November 10, 2009 - Bysiewicz Trails Connecticut's Rell By Just 6 Points, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Don't Know Or Don't Care About Consultant Flap

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In an early look at the 2010 election for Connecticut Governor, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz runs best among possible Democratic challengers, trailing Republican incumbent Jodi Rell 46 - 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Gov. Rell leads 91 - 5 percent among Republicans and 56 - 26 percent among independent voters, while Bysiewicz leads 74 - 12 percent among Democrats.

Businessman Ned Lamont trails Rell 53 - 33 percent and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy loses 52 - 33 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In a Democratic primary matchup, Bysiewicz gets 26 percent to 23 percent for Lamont, with 9 percent for Malloy. No other contender tops 3 percent.

Connecticut voters approve 64 - 30 percent of the job Rell is doing, up from 59 - 34 percent September 16.

"It's early in the process, but Connecticut faces the interesting prospect of an all female Governor's race between Gov. Jodi Rell and Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz next year," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"Ned Lamont made headlines last week by announcing his exploratory committee, but Bysiewicz is the stronger general election candidate. She runs a fairly close race with Rell, but Lamont loses handily. In the primary Lamont and Bysiewicz are at the top, but Lamont's money gives him a big advantage.

"Gov. Rell is rebounding from her approval slump. We saw her dropping through the summer and now she is starting back up. If this trend continues, she will be hard to beat."

Connecticut voters give Rell a 60 - 29 percent favorability. Bysiewicz gets a 43 - 11 percent favorability, with 44 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion. Lamont gets a 31 - 24 percent favorability, with 43 percent who don't know enough about him.

For other Democratic contenders, 67 percent to 92 percent of voters don't know enough about them to form an opinion.

Looking at Rell's characteristics, Connecticut voters say:
  • 69 - 27 percent that she has strong leadership qualities;
  • 76 - 16 percent that she is honest and trustworthy;
  • 54 - 38 percent that she shares their views on issues important to them;
Ethics in state government have gotten better since Rell became Governor, 39 percent say, while 12 percent say they've gotten worse and 48 percent say there's been no change.

Only 33 percent of Connecticut voters have heard or read "a lot" or "some" about investigations into the Rell administration's hiring of a university professor supposedly to streamline state government.

Of this 33 percent, 48 percent feel taxpayer funds were misused to provide Rell political advice, while 36 percent do not believe that.

Also of the 33 percent, only 25 percent say this controversy is a major concern, while 53 percent say it's a minor concern and 22 percent say it's no concern at all.

"Not many voters know about the controversy surrounding the Rell administration's hiring of a professor as a consultant, and few of those who know seem to care," Schwartz said. "Perhaps the issue is too complicated. This is not your typical government corruption case.

"Some bad news for Rell: most voters say ethics in the state government has stayed the same or gotten worse on her watch. And since she took office on the heels of John Rowland's conviction, one would hope that ethics would get better.

From November 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,236 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 474 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont, Dan Malloy, Susan Bysiewicz, Gary LeBeau, Rudy Marconi and Jim Amann, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Lamont               23%
Malloy                9
Bysiewicz            26
LeBeau                2
Marconi               1
Amann                 3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2
DK/NA                33
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont, Dan Malloy, Susan Bysiewicz, Gary LeBeau, Rudy Marconi and Jim Amann, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
                     Nov 10  Feb 10
                     2009    2009
 
Lamont               23      na
Malloy                9      12
Bysiewicz            26      44
LeBeau                2      na
Marconi               1      na
Amann                 3       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2
DK/NA                33      36
 
 
4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               33%     5%    66%    19%    31%    36%
Rell                 52     92     20     63     57     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                12      3     11     16     10     15
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Malloy               28%    37%    27%    34%    40%
Rell                 60     49     52     51     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      1      2      1
DK/NA                10     13     20     12     12
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Nov 10  Feb 10
                     2009    2009
 
Malloy               33      26
Rell                 52      58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1
DK/NA                12      14
 
 
5. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Bysiewicz            40%     5%    74%    26%    35%    45%
Rell                 46     91     12     56     52     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      1      -      -      1
DK/NA                12      3     13     16     11     13
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Bysiewicz            28%    49%    34%    41%    50%
Rell                 59     40     52     45     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                14     10     11     13     12
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Nov 10  Feb 10
                     2009    2009
 
Bysiewicz            40      32
Rell                 46      53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       1
DK/NA                12      14
 
 
6. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Lamont               33%     3%    62%    23%    32%    34%
Rell                 53     94     22     62     56     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                12      2     14     13     10     14
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Lamont               29%    36%    32%    31%    39%
Rell                 59     49     56     52     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      3
DK/NA                11     14     11     13      9
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Jodi Rell favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            60%    85%    36%    70%    59%    60%
Unfavorable          29      6     51     18     28     30
Hvn't hrd enough      8      8      9      7      9      6
REFUSED               4      1      4      4      4      3
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Favorable            72%    53%    59%    57%    52%
Unfavorable          19     34     32     29     39
Hvn't hrd enough      6      7      5     11      5
REFUSED               2      6      4      3      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jodi Rell favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Nov 10  Feb 10
                     2009    2009
 
