August 4, 2010 - McMahon Chops Blumenthal Lead To 10 Pts In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Simmons Gains Ground On McMahon

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Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon trails Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, 50 - 40 percent in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters released today. That's down from a 54 - 37 percent Blumenthal lead July 16.

In a separate survey of Republican likely primary voters, Rob Simmons trails Ms. McMahon 47 - 30 percent, with 14 percent for Peter Schiff. This compares to a 52 - 25 percent McMahon lead in a July 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Only 8 percent of these Republican likely voters are undecided, but 38 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind by the August 10 primary.

McMahon gets a 62 - 27 percent favorability rating from Republican likely voters, while Simmons gets a 49 - 24 percent score, with 25 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Schiff, 61 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.

Looking at McMahon and Simmons, Republican voters say:
  • 41 - 33 percent that McMahon has the best character and personality to be a U.S. Senator;
  • 39 - 33 percent that Simmons is most qualified to be a Senator;
  • 42 - 27 percent that they most agree with McMahon on key issues;
  • 45 - 25 percent that they most agree with McMahon's positions on the economy and jobs;
  • 54 - 25 percent that McMahon is best able to win the general election.
"The McMahon-Blumenthal Senate race in Connecticut could be a real smackdown, as the Republican has the money and momentum, cutting into Blumenthal's lead month to month," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"Independent voters, the largest bloc of voters in Connecticut, are for the first time evenly divided between Linda McMahon, who gets 46 percent, and Richard Blumenthal, who gets 44 percent. Blumenthal led 54 - 35 percent among independent voters just three weeks ago," Dr. Schwartz added.

"But as McMahon focuses on Blumenthal, she better watch her back. Rob Simmons has shown surprising strength among Republican voters after jumping back into the primary contest barely two weeks ago. But it might be too little too late for Simmons.

"Among all voters, McMahon runs better than Simmons against Blumenthal, which is different than our last poll when they ran roughly the same against Blumenthal. Republican primary voters think McMahon has the better character and personality to be a U.S. Senator, but that Simmons is more qualified."

Among registered voters, Blumenthal leads Simmons 54 - 35 percent and tops Schiff 57 - 30 percent.

Democrats back Blumenthal over McMahon 82 - 11 percent while Republicans back McMahon 71 - 18 percent.

"While Blumenthal has lost independent voter support, his support among Republicans is at 18 percent," Schwartz said.

Blumenthal gets a 57 - 30 percent favorability rating from Connecticut voters, compared to 60 - 28 percent July 16.

McMahon's 43 - 37 percent favorability rating is unchanged.

From July 28 - August 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,299 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Also from July 29 - August 2, Quinnipiac University conducted a separate survey of 1,003 Connecticut likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 1,003 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

5REP. If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, or Peter Schiff? (If undecided q5REP) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McMahon, Simmons, or Schiff? (This table includes "Leaners".)
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
McMahon              47%   47%    47%
Simmons              30    31     29
Schiff               14    16     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1     -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -     -      -
DK/NA                 8     6     10

                            Mod/
                     Con    Lib
McMahon              54%    36%
Simmons              23     42
Schiff               15     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -
DK/NA                 7      9

TREND: If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, or Peter Schiff? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McMahon, Simmons, or Schiff? (This table includes "Leaners".)
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 4   Jul 16
                     2010    2010
McMahon              47      52
Simmons              30      25
Schiff               14      13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                 8      10


5aREP. (If express choice q5REP) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CHOSE CANDIDATE Q5REP...
                            CAND CHOICE Q5REP
                     Tot    LM     RS     PS
Made up              61%    63%    60%    59%
Might change         38     36     39     41
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -

TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CAND CHOICE GIVEN
                     Aug 4   Jul 16
                     2010    2010
Made up              61      56
Might change         38      44
DK/NA                 1       1


6REP. Is your opinion of - Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
Favorable            49%   55%    44%
Unfavorable          24    24     23
Hvn't hrd enough     25    19     30
REFUSED               2     1      3

TREND: Is your opinion of Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 4   Jul 16
                     2010    2010
Favorable            49      46
Unfavorable          24      23
Hvn't hrd enough     25      29
REFUSED               2       2


7REP. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
Favorable            62%   66%    59%
Unfavorable          27    24     30
Hvn't hrd enough      8     8      9
REFUSED               2     2      2

TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 4   Jul 16
                     2010    2010
Favorable            62      65
Unfavorable          27      21
Hvn't hrd enough      8      10
REFUSED               2       3


8REP. Is your opinion of - Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
Favorable            27%   32%    22%
Unfavorable          11    12      9
Hvn't hrd enough     61    55     67
REFUSED               1     1      2

TREND: Is your opinion of Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 4   Jul 16
                     2010    2010
Favorable            27      26
Unfavorable          11       9
Hvn't hrd enough     61      63
REFUSED               1       1


18REP. Which of the following is most important to you in deciding whom to support in the Republican primary for United States Senator - a candidate's personality and character, a candidate's positions on key issues, a candidate's experience and qualifications or a candidate's ability to win the general election in November?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
Personality           6%    7%     6%
Pos on issues        54    52     56
Experience           27    23     30
Ability to win        9    14      4
DK/NA                 4     4      4


19REP. Which Republican candidate do you think has the personality and character best suited to being a United States Senator - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
McMahon              41%   40%    42%
Simmons              33    35     31
Schiff               13    15     11
DK/NA                13    11     16


