September 16, 2011 - Mcmahon Slow Off The Mat In Second Round, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Romney Tops Perry 2-1 But Trails A Floundering Obama

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Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon thumps former U.S. Rep. Chris Shays 50 - 35 percent in an early look at the 2012 Republican primary for the Connecticut U.S. Senate seat, but she trails either of two possible Democratic candidates, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. McMahon leads 54 - 37 percent among Republican men and 47 - 32 percent among women.

In the Democratic Senate primary, U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy leads former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz 36 - 26 percent, with 35 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Murphy leads 43 - 25 percent among men and 31 - 26 percent among women.

In possible 2012 general election matchups:
  • Murphy tops McMahon 49 - 38 percent;
  • Bysiewicz beats McMahon 46 - 38 percent;
  • Murphy beats Shays 43 - 37 percent;
  • Shays gets 42 percent to Bysiewicz' 40 percent.
"While Connecticut has never had a woman United States Senator, there are two formidable women in the running as 2012 promises to be an interesting year on the statewide political scene," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"In the Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy leads former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz by 10 points, but it is very early. There is a lot of room for movement because about a third of Democrats are undecided, reflecting the large percentages who don't have an opinion of either candidate."

"In the Republican primary, Linda McMahon's name recognition advantage over former U.S. Rep. Chris Shays helps give her an early 15 point lead - before she turns on the vaunted McMahon money machine," Dr. Schwartz added.

"McMahon is much better known than Shays, but she doesn't run as well in the general election. And not many voters have a good opinion of her."

By a 45 - 38 percent margin, voters have an unfavorable opinion of McMahon. Favorability ratings for other candidates are:
  • 41 - 14 percent favorable for Shays with 44 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • 39 - 27 percent favorable for Bysiewicz with 33 percent who don't know enough;
  • 38 - 16 percent favorable for Murphy with 45 percent who don't know enough.
Connecticut voters are divided 48 - 48 percent on President Barack Obama's job approval, down from 53 - 44 percent approval June 15 and the president's lowest grade ever in the state. There is a large gender gap as women approve 52 - 42 percent while men disapprove 54 - 43 percent. By a slim 49 - 46 percent, voters say the president deserves reelection.

Among Republicans, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the pack with 37 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 19 percent, Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann at 8 percent and no other candidate above 4 percent.

In 2012 general election matchups, Obama tops Perry 52 - 33 percent and beats Romney 49 - 36 percent. In both races, the president carries independent voters, 45 - 33 percent over Perry and 41 - 37 percent over Romney.

"President Barack Obama getting only a 48 - 48 percent approval rating in blue Connecticut shows just how far the president has fallen. But despite the president's split approval rating, he still beats the leading Republican contenders," Schwartz said.

From September 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,230 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The survey includes 332 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points and 447 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (Republicans) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS......
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Perry                19%    26%    12%
Palin                 4      3      4
Gingrich              3      3      2
Romney               37     40     33
Bachmann              8      7      9
Santorum              1      2      1
Paul                  3      4      3
Huntsman              2      2      1
Cain                  3      2      4
McCotter              -      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      5
DK/NA                16      9     24
 
 
2. (Republicans) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - Chris Shays and Linda McMahon, for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS......
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Shays                35%    37%    32%
McMahon              50     54     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      -
DK/NA                12      5     20
 
 
3. (Democrats) If the 2012 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - Chris Murphy, Susan Bysiewicz and William Tong, for whom would you vote?
                     DEMOCRATS........
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Murphy               36%    43%    31%
Bysiewicz            26     25     26
Tong                  1      1      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      2
DK/NA                35     29     40
 
 
4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                52%    10%    89%    45%    48%    54%
Perry                33     81      5     33     37     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      4      4      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      1      5      3      2
DK/NA                10      6      4     14      8     12
 
 
5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                49%    11%    86%    41%    46%    52%
Romney               36     81     10     37     42     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2      3      4      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      -      3      2      3
DK/NA                10      7      3     16      7     13
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            50%     8%    84%    44%    46%    53%
Unfavorable          45     88     13     48     50     39
Hvn't hrd enough      3      3      2      5      3      3
REFUSED               3      2      1      3      1      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Sep 16  Dec 17  Mar 27  May 10  Feb 19
                     2011    2008    2008    2007    2007
 
