July 2, 2008 - Obama Tops McCain Among Most Groups In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Lieberman On The Ticket Doesn't Help Republicans

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Illinois Sen. Barack Obama crushes Arizona Sen. John McCain 56 - 35 percent among Connecticut likely voters, topping the Republican among every sub-group except Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 86 - 9 percent among Democrats and 52 - 36 percent among independent voters, while trailing 79 - 16 percent among Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. The Democrat is ahead;
  • 53 - 40 percent among men;
  • 59 - 31 percent among women;
  • 53 - 40 percent among white voters;
  • 90 - 2 percent among black voters;
  • 68 - 26 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old;
  • 54 - 38 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old;
  • 53 - 38 percent among voters over 55.
Connecticut voters say 53 - 35 percent that Obama should not pick New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Democrats like the idea 51 - 42 percent, but Republicans oppose it 66 - 18 percent and independent voters balk 54 - 31 percent.

"At this stage of the campaign, Sen. Barack Obama is rolling over Sen. John McCain in Connecticut. Quinnipiac University also has conducted surveys in seven swing states in the last two weeks and Sen. Obama is ahead in every one" said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.

"It still is very early in the campaign and Obama gets a bump from not having to run against Sen. Clinton any more, but for now, the Connecticut landslide looks like part of a trend."

"Obama is winning among the demographic groups where he seemed to be having problems when he faced Sen. Clinton: white voters, especially whites with less than a college degree," Dr Schwartz added.

If McCain picks Sen. Joseph Lieberman as his running mate, only 14 percent of Connecticut voters say they are more likely to vote Republican, while 32 percent are less likely and 52 percent say it won't affect their vote.

By a 61 - 23 percent margin, Connecticut voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 46 - 38 percent for McCain.

Because of his age, 23 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75 percent say it won't affect their vote. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 89 percent say.

The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 55 percent say, while 21 percent cite the war in Iraq and 9 percent list healthcare.

Connecticut voters disapprove 78 - 19 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Only 14 percent are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the U.S. today, while 85 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."

"Is President Bush just an impossible burden for McCain? In Connecticut, it appears to be so," Dr. Schwartz said.

From June 26 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,437 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Obama                56%    16%    86%    52%    53%    59%    53%    90%    61%
McCain               35     79      9     36     40     31     40      2     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      1      1      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      5      5     11      6      8      7      8      6
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q12                      MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     War    Econ   Farfld Hrford Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Obama                74%    55%    54%    60%    58%    56%    54%
McCain               18     36     38     31     35     35     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      8      6      8      7      9      6
 
                                          WHITES..........................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Cath
 
Obama                68%    54%    53%    50%    58%    50%    55%    47%
McCain               26     38     38     42     36     45     36     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      7      8      7      5      4      9      7
 
                     PresVt2004..  BushJobAppQ5
                     Bush   Kerry  App    Dis
 
Obama                20%    86%     8%    70%
McCain               73      8     86     21
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      5      6      7
 
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED VOTERS.............
                        Jul 2   Mar 27  May 10  Feb 19
                        2008    2008    2007    2007
 
Obama                   52      52      46      43
McCain                  32      35      38      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       3       3       2
DK/NA                   13       9      12      15
 
 
1a.(If candidate choice given q1)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Made up              76%    81%    82%    67%    75%    77%    75%    91%    81%
Might change         23     19     17     32     24     22     24      9     18
DK/NA                 1      -      1      2      1      1      1      -      1
 
                            CAND CHOICEQ1.
                     Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              76%    78%    73%
Might change         23     21     26
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Approve              19%    50%     3%    17%    23%    16%    22%     1%    17%
Disapprove           78     45     95     79     75     80     75     98     81
DK/NA                 3      5      2      4      2      4      3      1      2
 
 
10. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            61%    32%    83%    58%    59%    63%    58%    91%    64%
Unfavorable          23     51      7     23     27     20     26      4     19
Hvn't hrd enough     14     15      9     18     12     16     15      2     14
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      2      2      1      2      2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            46%    79%    23%    48%    51%    40%    50%    10%    41%
Unfavorable          38     11     60     34     35     41     35     62     42
Hvn't hrd enough     15      9     15     17     12     18     13     26     15
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      2      1
 
 
12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             7%    16%     1%     6%     8%     6%     7%     1%     6%
The war in Iraq      21     13     27     20     19     23     22     18     16
The economy          55     56     55     55     57     54     54     59     63
Illegal immigration   3      4      1      5      4      2      3      -      3
Health care           9      5     11     10      8     10      8     14      9
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  3      4      3      2      3      3      3      2      3
DK/NA                 2      2      2      2      1      3      2      6      2
 
 
13. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72. Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           1%     3%     1%     1%     1%     1%     1%     1%     1%
Less likely          23     10     35     20     21     26     21     45     23
Doesn't make diff    75     86     64     78     77     72     77     53     76
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      1      -      -      -
 
 
14. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           7%     3%    11%     4%     6%     7%     5%    25%     6%
Less likely           3      7      1      3      4      3      4      -      2
Doesn't make diff    89     89     86     92     89     89     91     75     93
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      -      1      -      -
 
 
15. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  35%    18%    51%    31%    26%    42%    32%    48%    41%
No                   53     66     42     54     60     46     55     39     46
DK/NA                12     16      7     15     14     11     13     13     13
 
 
16. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          18%     7%    26%    17%    12%    23%    17%    20%    22%
Less likely          25     47      9     28     30     20     26      8     19
Doesn't make diff    55     45     64     52     56     55     55     70     57
DK/NA                 2      2      1      3      2      2      2      2      1
 
 
17. If John McCain chooses Joe Lieberman to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          14%    24%     7%    16%    15%    14%    15%     3%    11%
Less likely          32     15     42     33     33     32     31     44     33
Doesn't make diff    52     59     50     50     51     54     53     52     55
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
 
18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        1%     1%     1%     1%     1%     1%     1%     2%     -
Smwht satisfied      13     29      6     11     15     12     14      6     12
Smwht dissatisfied   37     44     32     40     37     37     39     34     34
Very dissatisfied    48     25     61     48     47     49     46     58     53
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      -      1      -      -      1
 
 
19. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Right thing          28%    63%     9%    25%    33%    24%    31%     5%    25%
Wrong thing          67     31     88     69     63     70     65     94     69
DK/NA                 5      6      3      6      4      5      5      1      6
 
 
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months OR Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable and then begin to withdraw them without a fixed date for full withdrawal?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Immediate withdrawal/
 fixed date          47%    23%    67%    43%    41%    53%    44%    75%    52%
Keep troops/without 
 a fixed date        48     74     28     52     54     43     51     19     43
DK/NA                 5      3      5      5      5      5      5      6      5