20REP. Which of the Republican candidates do you think is most qualified to be a United States Senator - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
McMahon              33%   32%    35%
Simmons              39    44     35
Schiff               14    14     13
DK/NA                14    10     17


21REP. Which Republican candidate's positions on key issues do you agree with most - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
McMahon              42%   42%    42%
Simmons              27    29     25
Schiff               16    19     13
DK/NA                15    10     20


22REP. Which Republican candidate's position on the economy and jobs do you agree with most - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
McMahon              45%   43%    47%
Simmons              25    26     24
Schiff               16    19     12
DK/NA                14    12     17


23REP. Which Republican candidate for Senator do you think would be best able to win the general election in November - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
McMahon              54%   58%    50%
Simmons              25    26     24
Schiff                8     9      7
DK/NA                13     8     18


24REP. If Linda McMahon wins the Republican primary for United States Senator, how likely are you to support her in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support her?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
Definitely           57%   61%    54%
Probably             14    14     14
Maybe                13    12     13
Will not support     13    12     15
DK/NA                 3     2      4

                     CAND CHOICE Q5REP
                     LM     RS     PS
Definitely           85%    26%    47%
Probably             11     19     13
Maybe                 2     26     18
Will not support      -     29     21
DK/NA                 1      1      1


25REP. If Rob Simmons wins the Republican primary for United States Senator, how likely are you to support him in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
Definitely           54%   62%    46%
Probably             19    15     22
Maybe                14    11     17
Will not support      9     8      9
DK/NA                 4     3      6

                     CAND CHOICE Q5REP
                     LM     RS     PS
Definitely           48%    76%    44%
Probably             22     14     18
Maybe                17      7     21
Will not support     10      2     16
DK/NA                 3      1      2


26REP. If Peter Schiff wins the Republican primary for United States Senator, how likely are you to support him in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot   Men    Wom
Definitely           44%   52%    36%
Probably             20    19     21
Maybe                20    16     24
Will not support     10     9     12
DK/NA                 5     4      7

                     CAND CHOICE Q5REP
                     LM     RS     PS
Definitely           45%    28%    85%
Probably             22     23      9
Maybe                19     30      5
Will not support     10     15      1
DK/NA                 4      4      -


THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 1,299 REGISTERED VOTERS

12. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Rob Simmons the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Blumenthal           54%    19%    85%    47%    50%    57%
Simmons              35     71      9     38     41     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      4      3      4
DK/NA                 7      8      4     11      7      8
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Rob Simmons the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 4   Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010
Blumenthal           54      55      54      55      62      62
Simmons              35      35      33      28      26      27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1       2       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       1       1       3       1       1
DK/NA                 7       9      10      13      10      10
 
 
13. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Blumenthal           50%    18%    82%    44%    51%    50%
McMahon              40     71     11     46     43     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      3      2      2      3
DK/NA                 7      9      4      8      4     10
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 4   Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010
Blumenthal           50      54      55      56      61      64
McMahon              40      37      35      31      28      23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       1       2       1       1
DK/NA                 7       7       8      10      10      11
 
 
14. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Peter Schiff the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Blumenthal           57%    24%    86%    51%    53%    60%
Schiff               30     64      5     31     38     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      4      5      2      5
DK/NA                 9     11      5     12      6     12
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Peter Schiff the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 4   Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010
Blumenthal           57      58      56      59      64      66
Schiff               30      31      29      25      21      19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       1       1       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       1       2       2       2       1
DK/NA                 9       9      12      13      13      14
 
 
15. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Favorable            57%    31%    81%    52%    54%    60%
Unfavorable          30     55      8     35     36     24
Hvn't hrd enough     12     13     11     11      9     15
REFUSED               1      1      -      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Aug 4   Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14  Feb 10
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Favorable            57      60      59      61      70      74      71
Unfavorable          30      28      29      29      18      13      13
Hvn't hrd enough     12      10       9       9      10      12      15
REFUSED               1       1       2       2       2       1       2
 
 
16. Is your opinion of - Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Favorable            40%    55%    30%    41%    46%    35%
Unfavorable          14     10     20     12     16     13
Hvn't hrd enough     44     33     49     45     37     50
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 4   Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Sep 17  May 27
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009
Favorable            40      39      36      36      38      41      34
Unfavorable          14      16      13      14      21      11      12
Hvn't hrd enough     44      44      50      48      40      46      53
REFUSED               2       1       1       2       1       2       1
 
 
17. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Favorable            43%    69%    20%    49%    42%    44%
Unfavorable          37     18     56     34     42     33
Hvn't hrd enough     17     11     24     15     14     20
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Aug 4   Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Jan 14  Nov 12
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
Favorable            43      43      38      32      36      24      20
Unfavorable          37      37      35      39      26      21      13
Hvn't hrd enough     17      20      25      27      36      54      66
REFUSED               2       1       1       2       2       1       1
 
 
18. Is your opinion of - Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
Favorable            16%    31%     6%    15%    18%    14%
Unfavorable           9      4     12     10     10      8
Hvn't hrd enough     74     64     82     74     71     77
REFUSED               1      2      1      -      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 16% Jul 2010)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 4   Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Mar 17  Aug 4   Sep 17
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010*   2009
Favorable            16      16      15      15      10      16       6
Unfavorable           9       6       5       6       6       9       2
Hvn't hrd enough     74      78      79      78      85      74      92
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       -       1       -