September 28, 2010 - Angry Voters Push McMahon Closer In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; But Most Voters Say Her Ads Are Annoying

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Propelled by Connecticut likely voters who say they are "angry" with government, former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, the Republican U.S. Senate candidate, is closing in on Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, and now trails just 49 - 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 51 - 45 percent Blumenthal lead in a September 14 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, conducted by live interviewers.

In today's survey, 4 percent are undecided and 9 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. Blumenthal leads 89 - 9 percent among Democrats. McMahon leads 80 - 16 percent among Republicans. Independent voters shift from 47 - 46 percent for Blumenthal September 14 to 49 - 44 percent for McMahon today. In a gender reversal, women back Blumenthal 56 - 39 percent while men back McMahon 52 - 44 percent.

The 33 percent of likely voters who say they are "angry" with the federal government support McMahon 78 - 20 percent.

"With five weeks to go, the Connecticut Senate race is very close. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is ahead by only a statistically insignificant 3 points. Blumenthal has to be concerned about Linda McMahon's momentum. He can hear her footsteps as she closes in on him," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"McMahon clearly is capitalizing on the anger that one-third of voters are feeling toward the federal government." Quinnipiac University Poll/September 28, 2010 - page 2

"But McMahon has to be concerned that voters are still divided on her," Dr. Schwartz added. "There continues to be a big gender gap, as we've seen in other states such a New York and Pennsylvania. Women are going with the Democrat and men are siding with the Republican.

"Usually debates don't make much of a difference, but in a race this close next month's debates could be a game changer."

Connecticut likely voters approve 68 - 29 percent of the job Blumenthal is doing as attorney general and have a 51 - 41 percent favorable opinion of him.

McMahon gets a split 42 - 43 percent favorability.

Connecticut likely voters disapprove 51 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing.

Offered four choices to describe their feelings about the federal government:
  • 2 percent say enthusiastic;
  • 21 percent say satisfied;
  • 43 percent say dissatisfied;
  • 33 percent say angry.
Of the 95 percent of Connecticut likely voters who have seen McMahon TV ads, 56 percent find them annoying and 40 percent find them informative. Among all voters, 54 percent say McMahon's TV, radio and direct mail advertising is excessive, while 37 percent say it is about right.

Of the 87 percent who have seen Blumenthal TV ads, 54 percent find them informative and 42 percent find them annoying. Blumenthal's advertising has been about right, 49 percent say, while 33 percent say he hasn't advertised enough and 11 percent call it excessive.

"Linda McMahon has spent about $22 million on her campaign, but is it overkill? A majority of voters say that it has been excessive. In contrast, many Democrats feel that Blumenthal hasn't been doing enough on the advertising front," Schwartz said.

"As McMahon has flooded the airwaves, many voters are saying, 'Enough already!'"

From September 21 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,083 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582- 5201, or follow us on Twitter.

6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                                Angry with
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom     Fed GovQ32
 
Blumenthal           49%    16%    89%    44%    44%    56%     20%
McMahon              46     80      9     49     52     39      78
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -       -
DK/NA                 4      4      1      6      4      4       1
 
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010
 
Blumenthal           49      51
McMahon              46      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                 4       3
 
 
6a. (If candidate choice q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                            CAND CHOICE Q6
                     Tot    RB     LM
 
Made up              91%    91%    90%
Might change          9      9      9
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
TREND: (If candidate choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                            CAND CHOICE Q6..
 
                     Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010
Made up              91        89
Might change          9        11
DK/NA                 -
 
 
7. (If Blumenthal voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Blumenthal or against McMahon? (*Subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY BLUMENTHAL VOTERS..............
                     Tot    *Rep    Dem   Ind    Men    Wom
 
For Blumenthal       75%           79%    66%    74%    75%
Against McMahon      21            16     33     22     20
DK/NA                 4             5      2      4      4
 
TREND:(If voting for Blumenthal) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Blumenthal or against McMahon? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010
 
For Blumenthal       75      73%
Against McMahon      21      22
DK/NA                 4       5
 
 
8. (If McMahon voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for McMahon or against Blumenthal? (*Subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY McMAHON VOTERS.................
                     Tot    Rep    *Dem   Ind    Men    Wom
 
For McMahon          52%    58%           49%    47%    58%
Against Blumenthal   44     38            47     50     34
DK/NA                 5      5             5      3      7
 
TREND: (If voting for McMahon) Is your vote for Senator mainly for McMahon or against Blumenthal? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010
 
For McMahon          52      53
Against Blumenthal   44      42
DK/NA                 5       6
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            51%    22%    85%    46%    44%    58%
Unfavorable          41     71      8     45     47     34
Hvn't hrd enough      6      4      6      5      7      5
REFUSED               2      2      -      4      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            51      55
Unfavorable          41      39
Hvn't hrd enough      6       4
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            42%    76%    13%    43%    46%    38%
Unfavorable          43     14     69     46     39     47
Hvn't hrd enough     14     10     18     10     14     14
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            42      45
Unfavorable          43      41
Hvn't hrd enough     14      13
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
11. Have you seen any of Linda McMahon's television advertisements for this year's election for United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  95%    98%    95%    95%    96%    95%
No                    4      2      4      5      4      4
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
12. (If seen ads) From what you have seen of Linda McMahon's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(HAVE SEEN ADS Q11)......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Informative          40%    65%    14%    41%    43%    36%
Annoying             56     29     84     56     53     60
DK/NA                 4      6      2      3      3      4
 
 
13. Have you received any mail from Linda McMahon's campaign for United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  68%    82%    54%    72%    70%    66%
No                   28     16     41     24     25     31
DK/NA                 4      2      5      5      5      3
 
 
14. (If received mail) From what you have seen of Linda McMahon's campaign mailings, are they more informative or more annoying?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(HAVE RECEIVED MAIL Q13).
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Informative          44%    65%    18%    41%    47%    40%
Annoying             48     27     76     52     46     52
DK/NA                 8      7      7      7      7      8
 
 
15. Thinking about the McMahon campaign's amount of advertising on television, radio, and through mail, do you think Linda McMahon's campaign advertising has been excessive, just about right, or not enough?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Excessive            54%    38%    73%    54%    49%    60%
About right          37     58     15     36     44     29
Not enough            5      3      7      4      3      7
DK/NA                 4      2      4      5      4      4
 
 
16. Have you seen any of Richard Blumenthal's television advertisements for this year's election for United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  87%    89%    86%    89%    87%    88%
No                   12     10     13     10     13     11
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1
 
 
17. (If seen ads) From what you have seen of Richard Blumenthal's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(HAVE SEEN ADS Q16)......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Informative          54%    31%    78%    54%    50%    59%
Annoying             42     67     18     41     46     37
DK/NA                 4      2      4      5      4      4
 
 
18. Have you received any mail from Richard Blumenthal's campaign for United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  30%    29%    37%    28%    28%    32%
No                   64     69     57     63     66     63
DK/NA                 6      3      6      9      6      5
 
 
19. (If received mail) From what you have seen of Richard Blumenthal's campaign mailings, are they more informative or more annoying?
                     LIKELY VOTERS(HAVE RECEIVED MAIL Q18).
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Informative          57%    39%    77%    49%    57%    56%
Annoying             33     50     13     41     31     35
DK/NA                11     11     10     10     12      9
 
 
20. Thinking about the Blumenthal campaign's amount of advertising on television, radio, and through mail, do you think Richard Blumenthal's campaign advertising has been excessive, just about right, or not enough?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Excessive            11%    20%     4%    11%    13%     9%
About right          49     47     47     51     49     49
Not enough           33     24     45     32     31     35
DK/NA                 7     10      4      7      7      7
 
 
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              68%    47%    90%    65%    64%    72%
Disapprove           29     49      9     30     33     23
DK/NA                 4      4      1      6      3      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010
 
Approve              68      70
Disapprove           29      26
DK/NA                 4       4
 
 
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              45%     8%    83%    38%    38%    52%
Disapprove           51     90     13     56     57     44
DK/NA                 4      2      4      6      5      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010
 
Approve              45      45
Disapprove           51      52
DK/NA                 4       3
 
 
28. Is your opinion of - Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            65%    37%    93%    63%    59%    72%
Unfavorable          30     58      4     31     35     23
Hvn't hrd enough      2      1      2      3      2      2
REFUSED               3      4      1      4      3      3
 
 
29. Is your opinion of - Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            30%    53%     5%    34%    33%    26%
Unfavorable          57     26     91     52     53     63
Hvn't hrd enough     10     18      4     10     11      8
REFUSED               3      3      1      4      3      3
 
 
30. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            49%     9%    89%    43%    42%    56%
Unfavorable          48     89      9     51     55     40
Hvn't hrd enough      1      1      1      2      -      2
REFUSED               2      1      1      4      2      2
 
 
31. Is your opinion of - the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            37%    66%     6%    41%    43%    30%
Unfavorable          37     11     68     33     31     44
Hvn't hrd enough     23     21     26     20     23     24
REFUSED               2      1      -      5      3      2
 
 
32. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Enthusiastic          2%     -      5%     1%     1%     3%
Satisfied            21      7     36     20     19     23
Dissatisfied         43     40     43     42     44     41
Angry                33     52     14     36     35     31
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1