote for governor, 70 percent say, while 14 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for Cuccinelli and 10 percent say it would make them more likely to vote for him. Same-Sex Marriage Virginia voters support 50 - 43 percent allowing same-sex couples to marry in the state. Support is 68 - 26 percent among Democrats and 52 - 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans are opposed 68 - 26 percent. Women back same-sex marriage 55 - 39 percent while men are opposed 49 - 43 percent. White voters support it 51 - 43 percent while black voters are opposed 48 - 42 percent. The candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney are virtually unknown as 81 to 90 percent of the voters do not know enough about lieutenant governor candidates Ralph Northam, the Democrat or E.W. Jackson, the Republican, or attorney general candidates Mark Herring, the Democrat, or Mark Obenshain, the Republican, to form an opinion. "Unknown doesn't come close to describing just how anonymous the candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general are to the citizenry that will elect two of them in three and a half months," said Brown. Virginia voters disapprove 51 - 46 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from a split 49 - 47 percent approval May 15. Disapproval is 87 - 10 percent among Republicans and 55 - 41 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 84 - 12 percent. Women approve 50 - 45 percent while men disapprove 57 - 40 percent. From July 11 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,030 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McAuliffe 43% 3% 87% 40% 38% 48% 36% 73% Cuccinelli 39 83 3 38 46 32 48 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 16 13 9 20 14 17 14 18 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ McAuliffe 48% 40% 45% 38% 49% 39% 40% 46% 45% Cuccinelli 40 38 32 44 39 39 36 40 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 - 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 10 19 19 15 10 19 20 12 17 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 18 May 16 Mar 27 Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 McAuliffe 43 43 38 38 40 41 Cuccinelli 39 38 40 38 39 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 16 17 18 21 18 21 2. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 30% 9% 53% 28% 28% 32% 27% 45% Unfavorable 19 32 2 21 23 14 23 2 Hvn't hrd enough 50 57 45 49 48 51 48 53 REFUSED 2 2 - 2 1 2 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 18 May 16 Mar 27 Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 30 22 20 23 23 17 Unfavorable 19 17 16 16 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 50 60 63 60 61 68 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 1 3. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 31% 64% 6% 29% 37% 26% 38% 11% Unfavorable 30 5 53 30 26 33 29 33 Hvn't hrd enough 36 28 38 39 34 38 31 52 REFUSED 3 3 4 2 2 3 2 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 18 May 16 Mar 27 Feb 20 Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 31 31 30 30 33 29 Unfavorable 30 24 24 25 25 24 Hvn't hrd enough 36 42 44 44 41 45 REFUSED 3 2 2 1 2 2 5. Is your opinion of E.W. Jackson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 7% 10% 4% 7% 9% 5% 6% 8% Unfavorable 12 7 20 10 13 11 13 8 Hvn't hrd enough 81 83 76 82 77 84 80 84 REFUSED - - - - 1 - - - 6. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 7% 2% 13% 5% 7% 7% 6% 13% Unfavorable 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 Hvn't hrd enough 90 94 83 91 89 90 91 83 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 - 1 - 7. Is your opinion of Mark Herring favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 9% 7% 14% 8% 9% 9% 9% 7% Unfavorable 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 88 90 83 90 88 88 88 90 REFUSED - - - - - - - - 8. Is your opinion of Mark Obenshain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 9% 14% 6% 8% 11% 8% 10% 6% Unfavorable 5 3 6 7 7 4 5 7 Hvn't hrd enough 85 83 87 85 81 88 85 87 REFUSED - - 1 - - - - 1 22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 42% 50% 35% 43% 47% 37% 42% 51% Disapprove 16 8 24 15 15 17 15 14 DK/NA 42 42 41 42 38 46 44 35 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Approve 41% 43% 45% 47% 40% 49% 38% 42% 40% Disapprove 16 16 17 14 17 15 14 20 12 DK/NA 43 42 38 39 43 37 48 38 48 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? (*Low also 35% Oct 2011) APPROVE....... High Low Jul 18 May 15 Mar 27 Feb 20 Jan 09 Jul 18 Dec 22 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2011* Approve 42 37 37 36 40 42 35 Disapprove 16 17 15 18 16 16 18 DK/NA 42 46 48 45 44 42 46 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 47% 79% 21% 47% 51% 44% 51% 37% Disapprove 34 6 60 34 30 37 32 41 DK/NA 19 15 20 18 18 19 17 22 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Approve 42% 50% 45% 51% 47% 53% 44% 47% 46% Disapprove 47 26 30 33 40 22 33 37 39 DK/NA 11 24 26 16 13 25 24 15 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 18 May 16 Mar 27 Feb 20 Jan 09 Jun 29 Feb 20 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2011 2013 Approve 47 47 45 41 48 49 41 Disapprove 34 30 27 32 27 31 32 DK/NA 19 23 28 26 25 20 26 25. Do you think Terry McAuliffe has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 37% 25% 53% 35% 35% 39% 38% 40% No 27 37 15 29 33 21 28 14 DK/NA 36 38 32 36 31 40 33 45 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes 47% 31% 33% 41% 43% 33% 31% 44% 34% No 29 26 26 29 26 22 24 29 29 DK/NA 24 43 41 30 31 44 45 27 37 TREND: Do you think Terry McAuliffe has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not? Jul 18 May 16 Mar 27 2013 2013 2013 Yes 37 31 28 No 27 26 23 DK/NA 36 43 49 26. Do you think Ken Cuccinelli has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 49% 74% 31% 48% 55% 44% 55% 31% No 27 6 46 28 25 29 25 33 DK/NA 24 20 23 24 20 27 20 35 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes 51% 48% 42% 50% 56% 51% 44% 51% 46% No 35 23 27 28 29 16 28 31 30 DK/NA 14 30 31 23 15 34 28 17 24 TREND: Do you think Ken Cuccinelli has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not? Jul 18 May 16 Mar 27 2013 2013 2013 Yes 49 45 44 No 27 25 22 DK/NA 24 30 35 27. Do you think Terry McAuliffe is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Liberal 26% 48% 4% 27% 35% 18% 31% 6% Conservative 4 1 4 5 4 3 4 1 About right 36 14 60 35 33 38 33 52 DK/NA 35 37 32 34 29 40 33 41 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Liberal 31% 22% 20% 29% 29% 20% 23% 29% 27% Conservative 2 5 5 5 2 7 2 4 2 About right 44 31 32 36 43 32 31 40 35 DK/NA 23 42 43 30 27 41 44 27 36 TREND: Do you think Terry McAuliffe is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Jul 18 May 16 Mar 27 2013 2013 2013 Liberal 26 22 21 Conservative 4 4 4 About right 36 33 29 DK/NA 35 41 45 28. Do you think Ken Cuccinelli is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Liberal 5% 3% 8% 4% 5% 6% 4% 9% Conservative 33 10 49 38 32 33 33 31 About right 37 68 15 34 42 32 41 25 DK/NA 25 19 28 24 21 29 22 34 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Liberal 2% 7% 10% 3% 2% 4% 3% 7% 6% Conservative 54 20 21 32 48 24 32 37 33 About right 30 40 35 42 33 38 35 37 36 DK/NA 13 33 34 22 16 34 29 19 25 TREND: Do you think Ken Cuccinelli is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Jul 18 May 16 Mar 27 2013 2013 2013 Liberal 5 6 5 Conservative 33 28 29 About right 37 38 32 DK/NA 25 28 33 29. Who would you rather chat with at a barbecue, Terry McAuliffe or Ken Cuccinelli? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McAuliffe 34% 11% 58% 34% 33% 36% 32% 43% Cuccinelli 38 66 14 37 40 37 43 22 BOTH(VOL) 7 5 7 7 8 6 6 6 NEITHER(VOL) 10 7 11 11 9 11 9 17 DK/NA 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 12 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ McAuliffe 47% 26% 36% 28% 43% 31% 36% 35% 33% Cuccinelli 33 41 32 44 38 40 35 40 36 BOTH(VOL) 5 8 9 8 5 13 6 7 5 NEITHER(VOL) 8 12 10 10 9 5 11 12 11 DK/NA 6 13 13 10 6 11 12 7 15 35. How much have you heard or read about Governor McDonnell's relationship with a certain donor who provided multiple gifts, including large financial contributions, to the governor and his family; a lot, a little, or nothing at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A lot 42% 39% 47% 38% 44% 40% 46% 30% A little 34 38 28 38 35 33 35 32 Nothing at all 22 21 23 22 20 24 18 36 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ A lot 55% 34% 37% 40% 48% 23% 31% 49% 56% A little 32 35 29 39 37 33 34 37 29 Nothing at all 12 29 31 20 14 43 31 12 12 DK/NA 2 2 3 1 2 1 4 2 2 36. Do you think Governor McDonnell was involved in any wrong-doing or not, or haven't you heard enough about this? IF YES: Do you think this is serious or not serious? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Serious 27% 11% 43% 26% 23% 31% 28% 23% Yes/Not serious 5 3 5 5 6 4 5 6 No, not involved 16 31 4 14 20 12 19 4 Hvn't hrd enough 49 52 46 51 48 50 45 63 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes/Serious 38% 21% 24% 29% 32% 15% 23% 34% 33% Yes/Not serious 8 3 2 5 7 3 8 5 3 No, not involved 12 18 14 15 17 17 9 17 18 Hvn't hrd enough 38 56 57 49 42 63 58 40 42 REFUSED 4 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 5 Heard/ ReadQ35 Yes/Serious 35% Yes/Not serious 6 No, not involved 20 Hvn't hrd enough 35 REFUSED 3 TREND: Do you think Governor McDonnell was involved in any wrong-doing or not, or haven't you heard enough about this? IF YES: Do you think this is serious or not serious? Jul 17 May 15 2013 2013 Yes/Serious 27 12 Yes/Not serious 5 6 No, not involved 16 16 Hvn't hrd enough 49 63 REFUSED 3 2 37. Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the way Governor McDonnell is handling this matter? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Satisfied 30% 52% 15% 28% 34% 26% 33% 24% Not satisfied 41 21 57 44 39 42 42 38 DK/NA 30 28 28 28 27 32 26 37 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Satisfied 27% 32% 30% 34% 29% 27% 25% 31% 34% Not satisfied 52 34 38 41 48 34 38 46 41 DK/NA 21 35 32 26 23 39 36 23 25 Heard/ ReadQ35 Satisfied 32% Not satisfied 50 DK/NA 18 38. Do you think Governor McDonnell should resign over this matter or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Resign 16% 4% 29% 13% 12% 19% 15% 17% No/Not 61 75 45 65 69 53 62 57 DK/NA 24 21 26 23 19 28 22 26 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes/Resign 18% 15% 14% 17% 16% 8% 13% 18% 20% No/Not 62 60 60 62 64 66 57 62 58 DK/NA 20 26 26 21 19 26 30 20 22 Heard/ ReadQ35 Yes/Resign 18% No/Not 67 DK/NA 15 39. Does this matter make you more likely to vote for Ken Cuccinelli for governor, less likely to vote for Ken Cuccinelli for governor, or doesn't it make a difference? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 10% 15% 5% 11% 9% 11% 10% 8% Less likely 14 6 22 13 12 15 13 16 No difference 70 75 66 69 74 66 73 63 DK/NA 6 4 7 6 5 8 5 13 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ More likely 8% 12% 11% 10% 9% 9% 11% 12% 8% Less likely 17 12 13 15 14 9 11 16 19 No difference 71 69 69 72 72 78 70 68 64 DK/NA 4 8 7 4 5 5 8 5 9 Heard/ ReadQ35 More likely 11% Less likely 16 No difference 70 DK/NA 3 40. Do you support or oppose allowing same sex couples to get married in Virginia? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 50% 26% 68% 52% 43% 55% 51% 42% Oppose 43 68 26 39 49 39 43 48 DK/NA 7 6 6 9 8 6 6 10 WHITE..................................................... COLLEGE DEG RELIGION.......... BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath None Men Wom Yes No Support 60% 45% 36% 56% 82% 43% 58% 22% 56% Oppose 34 49 57 40 16 51 36 74 37 DK/NA 6 6 8 4 2 6 6 4 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Support 57% 45% 49% 49% 57% 74% 52% 43% 37% Oppose 35 48 45 44 37 22 36 51 54 DK/NA 8 7 7 7 6 4 11 6 9 Demographic Summary
