August 9, 2010 - Dem Gov Primary Too Close To Call As Malloy Closes, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; McMahon Up 22 Points In GOP Senate Primary

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The Democratic primary for governor in Connecticut is going down to the wire with businessman Ned Lamont at 45 percent and former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy at 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of Democratic likely primary voters released today. This compares to a 45 - 40 percent Lamont lead August 5. Today, 12 percent remain undecided and 30 percent of those who choose a candidate say they might change their mind.

Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon is pulling away from Rob Simmons and now leads 50 - 28 percent, with 15 percent for Peter Schiff, compared to 47 - 30 percent in an August 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Today, 7 percent are undecided and 30 percent of those who choose a candidate say they might change their mind.

Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele continues his surge among Republican likely primary voters and now trails former ambassador Tom Foley 38 - 30 percent, compared to 41 - 26 percent August 5. Today, Oz Griebel has 17 percent, as 14 percent remain undecided and 47 percent of those who choose a candidate say they might change their mind.

"The Democratic governor's race between Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy is too close to call and the Republican governor's race between Tom Foley and Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele could produce a surprise," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "In the Republican Senate contest, it looks like Rob Simmons would need more than a surprise; he would need a miracle to catch Linda McMahon. But in politics, miracles do happen."

From August 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 664 Connecticut Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 464 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 664 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

1REP. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tom Foley, Mike Fedele, or Oz Griebel? (If undecided q1REP) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Foley, Fedele, or Griebel? (This table includes "Leaners".)
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Foley                38%    43%    33%
Fedele               30     27     33
Griebel              17     18     16
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                14     12     17


1aREP. (If express choice q1REP) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1REP...
                            CAND CHOICE Q1REP
                     Tot    TF     MF     OG
Made up              53%    50%    53%    58%
Might change         47     50     46     41
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1


2REP. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            45%    49%    40%
Unfavorable          34     32     36
Hvn't hrd enough     18     16     19
REFUSED               4      3      5


3REP. Is your opinion of - Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            39%    41%    37%
Unfavorable          27     26     28
Hvn't hrd enough     29     27     31
REFUSED               5      6      3


4REP. Is your opinion of - Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            26%    27%    24%
Unfavorable           8      8      8
Hvn't hrd enough     64     62     66
REFUSED               2      2      2


5REP. If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, or Peter Schiff? (If undecided q5REP) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McMahon, Simmons, or Schiff? (This table includes "Leaners".)
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
McMahon              50%    47%    53%
Simmons              28     29     26
Schiff               15     18     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      5      9


5aREP. (If express choice q5REP) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CHOSE CANDIDATE Q5REP...
                            CAND CHOICE Q5REP
                     Tot    LM     RS     PS
Made up              70%    74%    68%    58%
Might change         30     26     32     42
DK/NA                 -      1      -      -


6REP. Is your opinion of - Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            50%    50%    49%
Unfavorable          28     31     23
Hvn't hrd enough     20     17     24
REFUSED               3      2      4


7REP. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            64%    64%    64%
Unfavorable          27     26     27
Hvn't hrd enough      6      6      6
REFUSED               3      3      3


8REP. Is your opinion of - Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            31%    38%    24%
Unfavorable          16     19     12
Hvn't hrd enough     51     41     62
REFUSED               2      1      2


THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 464 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS

1DEM. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Malloy or Ned Lamont? (If undecided q1DEM) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Malloy or Lamont? (This table includes "Leaners".)
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Malloy               42%    38%    44%
Lamont               45     48     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                12     13     11


1aDEM. (If express choice q1DEM) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1DEM....
                            CAND CHOICE Q1DEM
                     Tot    DM     NL
Made up              69%    71%    67%
Might change         30     28     31
DK/NA                 1      1      2


2DEM. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            57%    54%    58%
Unfavorable          20     22     19
Hvn't hrd enough     19     18     19
REFUSED               5      5      4


3DEM. Is your opinion of - Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            62%    66%    58%
Unfavorable          23     22     24
Hvn't hrd enough     12      8     15
REFUSED               3      4      2
REFUSED               3      4      2