October 26, 2010 - Blumenthal Up 12 Points In Connecticut Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Governor's Race Close As Malloy Leads By 5 Points

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Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democratic candidate in the U.S. Senate race, leads Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon 54 - 42 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is virtually unchanged from a 54 - 43 percent Blumenthal lead in an October 14 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.

In today's survey, 3 percent are undecided and 6 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. Blumenthal leads 86 -12 percent among Democrats and 56 - 40 percent among independent voters while McMahon is ahead 85 - 10 percent among Republicans.

Women back Blumenthal 61 - 35 percent. Men split, with 49 percent for McMahon and 47 percent for Blumenthal.

"The vote for Connecticut governor and senator is solidifying. There has been little movement in either race in the last two weeks," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"Linda McMahon has tried to raise Attorney General Richard Blumenthal's negatives over the last several weeks, but she hasn't been successful. He remains popular, but McMahon's own negatives have risen above 50 percent. One has to wonder if over the last few weeks McMahon would have been better off spending more of her millions on positive ads."

By a 55 - 39 percent margin, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal.

McMahon gets a negative 43 - 51 percent favorability, down from a split 46 - 46 percent favorability October 14.

Governor's Race

In the Connecticut governor's race, Democrat Dan Malloy leads Republican Tom Foley 48 - 43 percent among likely voters. This compares to Malloy's 49 - 42 percent lead October 15.

Another 7 percent are undecided and 11 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind in the next week.

In today's results, Malloy leads 80 - 9 percent among Democrats while Foley takes Republicans 90 - 7 percent. Independent voters back Malloy 50 - 41 percent.

Men split with 46 percent for Foley and 45 percent for Malloy, while women back the Democrat 52 - 41 percent.

Malloy gets a 47 - 34 percent favorability from Connecticut likely voters, compared to Foley's 45 - 33 percent favorability.

"Throughout the fall campaign Democrat Dan Malloy's share of the vote has been between 45 and 50 percent, while Republican Tom Foley's has been stuck between 41 and 43 percent," Dr. Schwartz added.

"While both Democrats remain ahead, Blumenthal is in a stronger position than Malloy. Malloy has a slight lead while Blumenthal has a comfortable lead."

From October 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 702 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               48%     7%    80%    50%    45%    52%
Foley                43     90      9     41     46     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      4      1      3      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      3      8      8      6      8
 
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided)If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 15  Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Malloy               48      49      45      50
Foley                43      42      42      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       7      12       8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    DM     TF
 
Made up              89%    88%    89%
Might change         11     12     10
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            47%    19%    67%    49%    47%    46%
Unfavorable          34     61     15     32     38     31
Hvn't hrd enough     17     17     17     17     15     19
REFUSED               2      3      1      3      1      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 15  Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            47      47      39      46
Unfavorable          34      29      27      21
Hvn't hrd enough     17      21      31      30
REFUSED               2       3       3       3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            45%    82%    17%    43%    48%    40%
Unfavorable          33      8     55     31     32     35
Hvn't hrd enough     19      8     24     22     18     20
REFUSED               4      3      4      3      3      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 15  Sep 29  Sep 15
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            45      41      34      34
Unfavorable          33      33      25      24
Hvn't hrd enough     19      22      36      39
REFUSED               4       4       6       2
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Blumenthal           54%    10%    86%    56%    47%    61%
McMahon              42     85     12     40     49     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      5      1      4      3      4
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? (This table includes Leaners)
                    LIKELY VOTERS.................
                    Oct 26  Oct 14  Sep 28  Sep 14
                    2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Blumenthal          54      54      49      51
McMahon             42      43      46      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)      1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     -       -       -       -
DK/NA                3       3       4       3
 
 
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                            CAND CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    RB     LM
 
Made up              94%    94%    94%
Might change          6      6      6
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            55%    18%    83%    56%    52%    58%
Unfavorable          39     78     10     37     43     35
Hvn't hrd enough      5      3      8      4      4      6
REFUSED               1      1      -      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 14  Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            55      57      51      55
Unfavorable          39      38      41      39
Hvn't hrd enough      5       3       6       4
REFUSED               1       1       2       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            43%    80%    15%    41%    51%    34%
Unfavorable          51     15     77     53     43     60
Hvn't hrd enough      6      4      8      5      6      6
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 26  Oct 14  Sep 28  Sep 14
                     2010    2010    2010    2010
 
Favorable            43      46      42      45
Unfavorable          51      46      43      41
Hvn't hrd enough      6       6      14      13
REFUSED               1       2       1       1