Favorable            60      70
Unfavorable          29      17
Hvn't hrd enough      8      10
REFUSED               4       3
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            43%    26%    55%    41%    38%    49%
Unfavorable          11     27      3     12     14      8
Hvn't hrd enough     44     46     42     46     47     42
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      -      1
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Favorable            22%    59%    37%    46%    55%
Unfavorable           9     11     35     11      9
Hvn't hrd enough     69     28     27     43     35
REFUSED               -      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Nov 10  Feb 10
                     2009    2009
 
Favorable            43      40
Unfavorable          11      12
Hvn't hrd enough     44      48
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Jim Amann favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             7%     3%     9%     6%     9%     5%
Unfavorable           8     13      5      9      9      7
Hvn't hrd enough     84     83     85     84     81     87
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Favorable             5%     7%     1%    14%     2%
Unfavorable           6      9      9     10      4
Hvn't hrd enough     88     82     90     76     93
REFUSED               1      1      -      -      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jim Amann favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Nov 10  Feb 10
                     2009    2009
 
Favorable             7       7
Unfavorable           8      13
Hvn't hrd enough     84      79
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            21%     7%    32%    16%    23%    18%
Unfavorable          10     16      3     14     13      8
Hvn't hrd enough     67     75     63     69     63     71
REFUSED               2      2      1      1      1      3
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Favorable            30%    18%    30%    16%    14%
Unfavorable          11      6      8     14     11
Hvn't hrd enough     58     74     61     66     74
REFUSED               -      2      1      4      1
 
TREND:Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Nov 10  Feb 10
                     2009    2009
 
Favorable            21      19
Unfavorable          10      11
Hvn't hrd enough     67      69
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of - Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            31%    12%    45%    27%    33%    29%
Unfavorable          24     45     11     27     30     19
Hvn't hrd enough     43     42     42     46     37     49
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      -      3
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Favorable            29%    39%    27%    27%    30%
Unfavorable          23     21     36     29     19
Hvn't hrd enough     48     38     36     41     49
REFUSED               -      2      1      3      1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of - Gary LeBeau favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             4%     2%     7%     2%     4%     4%
Unfavorable           4      1      4      5      4      3
Hvn't hrd enough     91     97     88     92     91     91
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      -      2
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Favorable             2%     7%     -      2%     7%
Unfavorable           5      4      1      3      2
Hvn't hrd enough     92     88     99     92     90
REFUSED               -      1      1      3      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of - Rudy Marconi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             5%    10%     5%     4%     8%     3%
Unfavorable           3      1      2      5      4      2
Hvn't hrd enough     92     89     93     91     88     95
REFUSED               -      -      1      -      -      -
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Favorable            14%     -      9%     2%     2%
Unfavorable           2      2      -      6      1
Hvn't hrd enough     84     97     90     92     97
REFUSED               -      1      1      1      -
 
 
28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              64%    86%    47%    68%    67%    61%
Disapprove           30     11     46     25     27     34
DK/NA                 6      3      6      7      7      5
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Approve              77%    57%    72%    62%    53%
Disapprove           17     39     25     30     43
DK/NA                 6      5      3      8      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as governor?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 10  Sep 16  Jul 22  May 27  Apr 2   Jan 13  Sep 16
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2005    2009
 
Approve              64      59      65      73      72      83      59
Disapprove           30      34      30      20      22       3      34
DK/NA                 6       7       5       7       6      14       7
 
 
29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              33%    35%    37%    30%    30%    35%
Disapprove           54     57     49     56     61     48
DK/NA                13      8     14     14     10     16
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Approve              35%    29%    31%    29%    41%
Disapprove           51     62     49     54     51
DK/NA                15      9     20     16      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 10  Sep 16  Jul 22  May 9   Feb 15  Jun 3   Jul 31
                     2009    2009    2009    2007    2007    2004    2003
 
Approve              33      35      39      45      47      48      29
Disapprove           54      55      45      38      34      33      57
DK/NA                13      11      16      17      18      19      14
 
 
32. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              78%    70%    84%    79%    77%    80%
Disapprove           13     23      8     12     13     13
DK/NA                 9      7      8      8     10      8
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Approve              79%    85%    65%    79%    71%
Disapprove           13     13     19     10     15
DK/NA                 8      2     15     11     14
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 10  Sep 16  Jul 22  May 27  Mar 10  Mar 10  Nov 23
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2004
 
Approve              78      78      79      78      81      81      71
Disapprove           13      14      13       9      10      10      15
DK/NA                 9       8       8      13       9       9      13
 
 
36. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very satisfied        2%     3%     2%     2%     2%     2%
Smwht satisfied      41     45     44     36     41     41
Smwht dissatisfied   39     35     37     43     39     38
Very dissatisfied    17     17     15     18     17     17
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      -      1
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Very satisfied        4%     2%     4%     1%     3%
Smwht satisfied      52     32     53     37     39
Smwht dissatisfied   30     42     25     47     40
Very dissatisfied    13     23     17     15     19
DK/NA                 1      1      2      -      -
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 10  Sep 16  Jul 22  May 27  Mar 10  Oct 21  Mar 13
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    1998    2003
 
