September 15, 2010 - Malloy Leads Foley In Connecticut Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; More See Democrat As Candidate Of Change

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Fueled by the Democrats' big voter registration lead, former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy leads former ambassador Tom Foley, the Republican, 50 - 41 percent among likely voters in the Connecticut Governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

But 8 percent are undecided and 26 percent of those who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University's first general election likely voter survey in Connecticut in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

In today's survey, conducted by telephone with live interviewers, Malloy leads 86 - 8 percent among Democrats, while Foley leads 83 - 14 percent among Republicans. Independent voters split 42 - 42 percent. Malloy leads 53 - 38 percent among women and 48 - 43 percent among men.

Among those backing Malloy, 17 percent say their vote is mainly against Foley, while 72 percent say they mainly are pro-Malloy. Foley backers are 28 percent anti-Malloy and 60 percent pro-Foley.

"The races for Governor and U.S. Senate in Connecticut are both in play, with the Democrats holding on to single-digits leads," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"The big difference between the Governor's race and the Senate race is that the gubernatorial candidates are much less well-known than the Senate candidates. Tom Foley and Dan Malloy will have a tough time competing for attention with Linda McMahon and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal."

"As the trailing candidate, getting more attention is especially important for Foley," Dr. Schwartz added.

"Key to deciding the Governor's race are independent voters, especially the 16 percent of independents who are undecided right now."

Connecticut voters have a 46 - 21 percent favorable opinion of Malloy, with 30 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

Foley gets a 34 - 24 percent favorability, with 39 percent who haven't formed an opinion.

"Change" is the top quality voters want in their next Governor as 32 percent say bringing "needed change to Hartford" is the quality that matters most in their vote. Another 23 percent want a candidate who shares their values, followed by 21 percent looking for experience and 20 looking for a candidate who is honest and trustworthy. Malloy leads on all counts as voters say:
  • 51 - 33 percent that Malloy can bring needed change to Hartford;
  • 43 - 36 percent that Foley can bring change;
  • 66 - 19 percent that Malloy has the right experience to be Governor;
  • 53 - 26 percent that Foley has the right experience;
  • 58 - 16 percent that Malloy is honest and trustworthy;
  • 51 - 21 percent that Foley is honest and trustworthy;
  • 51 - 30 percent that Malloy shares their values;
  • 42 - 33 percent that Foley shares their values.
From September 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 875 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               50%    14%    86%    42%    48%    53%
Foley                41     83      8     42     43     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      3      5     15      8      9
 
 
1a. (If express choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY...............
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    DM     TF
 
Made up              74%    73%    75%
Might change         26     27     23
DK/NA                 1      -      2
 
 
2. (If voting for Malloy) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Malloy or against Foley? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY MALLOY VOTERS Q1...............
                     Tot    Rep*   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
For Malloy           72%           74%    69%    72%    72%
Against Foley        17            18     15     16     19
DK/NA                11             8     16     12     10
 
 
3. (If voting for Foley) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Foley or against Malloy? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY FOLEY VOTERS Q1................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem*   Ind    Men    Wom
 
For Foley            60%    71%           51%    61%    59%
Against Malloy       28     22            34     28     28
DK/NA                11      6            15     11     12
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            46%    22%    67%    44%    44%    49%
Unfavorable          21     41      7     21     25     17
Hvn't hrd enough     30     33     25     33     28     32
REFUSED               3      4      1      3      3      2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            34%    62%    18%    31%    37%    32%
Unfavorable          24      8     39     22     26     23
Hvn't hrd enough     39     28     41     45     36     43
REFUSED               2      2      3      2      2      2
DK/NA                 5             3      8      7      4
 
 
25. Which one of these five issues matter most in deciding how you vote for Governor - The economy and jobs, The state budget deficit, Taxes, Health Care or Education?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Economy and jobs     55%    45%    58%    59%    50%    61%
State deficit        16     24     13     14     20     13
Taxes                12     22      5     12     16      8
Health Care           6      4      5      9      5      7
Education             6      2     13      3      7      6
DK/NA                 3      3      6      2      3      4
 
 
26. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for Governor? The candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Hartford or shares your values?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Trustworthy          20%    20%    15%    25%    20%    20%
Experience           21     14     26     21     22     20
Change               32     34     30     33     29     36
Shares values        23     29     24     18     28     17
DK/NA                 4      3      6      4      2      7
 
 
27. Do you think Dan Malloy has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Connecticut or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  66%    50%    83%    61%    68%    64%
No                   19     32      6     21     22     15
DK/NA                15     18     10     18     11     21
 
 
28. Would you say that Dan Malloy is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  58%    39%    72%    57%    57%    58%
No                   16     30      6     17     20     13
DK/NA                26     31     22     26     23     29
 
 
29. Would you say that Dan Malloy shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  51%    24%    75%    48%    50%    52%
No                   30     57      9     30     35     23
DK/NA                19     19     16     22     15     24
 
 
30. Do you think Dan Malloy can bring about needed change to Hartford or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  51%    25%    75%    47%    48%    55%
No                   33     58     11     36     40     26
DK/NA                16     17     14     16     12     19
 
 
31. Do you think Tom Foley has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Connecticut or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  53%    77%    36%    53%    61%    44%
No                   26     11     37     26     23     29
DK/NA                21     12     27     21     16     26
 
 
32. Would you say that Tom Foley is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  51%    69%    37%    51%    55%    45%
No                   21     12     27     22     24     18
DK/NA                28     19     36     27     21     36
 
 
33. Would you say that Tom Foley shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  42%    72%    19%    42%    44%    39%
No                   33     10     51     32     35     31
DK/NA                25     18     30     26     21     31
 
 
34. Do you think Tom Foley can bring about needed change to Hartford or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  43%    69%    22%    46%    46%    41%
No                   36     17     51     35     39     33
DK/NA                21     14     26     20     15     27
 
 
35. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              58%    75%    47%    58%    57%    60%
Disapprove           35     23     45     33     39     30
DK/NA                 7      2      8      9      4     10
 
 
38. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very satisfied        1%     1%     1%     2%     1%     2%
Smwht satisfied      29     20     41     23     29     29
Smwht dissatisfied   44     43     45     45     44     45
Very dissatisfied    26     36     14     30     27     24
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
39. Would you describe the state of Connecticut's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Excellent             -      -      -      -      -      -
Good                 15     12     19     13     15     15
Not so good          52     45     57     52     50     54
Poor                 32     41     22     35     34     30
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      -      1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                6
 
 
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