November 1, 2010 - Blumenthal Up 9 Points In Connecticut Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Governor's Race Too Close To Call

Word format

In the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Republican Linda McMahon has narrowed the gap slightly in the last week but still trails State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, 53 - 44 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 54 - 42 percent Blumenthal lead in an October 26 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.

The governor's race is now too close to call, with 48 percent of likely voters for Republican Tom Foley and 45 percent for Democrat Dan Malloy, compared to a small 48 - 43 percent Malloy lead October 26.

In today's Senate survey, Blumenthal leads 93 -6 percent among Democrats while McMahon is ahead 87 - 13 percent among Republicans. Independent voters, who went 56 - 40 percent for Blumenthal last week, now tip 49 - 44 percent for McMahon. Only 3 percent are undecided and 5 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind.

Women back Blumenthal 61 - 36 percent. Men go to McMahon 50 - 46 percent.

"Linda McMahon's mini surge may be too little, too late," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"Independent voters, who have been very volatile in this election season, are shifting back to the Republican candidates in both the Senate and governor's races."

By a 53 - 43 percent margin, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal, compared to 55 - 39 percent last week.

McMahon gets a negative 43 - 50 percent favorability, virtually unchanged from last week.

Governor's Race

In the governor's race, Foley leads 89 - 7 percent among Republicans while Malloy leads 88 - 9 percent among Democrats. Independent voters shift from 50 - 41 percent for Malloy last week to 55 - 33 percent for Foley today. Another 6 percent of likely voters are undecided and 11 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Men back Foley 51 - 43 percent, while women back Malloy 48 - 43 percent.

Malloy gets a split 44 - 41 percent favorability from Connecticut likely voters, compared to 47 - 34 percent last week. Foley's 48 - 34 percent favorability compares to 45 - 33 percent last week.

"The late deciders are breaking for Tom Foley. There has been a big shift among independents in the final week of the campaign toward the Republican," Dr. Schwartz said.

"Dan Malloy's unfavorables have risen to the point where he gets a mixed favorability rating for the first time.

"For Foley to win, he needs to win the independent vote by a substantial margin, which he is now doing for the first time. But this race is too close to call. With 6 percent still undecided there is still room for movement.

"Foley has the numerical lead and the momentum but Malloy still could pull this out."

From October 25 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 930 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               45%     7%    88%    33%    43%    48%
Foley                48     89      9     55     51     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4      2     12      5      8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    DM     TF
 
Made up              89%    89%    89%
Might change         11     11     10
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            44%    13%    79%    33%    42%    46%
Unfavorable          41     75     11     45     46     36
Hvn't hrd enough     11      9      8     17     10     12
REFUSED               4      3      2      4      2      6
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            48%    82%    20%    48%    50%    45%
Unfavorable          34      8     60     29     33     36
Hvn't hrd enough     13      8     14     19     13     14
REFUSED               5      2      7      4      4      5
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Blumenthal           53%    13%    93%    44%    46%    61%
McMahon              44     87      6     49     50     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      1      1      6      4      2
 
 
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                            CAND CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    RB     LM
 
Made up              95%    96%    93%
Might change          5      4      7
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            53%    17%    86%    50%    45%    64%
Unfavorable          43     81     10     47     51     33
Hvn't hrd enough      2      2      3      1      3      2
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            43%    80%    10%    47%    48%    36%
Unfavorable          50     14     82     46     41     60
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      6      4      6      2
REFUSED               4      5      3      4      5      3