May 10, 2007 - Obama Runs Closest To Giuliani In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Losing Ground In Main Race, Dem Primary

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Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads all Democratic contenders in the 2008 presidential race in Connecticut, squeaking by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 44 - 42 percent; inching past former Vice President Al Gore 45 - 42 percent, and beating New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 48 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Clinton tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 47 - 40 percent.

This compares to a 46 - 44 percent Clinton lead over Giuliani in a February 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In other possible presidential matchups:
  • Clinton tops former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 49 - 33 percent;
  • Obama beats McCain 46 - 38 percent;
  • Gore tops McCain 45 - 41 percent;
  • Gore beats Thompson 51 - 29 percent;
  • Obama bests Thompson 51 - 27 percent.
In a Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 28 percent, followed by Obama with 20 percent, compared to a 33 - 21 percent Clinton lead February 19. In this latest survey, Gore gets 13 percent, with 8 percent for 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards and 6 percent for Sen. Christopher Dodd.

Giuliani gets 36 percent of Republicans, with 15 percent for McCain, Mitt Romney at 9 percent, Thompson at 7 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5 percent.

"Connecticut voters credit New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani for his role in the 9/11 recovery," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.

"This follows the pattern of another neighboring state, New Jersey, where Quinnipiac University polls show Giuliani running strong," Schwartz added.

"Giuliani benefits from being an almost hometown candidate, but native son Sen. Christopher Dodd gains no traction among Connecticut voters, ranking fifth among Democratic contenders with only 6 percent of the vote.

"While this presidential campaign changes from week to week, the surprise this week is Sen. Barack Obama's performance against Giuliani and Sen. Clinton's loss of support in the head-to-head matchup."

Clinton gets a 49 - 42 percent favorability rating from Connecticut voters, down from 53 - 36 percent February 19. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 61 - 25 percent for Giuliani;
  • 48 - 28 percent for McCain;
  • 51 - 15 percent for Obama;
  • 46 - 28 percent for Edwards;
  • 54 - 37 percent for Gore;
  • 45 - 31 percent for Dodd;
  • For Thompson, 63 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
  • For Romney, 60 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion. President Bush's Approval
Connecticut voters disapprove 72 - 24 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, unchanged from February 19.

Voters disapprove 77 - 20 percent of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, and say 65 - 30 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

From May 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,427 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 375 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points, and 543 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Men     Wom


Biden 2% 4% 1% Clark - - - Clinton 28 20 34 Dodd 6 10 4 Edwards 8 8 8 Gore 13 17 11 Gravel - - - Kucinich 1 - 1 Obama 20 20 20 Richardson 1 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - DK/NA 17 15 18

TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Biden 2 2 Clark - 1 Clinton 28 33 Dodd 6 8 Edwards 8 5 Gore 13 9 Gravel - na Kucinich 1 1 Obama 20 21 Richardson 1 1 Vilsack na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 17 16



2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Men     Wom


Brownback - - - Gilmore - - - Gingrich 5 6 3 Giuliani 36 40 33 Hagel - - - Huckabee - - - Hunter - - - McCain 15 16 15 Pataki 1 1 1 Paul 2 4 - Romney 9 8 10 Tancredo - 1 - Thompson, F. 7 11 3 Thompson, T. 1 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 4 DK/NA 17 11 24

TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson, for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Brownback - 1% Gilmore - - Gingrich 5 5 Giuliani 36 43 Hagel - 2 Huckabee - 1 Hunter - 1 McCain 15 27 Pataki 1 - Paul 2 na Romney 9 4 Tancredo - - Thompson, F. 7 na Thompson, T. 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - DK/NA 17 12



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 42% 4% 76% 35% 34% 49% Giuliani 48 89 17 51 57 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 DK/NA 7 7 5 9 6 8

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Clinton 42 46 Giuliani 48 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 7 7



4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Obama 42% 8% 75% 37% 37% 47% Giuliani 44 83 15 46 51 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 2 DK/NA 10 7 9 12 8 11



5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 42% 4% 78% 37% 38% 46% Giuliani 45 87 16 47 53 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 - 4 2 4 DK/NA 8 7 6 10 6 10



6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 47% 7% 79% 42% 40% 53% McCain 40 83 13 40 50 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 1 4 3 3 DK/NA 9 6 6 13 6 11

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Clinton 47 48 McCain 40 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 9 9



7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Obama 46% 12% 76% 43% 41% 51% McCain 38 77 15 36 46 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 3 2 3 DK/NA 12 8 7 16 9 14

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Obama 46 43 McCain 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 12 15



8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 45% 7% 79% 40% 40% 49% McCain 41 84 13 42 51 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 2 4 DK/NA 10 6 7 13 5 13



9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 49% 10% 82% 45% 41% 56% Thompson, F. 33 75 10 30 41 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 3 3 DK/NA 13 11 6 19 12 13



10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Obama 51% 16% 81% 50% 46% 56% Thompson, F. 27 67 8 20 36 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 1 6 3 5 DK/NA 16 14 9 22 14 18



11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 51% 10% 85% 47% 46% 55% Thompson, F. 29 70 5 25 36 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 6 3 5 DK/NA 14 16 6 18 12 16



TREND:. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Score = Favorable (Haven't Heard Enough)