Very Satisfied        2       3       3       3       3      21       4
Smwht Satisfied      41      38      45      53      39      62      32
Smwht Dissatisfied   39      35      35      29      36      14      34
Very Dissatisfied    17      23      17      13      21       3      29
DK/NA                 1       1       1       2       1       -       1
 
 
37. How likely are you to vote to re-elect Jodi Rell for governor in 2010 - do you think you will definitely vote for her, probably vote for her, probably not vote for her, or definitely not vote for her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Definitely           19%    41%     5%    20%    23%    14%
Probably             38     48     22     46     36     39
Probably not         19      6     28     16     18     20
Definitely not       19      1     37     13     18     20
DK/NA                 6      4      8      5      5      7
 
                                          MdlSex Toll,Wndm
                     Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon
 
Definitely           25%    19%    30%    16%     9%
Probably             43     33     29     36     41
Probably not         15     15     20     23     24
Definitely not       12     28     15     17     22
DK/NA                 5      5      7      7      5
 
TREND: How likely are you to vote to re-elect Jodi Rell for governor in 2010, do you think you will definitely vote for her, probably vote for her, probably not vote for her, or definitely not vote for her?
                     Nov 10  Sep 16  Jul 22  Dec 17  Jul 1
                     2009    2009    2009    2008    2008
 
Definitely           19      14      15      14      13
Probably             38      43      43      40      40
Probably not         19      21      19      18      20
Definitely not       19      16      16      13      13
DK/NA                 6       6       8      14      13
 
 
38. Would you say that Jodi Rell has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  69%    82%    59%    72%    69%    69%
No                   27     14     35     25     27     27
DK/NA                 4      4      6      3      5      4
 
TREND: Would you say that Jodi Rell has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Nov 10  Jul 22  Jul 27  Jan 13
                     2009    2009    2005    2005
 
Yes                  69      76      82      79
No                   27      21      11       7
DK/NA                 4       3       7      14
 
 
39. Would you say that Jodi Rell is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  76%    94%    62%    81%    78%    75%
No                   16      2     28     12     13     19
DK/NA                 8      4      9      7     10      6
 
TREND: Would you say that Jodi Rell is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Nov 10  Jul 22  Jan 12  Jul 27  Jan 13
                     2009    2009    2006    2005    2005
 
Yes                  76      84      83      87      82
No                   16      11       7       5       3
DK/NA                 8       5      11       8      14
 
 
40. Would you say that Jodi Rell shares your views on issues that you care about or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  54%    79%    30%    63%    56%    52%
No                   38     13     63     28     36     39
DK/NA                 8      9      7     10      8      9
 
TREND: Would you say that Jodi Rell shares your views on issues that you care about or not?
                     Nov 10  Jul 22  Jul 27  Jan 13
                     2009    2009    2005    2005
 
Yes                  54      53      64      60
No                   38      37      21      15
DK/NA                 8      10      15      25
 
 
41. Since Jodi Rell became governor do you think ethics in state government have gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Better               39%    50%    31%    41%    41%    37%
Worse                12      5     18      9     10     14
The same             48     42     50     48     49     46
DK/NA                 2      3      1      2      1      3
 
TREND: Since Jodi Rell became governor do you think ethics in state government have gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same?
                     Nov 10  Jan 12
                     2009    2006
 
Better               39      60
Worse                12       2
The same             48      32
DK/NA                 2       6
 
 
52. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling the economy?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              53%    76%    39%    55%    56%    51%
Disapprove           39     21     51     38     37     41
DK/NA                 7      3     11      7      7      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling the economy?
                     Nov 10  Jul 22  Mar 10  Feb 10
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              53      54      68      67
Disapprove           39      35      24      23
DK/NA                 7      11       8      10
 
 
54. How much have you heard or read about several investigations that have begun into the Rell administration's hiring of a University of Connecticut professor to oversee a 20,000 dollar project aimed at streamlining state government - a lot, some, not much, or nothing at all?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
A lot                10%     8%    14%     8%    10%     9%
Some                 23     22     21     25     26     20
Not much             25     21     22     28     28     21
Nothing at all       42     48     43     38     35     49
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1
 
 
55. (If heard a lot or some q54) Do you think taxpayer funds for this project were misused to provide Governor Rell with political advice or not?
                     HEARD A LOT OR SOME Q54...............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  48%    20%    65%    46%    41%    56%
No                   36     62     24     37     41     30
DK/NA                16     18     11     17     18     13
 
 
56. (If heard a lot or some q54) Is this controversy a major concern to you, a minor concern, or not a concern at all to you?
                     HEARD A LOT OR SOME Q54...............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Major concern        25%     5%    40%    21%    17%    34%
Minor concern        53     56     52     52     52     54
Not a concern        22     39      7     26     31     12
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -