July 16, 2010 - Blumenthal Up By 17 Points In Connecticut Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dem Tops McMahon On Every Measure

Word format

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, tops Republican wrestling executive Linda McMahon 54 - 37 percent in the U.S. Senate race, and leads her on every voter measure, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 55 - 35 percent Blumenthal lead in a June 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's survey, Blumenthal leads 84 - 11 percent among Democrats and 54 - 35 percent among independent voters, while Republicans back McMahon 77 - 15 percent.

McMahon leads the contest for the August 10 Republican primary with 52 percent of likely voters, followed by 25 percent for Rob Simmons and 13 percent for Peter Schiff. This is the first survey of likely primary voters and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

Blumenthal wins possible general election matchups, 55 - 35 percent over Simmons and 58 - 31 percent over Schiff.

"Connecticut voters still trust Attorney General Richard Blumenthal despite the Vietnam controversy. While Blumenthal remains very popular, Linda McMahon's favorability numbers are only slightly positive," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"Ms. McMahon, however, has the momentum, even if the latest movement is only a small three-point change. She is inching up on Blumenthal. In January, she trailed Blumenthal by 41 points. In every subsequent poll she has cut into his lead and now has cut that lead by 24 points.

"She still has a long way to go, but she has a lot of time and a lot of money."

Connecticut voters approve 72 - 21 percent of the job Blumenthal is doing, continuing his string of plus 70 approval ratings. By a 60 - 28 percent margin, they have a favorable opinion of him. McMahon gets a 43 - 37 percent favorability.

Looking at Blumenthal and McMahon on other measures, voters say:
  • 65 - 24 percent that Blumenthal has the right kind of experience to be a U.S. Senator;
  • 49 - 38 percent that McMahon does not have the right kind of experience;
  • 67 - 24 percent that he cares about their needs and problems;
  • 50 - 34 percent that she cares about their needs and problems;
  • 60 - 28 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 47 - 28 percent that she is honest and trustworthy;
  • 71 - 19 percent that he has strong leadership qualities;
  • 61 - 26 percent that she has strong leadership qualities.
"Linda McMahon's biggest problem with voters is that only 38 percent think she has the right kind of experience to be a U.S. Senator, which tracks very closely with the percentage of the vote she gets against Blumenthal," Dr. Schwartz said. "She has improved her experience number slightly, but she must do more to convince Connecticut voters that her background as an executive in professional wrestling is the right kind of experience."

President Obama's Approval

Connecticut voters approve 50 - 44 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from 53 - 42 percent June 10 and his lowest score ever in the state. Independent voters disapprove 49 - 43 percent, down from a 48 - 46 percent split last month.

Gov. Jodi Rell gets a 60 - 32 percent approval, one of her lowest scores ever.

Voters disapprove 50 - 40 percent of the job Sen. Joe Lieberman is doing and disapprove 54 - 38 percent of the job Sen. Chris Dodd is doing.

From July 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,367 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Also from July 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University conducted a separate survey of 854 Connecticut likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 854 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

5REP. If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, or Peter Schiff? (If undecided q5REP) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McMahon, Simmons, or Schiff? (This table includes "Leaners".)
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
McMahon              52%    50%    54%
Simmons              25     27     22
Schiff               13     15     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                10      8     12


5aREP. (If express choice q5REP) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CHOSE CANDIDATE Q5REP....
                            CAND CHOICE Q5REP.
                     Tot    LM     RS     PS
Made up              56%    60%    52%    47%
Might change         44     39     48     53
DK/NA                 1      1      -      -


6REP. Is your opinion of - Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            46%    51%    42%
Unfavorable          23     25     20
Hvn't hrd enough     29     23     36
REFUSED               2      1      2


7REP. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            65%    66%    65%
Unfavorable          21     22     20
Hvn't hrd enough     10     10     11
REFUSED               3      2      4


8REP. Is your opinion of - Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            26%    30%    22%
Unfavorable           9     10      8
Hvn't hrd enough     63     59     69
REFUSED               1      1      2


THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 1,367 REGISTERED VOTERS

TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Simmons, Linda McMahon and Peter Schiff, for whom would you vote? (Data available upon request back to May 2009)
                     REGISTERED REPS.......................................
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14  Nov 12  Sep 17
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009
McMahon              53      45      49      44      27      17      na
Simmons              20      29      23      34      37      28      43
Schiff                8      13      11       9       4       5       2
Foley                na      na      na      na      na       9       5
Caligiuri            na      na      na      na      na       4       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1       1       2       -       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       2       1       2       2       2
DK/NA                17      12      15      12      28      36      43
 
 
15. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Rob Simmons the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Blumenthal           55%    14%    89%    53%    49%    60%
Simmons              35     79      5     33     44     27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -      2      1      1
DK/NA                 9      6      6     12      6     11
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Rob Simmons the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010
Blumenthal           55      54      55      62      62
Simmons              35      33      28      26      27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       3       1       1
DK/NA                 9      10      13      10      10
 
 
16. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Blumenthal           54%    15%    84%    54%    47%    59%
McMahon              37     77     11     35     45     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      1      2      2      1
DK/NA                 7      5      4      9      5      8
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010
Blumenthal           54      55      56      61      64
McMahon              37      35      31      28      23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1       2       1       1
DK/NA                 7       8      10      10      11
 
 
17. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Peter Schiff the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Blumenthal           58%    20%    89%    58%    50%    64%
Schiff               31     73      4     27     40     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -      2      1      1
DK/NA                 9      6      6     13      8     11
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Peter Schiff the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010
Blumenthal           58      56      59      64      66
Schiff               31      29      25      21      19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       2       2       2       1
DK/NA                 9      12      13      13      14
 
 
18. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Favorable            60%    26%    85%    62%    52%    67%
Unfavorable          28     60      4     27     39     19
Hvn't hrd enough     10     12     11      9      7     13
REFUSED               1      2      -      2      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14  Feb 10
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Favorable            60      59      61      70      74      71
Unfavorable          28      29      29      18      13      13
Hvn't hrd enough     10       9       9      10      12      15
REFUSED               1       2       2       2       1       2
 
 
19. Is your opinion of - Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Favorable            39%    58%    28%    35%    49%    31%
Unfavorable          16      8     21     16     16     15
Hvn't hrd enough     44     33     49     48     35     53
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             Favorable.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14  Sep 17  May 27
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009
Favorable            39      36      36      38      36      41      34
Unfavorable          16      13      14      21      18      11      12
Hvn't hrd enough     44      50      48      40      45      46      53
REFUSED               1       1       2       1       2       2       1
 
 
20. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Favorable            43%    71%    26%    39%    47%    39%
Unfavorable          37     16     51     39     37     37
Hvn't hrd enough     20     12     23     21     16     23
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14  Nov 12
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Favorable            43      38      32      36      24      20
Unfavorable          37      35      39      26      21      13
Hvn't hrd enough     20      25      27      36      54      66
REFUSED               1       1       2       2       1       1
 
 
21. Is your opinion of - Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Favorable            16%    34%     4%    13%    22%    11%
Unfavorable           6      2     10      4      7      5
Hvn't hrd enough     78     64     86     82     71     84
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14  Jul 16  Sep 17
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Favorable            16      15      15      10       8      16       6
Unfavorable           6       5       6       6       5       6       2
Hvn't hrd enough     78      79      78      85      86      78      92
REFUSED               1       1       1       -       1       1       -
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Approve              60%    73%    50%    60%    61%    60%
Disapprove           32     23     40     33     33     31
DK/NA                 8      5     11      7      6      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor? (*Low also 59% Sep 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  Mar 18  Jan 14  Nov 10  Jan 13  Mar 18
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2005    2010*
Approve              60      62      59      64      64      83      59
Disapprove           32      32      34      28      30       3      34
DK/NA                 8       6       8       7       6      14       8
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Approve              28%    24%    41%    23%    20%    35%
Disapprove           58     66     41     65     70     48
DK/NA                14     11     17     12     10     17
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low also 28% Mar 2010)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  Mar 18  Jan 14  Nov 10  Jun 3   Jul 16
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2004    2010*
Approve              28      29      28      30      33      48      28
Disapprove           58      57      59      58      54      33      58
DK/NA                14      14      13      13      13      19      14
 
 
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Approve              40%    51%    33%    41%    44%    37%
Disapprove           50     42     57     51     50     51
DK/NA                 9      7     10      8      7     12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  Mar 17  Jan 14  Nov 12  Sep 21  Dec 17
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2000    2008
Approve              40      41      39      39      49      80      38
Disapprove           50      50      54      54      44      14      54
DK/NA                 9       9       7       6       8       6       8
 
