September 29, 2010 - Foley Closes In On Malloy In Connecticut Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Independent Voters Shift To Republican

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Fueled by a shift among independent Connecticut likely voters, Republican candidate for governor Tom Foley now has 42 percent to Democrat Dan Malloy's 45 percent, making the race too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Malloy lead in a September 15 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, conducted by live interviewers.

In today's survey, 12 percent of likely voters are undecided and 22 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. Malloy leads 86 - 8 percent among Democrats. Foley leads 82 - 9 percent among Republicans. Independent voters shift from a 42 - 42 percent split September 15 to 44 - 38 percent for Foley today. Women back the Democrat 52 - 34 percent while men back the Republican 49 - 38 percent.

Offered four choices to describe their feelings about Connecticut government:
  • 1 percent say enthusiastic;
  • 33 percent say satisfied;
  • 47 percent say dissatisfied;
  • 18 percent say angry.
Voters who say they are "angry" with state government support Foley 60 - 29 percent.

"Ever since the popular Republican Governor Jodi Rell decided not to seek reelection, Democrats have been very excited about their prospects of winning this open seat in blue Connecticut. Yet despite a bruising primary victory, Republican businessman Tom Foley has made this a very tight race with Democrat Dan Malloy," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. Quinnipiac University Poll/September 29, 2010 - page 2

"Like Republican U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon, Foley has been capitalizing on the anti-government feeling. Also, both McMahon and Foley have been gaining due to the support of independent voters," Dr. Schwartz added.

"Similar to the Senate race, there is a big gender gap with women backing Malloy and men backing Foley.

"The last time there was a Connecticut governor's race this tight was 16 years ago when there was an open seat and Republican John Rowland beat Democrat William Curry by just 3 points.

"With about a third of voters still persuadable, the upcoming debates could be decisive."

Connecticut likely voters have a 39 - 27 percent favorable opinion of Malloy, with 31 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Foley gets a 34 - 25 percent favorability, with 36 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Despite their dissatisfaction and anger with Connecticut government, likely voters approve 59 - 33 percent of the job Gov. Jodi Rell is doing.

The 79 percent of likely voters who have seen Foley's TV ads split 45 - 46 percent on whether they are informative or annoying.

Malloy does only slightly better as 80 percent of voters have seen his ads and 49 percent find them informative while 43 percent find them annoying.

From September 21 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,083 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582- 5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? This table includes "Leaners".
                                 
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                                Angry with
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom     State GovQ33
 
Malloy               45%     9%    86%    38%    38%    52%     29%
Foley                42     82      8     44     49     34      60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      1      2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -       -
DK/NA                12      8      5     17     12     12      11
 
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? (This table includes Leaners.)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010
 
Malloy               45      50
Foley                42      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                12       8
 
 
1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    DM     TF
 
Made up              76%    74%    78%
Might change         22     25     20
DK/NA                 1      1      2
 
TREND: (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010
 
Made up              76      74
Might change         22      26
DK/NA                 1       1
 
 
2. (If Malloy voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Malloy or against Foley? (*Subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY MALLOY VOTERS..................
                     Tot    Rep*   Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
For Malloy           73%           76%    73%    73%    73%
Against Foley        22            20     21     21     23
DK/NA                 5             5      5      6      4
 
TREND: (If Malloy voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Malloy or against Foley? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY MALLOY VOTERS
                     Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010
 
For Malloy           73      72
Against Foley        22      17
DK/NA                 5      11
 
 
3. (If Foley voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Foley or against Malloy? (*Subgroup not large enough to report)
                     LIKELY FOLEY VOTERS...................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem*    Ind    Men    Wom
 
For Foley            60%    68%           52%    58%    62%
Against Malloy       30     21            37     30     30
DK/NA                10     11            11     12      8
 
TREND: (If Foley voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Foley or against Malloy?
                     LIKELY FOLEY VOTERS
                     Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010
 
For Foley            60      60
Against Malloy       30      28
DK/NA                10      11
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%    17%    67%    34%    32%    47%
Unfavorable          27     49      7     28     33     20
Hvn't hrd enough     31     32     24     36     32     31
REFUSED               3      2      2      2      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            39      46
Unfavorable          27      21
Hvn't hrd enough     31      30
REFUSED               3       3
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            34%    62%    17%    30%    36%    30%
Unfavorable          25     12     40     23     23     27
Hvn't hrd enough     36     25     38     42     34     39
REFUSED               6      2      6      4      7      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            34      34
Unfavorable          25      24
Hvn't hrd enough     36      39
REFUSED               6       2
 
 
21. Have you seen any of Tom Foley's television advertisements for this year's election for Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  79%    78%    82%    81%    77%    81%
No                   19     19     16     17     21     17
DK/NA                 2      4      2      2      3      2
 
 
22. (If seen ads) From what you have seen of Tom Foley's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying?
                     LIKELY VOTERS (HAVE SEEN ADS Q21)......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Informative          45%    64%    33%    44%    48%    42%
Annoying             46     32     59     45     44     49
DK/NA                 8      4      8     11      8      9
 
 
23. Have you seen any of Dan Malloy's television advertisements for this year's election for governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  80%    77%    84%    81%    77%    82%
No                   18     18     14     18     20     15
DK/NA                 2      5      2      1      2      3
 
 
24. (If seen ads) From what you have seen of Dan Malloy's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying?
                     LIKELY VOTERS (HAVE SEEN ADS Q23)......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Informative          49%    41%    61%    44%    50%    47%
Annoying             43     53     31     47     41     45
DK/NA                 8      6      9      9      9      8
 
 
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              59%    70%    46%    62%    57%    61%
Disapprove           33     26     43     30     37     29
DK/NA                 7      4     11      8      6     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010
 
Approve              59      58
Disapprove           33      35
DK/NA                 7       7
 
 
33. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the state government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Enthusiastic          1%     1%     -      -      -      1%
Satisfied            33     29     42     28     31     36
Dissatisfied         47     49     42     51     48     46
Angry                18     20     13     20     19     16
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      1