Favorable            50      71      59      51      48
Unfavorable          45      11      24      15      10
Hvn't hrd enough      3      15      15      32      40
REFUSED               3       2       2       1       2
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            34%    64%    21%    31%    42%    27%
Unfavorable          28     11     39     25     28     27
Hvn't hrd enough     36     24     38     41     27     44
REFUSED               2      -      2      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Sep 16  May 10  Feb 19
                     2011    2007    2007
 
Favorable            34      15      13
Unfavorable          28      23      19
Hvn't hrd enough     36      60      67
REFUSED               2       1       1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            16%    41%     5%    14%    20%    13%
Unfavorable          33      8     51     29     37     29
Hvn't hrd enough     51     51     44     56     43     58
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1
 
 
9. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
McMahon              38%    74%    11%    41%    43%    33%
Murphy               49     14     82     43     44     53
SOMEONE ELSE(VOL)     1      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -      1      1      2
DK/NA(VOL)           11     11      7     14     11     12
 
 
10. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
McMahon              38%    75%     9%    43%    43%    34%
Bysiewicz            46     13     79     37     44     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      4      2      3
DK/NA(VOL)           12     11      9     14     10     14
 
 
11. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Shays                37%    78%    11%    37%    42%    32%
Murphy               43      9     77     36     43     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      -      3      2      3
DK/NA(VOL)           17     10     11     22     13     21
 
 
12. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Shays                42%    78%    14%    47%    47%    37%
Bysiewicz            40      8     73     30     38     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      2      1      2
DK/NA(VOL)           16     12     12     20     13     19
 
 
13. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            38%    67%    17%    43%    42%    35%
Unfavorable          45     17     65     41     44     45
Hvn't hrd enough     15     15     17     14     13     17
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (* High also 43% Jul 2010)
                                                             FAVORABLE....
                                                             High    Low
                     Sep 16  Aug 4   Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Aug 4   Nov 12
                     2011    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010*   2009
 
Favorable            38      43      43      38      32      43      20
Unfavorable          45      37      37      35      39      37      13
Hvn't hrd enough     15      17      20      25      27      17      66
REFUSED               2       2       1       1       2       2       1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of - Chris Shays favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%    51%    34%    42%    48%    35%
Unfavorable          14     11     18     10     16     12
Hvn't hrd enough     44     37     47     47     35     52
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      2
 
 
15. Is your opinion of - Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%    12%    63%    33%    36%    42%
Unfavorable          27     51     11     27     30     23
Hvn't hrd enough     33     35     26     39     33     33
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      -      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Sep 16  Jan 21  Nov 10  Feb 10
                     2011    2010    2009    2009
 
Favorable            39      49      43      40
Unfavorable          27      14      11      12
Hvn't hrd enough     33      36      44      48
REFUSED               1       1       1       1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of - Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            38%    17%    58%    35%    38%    38%
Unfavorable          16     34      6     15     21     12
Hvn't hrd enough     45     49     36     49     41     48
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      -      2
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              51%    66%    44%    52%    52%    49%
Disapprove           40     22     46     41     43     37
DK/NA                10     12     10      7      5     14
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 38% Dec 2008)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Sep 16  Jun 15  Mar 09  Jul 16  Jun 10  Sep 21  Mar 09
                     2011    2011    2011    2010    2010    2000    2011*
 
Approve              51      41      38      40      41      80      38
Disapprove           40      45      45      50      50      14      45
DK/NA                10      14      17       9       9       6      17
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              60%    35%    81%    56%    54%    66%
Disapprove           23     46      7     24     33     15
DK/NA                17     19     12     19     13     20
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Sep 16  Jun 15  Mar 09
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              60      54      49
Disapprove           23      25      25
DK/NA                17      21      26
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              48%     9%    79%    43%    43%    52%
Disapprove           48     87     18     51     54     42
DK/NA                 4      4      3      6      3      5
 
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*High also 71% Apr 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Sep 16  Jun 15  Mar 09  Jul 16  Jun 10  May 27  Sep 16
                     2011    2011    2011    2010    2010    2009*   2011
 
Approve              48      53      49      50      53      71      48
Disapprove           48      44      47      44      42      22      48
DK/NA                 4       3       4       6       5       7       4
 
 
23. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes/Deserves         49%    10%    81%    43%    47%    50%
No/Does not          46     89     16     48     50     42
DK/NA                 6      1      3      9      3      8
 
TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Sep 16  Jun 15
                     2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         49      51%
No/Does not          46      43
DK/NA                 6       6
 
 

Demographic Summary