 
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Approve              38%    14%    71%    30%    31%    44%
Disapprove           54     83     20     62     63     45
DK/NA                 8      3     10      8      6     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or dispprove of the way Chris Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  Mar 17  Jan 14  Nov 12  Apr 19  Apr 2
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2001    2009
Approve              38      36      35      36      40      71      33
Disapprove           54      58      58      58      54      16      58
DK/NA                 8       7       7       6       6      13       9
 
 
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Approve              72%    46%    87%    75%    67%    76%
Disapprove           21     47      3     20     28     15
DK/NA                 7      7      9      5      5      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14  Jan 14  Nov 23
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2004
Approve              72      73      76      79      84      84      71
Disapprove           21      22      16      13      11      11      15
DK/NA                 7       6       9       8       5       5      13
 
 
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Approve              50%    16%    86%    43%    44%    55%
Disapprove           44     81      9     49     51     39
DK/NA                 6      3      4      8      6      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*High also 71% Apr 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  Mar 17  Jan 14  Nov 12  May 27  Jul 16
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009*   2010
Approve              50      53      54      55      58      71      50
Disapprove           44      42      42      41      35      22      44
DK/NA                 6       5       4       4       7       7       6
 
 
29. Do you think Richard Blumenthal has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Yes                  65%    42%    84%    66%    62%    68%
No                   24     48      3     26     31     18
DK/NA                11     10     14      9      7     15
 
TREND: Do you think Richard Blumenthal has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Yes                  65      70      76      82
No                   24      21      15      11
DK/NA                11       9       9       8
 
 
30. Would you say that Richard Blumenthal cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Yes                  67%    39%    84%    69%    60%    72%
No                   24     44      9     23     31     18
DK/NA                 9     17      7      8      9     10
 
TREND: Would you say that Richard Blumenthal cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Yes                  67      66      69      80
No                   24      25      21      12
DK/NA                 9       9      10       7
 
 
31. Would you say that Richard Blumenthal is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Yes                  60%    31%    80%    62%    56%    64%
No                   28     54     11     26     37     21
DK/NA                11     15      9     12      6     16
 
TREND: Would you say that Richard Blumenthal is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Yes                  60      60      60      81
No                   28      29      27       9
DK/NA                11      11      13      10
 
 
32. Would you say that Richard Blumenthal has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Yes                  71%    48%    88%    73%    67%    75%
No                   19     40      3     19     26     14
DK/NA                 9     12      9      8      7     11
 
TREND: Would you say that Richard Blumenthal has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Yes                  71      71      73      82
No                   19      20      19       9
DK/NA                 9       9       9       9
 
 
33. Do you think Linda McMahon has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Yes                  38%    62%    26%    34%    40%    36%
No                   49     30     61     52     50     48
DK/NA                13      8     13     14      9     16
 
TREND: Do you think Linda McMahon has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Jan 14  Nov 12
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Yes                  38      34      29      24      25
No                   49      52      52      43      34
DK/NA                13      15      19      33      41
 
 
34. Would you say that Linda McMahon cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Yes                  50%    76%    36%    46%    52%    49%
No                   34     15     46     36     37     31
DK/NA                16      9     18     18     11     20
 
TREND: Would you say that Linda McMahon cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Yes                  50      48      45      37
No                   34      33      33      26
DK/NA                16      19      22      37
 
 
35. Would you say that Linda McMahon is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Yes                  47%    70%    36%    43%    50%    45%
No                   28     16     37     28     32     25
DK/NA                25     14     27     29     18     31
 
TREND: Would you say that Linda McMahon is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Yes                  47      45      45      35
No                   28      26      24      15
DK/NA                25      29      31      50
 
 
36. Would you say that Linda McMahon has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Yes                  61%    78%    51%    59%    60%    62%
No                   26     15     34     26     31     21
DK/NA                13      7     14     16     10     17
 
TREND: Would you say that Linda McMahon has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
Yes                  61      56      54      38
No                   26      22      23      21
DK/NA                13      22      24      41
 
 
37. In general, if a wealthy candidate relies on their own money to fund their political campaign, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
More likely          13%    11%    17%    12%    13%    13%
Less likely          15      8     17     20     18     13
Doesn't make diff    71     81     65     67     69     72
DK/NA                 1      -      2      1      1      2
 
 
38. In general, if a candidate uses public financing to fund their political campaign, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
More likely           7%     3%    12%     7%    10%     5%
Less likely          17     13     15     20     15     17
Doesn't make diff    73     83     70     70     73     73
DK/NA                 3      1      4      2      1      4