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Clinton, Hillary 49( 7) 53( 8) Dodd, Chris 45(22) 49(18) Edwards, John 46(25) 39(30) Giuliani, Rudy 61(12) 61(14) Gore, Al 54( 7) 44( 6) McCain, John 48(22) 52(22) Obama, Barack 51(32) 48(40) Romney, Mitt 15(60) 13(67) Thompson, Fred 21(63) na



12. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 49% 10% 76% 48% 41% 56% Unfavorable 42 85 14 41 51 35 Hvn't hrd enough 7 3 7 8 7 6 REFUSED 2 1 3 3 1 3

TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Favorable 49 53 Unfavorable 42 36 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 REFUSED 2 3



13. Is your opinion of Chris Dodd favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 45% 28% 59% 43% 41% 48% Unfavorable 31 53 16 31 40 24 Hvn't hrd enough 22 15 23 24 18 25 REFUSED 2 4 2 2 1 4

TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Dodd favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Favorable 45 49 Unfavorable 31 30 Hvn't hrd enough 22 18 REFUSED 2 3



14. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 46% 33% 61% 43% 44% 47% Unfavorable 28 51 11 27 36 21 Hvn't hrd enough 25 14 27 28 19 29 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 3

TREND: Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Favorable 46 39 Unfavorable 28 28 Hvn't hrd enough 25 30 REFUSED 2 3



15. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 61% 82% 43% 63% 67% 56% Unfavorable 25 8 41 23 22 27 Hvn't hrd enough 12 9 14 11 10 14 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 1 3

TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Favorable 61 61 Unfavorable 25 22 Hvn't hrd enough 12 14 REFUSED 2 2



16. Is your opinion of -- Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 54% 20% 80% 52% 48% 59% Unfavorable 37 74 11 37 46 29 Hvn't hrd enough 7 3 8 7 4 9 REFUSED 2 3 1 3 1 3

TREND: Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Favorable 54 44 Unfavorable 37 49 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 REFUSED 2 1



17. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 48% 74% 31% 50% 57% 41% Unfavorable 28 14 39 27 27 28 Hvn't hrd enough 22 11 27 21 15 27 REFUSED 2 1 3 2 1 3

TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Favorable 48 52 Unfavorable 28 22 Hvn't hrd enough 22 22 REFUSED 2 4



18. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 51% 32% 68% 50% 47% 54% Unfavorable 15 35 6 11 18 13 Hvn't hrd enough 32 32 26 37 34 31 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Favorable 51 48 Unfavorable 15 10 Hvn't hrd enough 32 40 REFUSED 1 2



19. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 15% 33% 6% 13% 20% 11% Unfavorable 23 17 28 23 25 22 Hvn't hrd enough 60 49 65 61 54 66 REFUSED 1 - - 2 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 10  Feb 19
                        2007    2007


Favorable 15 13 Unfavorable 23 19 Hvn't hrd enough 60 67 REFUSED 1 1



20. Is your opinion of -- Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 21% 45% 9% 19% 30% 13% Unfavorable 15 7 23 12 17 13 Hvn't hrd enough 63 48 67 68 52 72 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 1



23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 53% 79% 35% 53% 55% 51% Disapprove 39 14 55 40 40 37 DK/NA 8 6 10 7 5 12



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        May 10  Feb 19  Aug 17  Jul 20  Jun 8   Sep 21  Jul 31
                        2007    2007    2006    2006    2006    2000    2003


Approve 53 52 55 55 56 80 51 Disapprove 39 40 40 35 32 14 33 DK/NA 8 7 6 10 13 6 17



24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 60% 41% 75% 61% 56% 64% Disapprove 26 46 13 24 35 19 DK/NA 14 13 12 14 10 17

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator? (* = Also 52% on 2/14/2002)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        May 10  Feb 19  Aug 17  Jul 20  Jun 8   Apr 19  May 1
                        2007    2007    2006    2006    2006    2001    2003 *


Approve 60 60 57 57 57 71 52 Disapprove 26 25 27 25 24 16 16 DK/NA 14 15 16 19 19 13 31



25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 24% 61% 5% 18% 27% 20% Disapprove 72 32 94 77 70 74 DK/NA 4 7 1 5 3 5

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (* also 24% 2/17/07 & 6/8/06)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        May 10  Feb 19  Aug 17  Jul 20  Jun 8   Dec 19  May 10
                        2007    2007    2006    2006    2006    2001    2007* 


Approve 24 24 29 27 24 87 24 Disapprove 72 72 67 68 72 10 72 DK/NA 4 5 4 5 4 2 4



26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 20% 56% 3% 14% 24% 18% Disapprove 77 41 96 83 73 80 DK/NA 3 4 1 3 3 2

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        May 10  Feb 19  Aug 17  Jul 20  Jun 8   Oct 10  May 10
                        2007    2007    2006    2006    2006    2003    2007


Approve 20 22 26 25 23 41 20 Disapprove 77 74 70 70 73 55 77 DK/NA 3 4 4 4 4 4 3



27. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 30% 69% 9% 25% 37% 25% Wrong thing 65 27 87 71 59 71 DK/NA 4 4 5 4 5 4

TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        May 10  Feb 19  Aug 17  Jul 20  Jun 8   May 2   Feb 16
                        2007    2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006  


Right thing 30 30 33 31 33 34 34 Wrong thing 65 65 62 63 63 61 61 DK/NA 4 5 5 5 4 5 5