October 10, 2003 - President Bush Stumbles In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Mixed On Same-Sex Unions And Marriage
President George W. Bush's approval rating has dropped to a negative 43 - 53 percent in Connecticut, where he now trails Sen. Joseph Lieberman 53 - 42 percent in a possible presidential matchup, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

President Bush had a narrow 47 - 44 percent lead over Sen. Lieberman in a July 31 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Bush's approval was 54 - 41 percent in that poll. Running Bush against other Democrats shows:
  • Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry edges Bush 48 - 44 percent;
  • Former Gen. Wesley Clark gets 44 percent to Bush's 46 percent, a tie;
  • New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean each get 45 percent to Bush's 47 percent.
"President Bush has a negative job approval rating for the first time in Connecticut. Questions about Iraq and the economy continue to hammer the President's approval rating," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.

"It has been 15 years, since the last time a Republican presidential candidate - named Bush - won in Connecticut. With these new numbers it begins to look tougher for this Bush to match his father's 1988 victory.

"Bush led all of the Democratic candidates in July. Now two are ahead of him and he is in a horse race with the rest."

"It is not surprising that Sen. Lieberman is ahead in the Democratic primary in Connecticut, but his favorite son star continues to dim. In national polls, Lieberman has failed to build strength, and at home his job approval rating has dropped by about 20 points. Almost a third of Connecticut voters disapprove of his running for President," Dr. Schwartz added.

Among Democrats, Sen. Lieberman leads the presidential pack with 33 percent, compared to 37 percent July 31. Dean has 17 percent, followed by Clark and Kerry with 14 percent each and Gephardt with 5 percent. No other Democratic contender breaks 3 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

If Clinton changes her mind and decides to run, she gets 34 percent to Lieberman's 20 percent among Democrats, followed by Dean with 12 percent and Clark and Kerry with 10 percent each. No other Democrat breaks 3 percent.

By a bare 51 - 43 percent majority, Connecticut voters support a law allowing same-sex couples to enter into civil union, giving them many of the legal rights of married couples. Church-goers, voters who attend religious services at least once a week, oppose the measure 59 - 36 percent. Support for allowing same-sex couples to marry drops to 44 - 50 percent, with church-goers opposed 67 - 30 percent.

Homosexual behavior is morally acceptable, 44 percent of Connecticut voters say, while 41 percent say it is morally wrong. Church-goers say 53 - 33 percent that this behavior is morally wrong.

"Connecticut voters are evenly divided on the morality of homosexuality and likewise closely divided on gay unions and gay marriage," Dr. Schwartz said.

From October 1 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,519 Connecticut voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. The survey includes 469 Democrats with a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and the nation as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Oct 10, 2003 43% 53% 4% Jul 31, 2003 54 41 5 May 1, 2003 64 29 7 Mar 14, 2003 49 45 6 Oct 2, 2002 61 32 7 Aug 1, 2002 59 34 7 Jul 31, 2002 59 34 7 May 23, 2002 70 24 6 Feb 14, 2002 79 16 6 Dec 19, 2001 87 10 2 Apr 19, 2001 55 33 12 Feb 21, 2001 49 30 21



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?

                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Oct 10, 2003 54 34 12 Jul 31, 2003 51 33 17 May 1, 2003 53 25 22 Mar 14, 2003 60 28 12 Oct 2, 2002 58 29 13 Aug 1, 2002 64 26 10 Jul 31, 2002 64 26 10 May 23, 2002 65 23 12 Feb 14, 2002 64 21 15 Dec 19, 2001 71 19 10 Apr 19, 2001 71 22 7 Feb 21, 2001 71 20 9 Sep 21, 2000 80 14 6 Jul 20, 2000 74 15 11 Jun 21, 2000 72 14 14 Apr 13, 2000 71 14 14 Feb 18, 2000 73 14 13 Oct 14, 1999 73 16 11 Jun 24, 1999 71 19 10 May 5, 1999 67 19 14 Oct 22, 1998 70 16 14 Oct 2, 1998 71 17 12 Jun 25, 1998 68 16 16 Apr 2, 1998 69 16 15 Feb 19, 1998 69 16 15 Nov 19, 1997 69 17 13 Oct 9, 1997 71 18 11 Jul 15, 1997 72 14 15 Feb 25, 1997 66 18 16 Jul 3, 1996 68 18 14 Mar 27, 1996 66 17 17 Apr 20, 1995 63 19 18 Aug 22, 1994 55 23 22 Jul 19, 1994 58 16 26



TREND: Do you approve or diapprove of the way Christopher Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?

                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Oct 10, 2003 62 20 18 Jul 31, 2003 58 20 22 May 1, 2003 52 16 31 Mar 14, 2003 57 22 21 Oct 2, 2002 58 21 21 Aug 1, 2002 61 20 19 Jul 31, 2002 61 20 19 May 23, 2002 61 18 21 Feb 14, 2002 52 17 31 Dec 19, 2001 63 20 18 Apr 19, 2001 71 16 13 Feb 21, 2001 68 15 16 Sep 21, 2000 66 20 14 Jul 20, 2000 64 24 12 Jun 21, 2000 64 21 14 Apr 13, 2000 63 22 15 Feb 18, 2000 64 21 16 Oct 14, 1999 70 22 8 Jun 24, 1999 65 25 10 May 5, 1999 61 25 14 Nov 2, 1998 (LV) 62 31 7 Oct 22, 1998 62 27 11 Oct 2, 1998 60 27 12 Jun 25, 1998 61 27 11 Apr 2, 1998 60 27 13 Feb 19, 1998 59 30 11 Nov 19, 1997 57 31 12 Oct 9, 1997 56 34 10 Jul 15, 1997 62 27 12 Feb 25, 1997 54 30 16 Jul 3, 1996 56 26 18 Mar 27, 1996 58 30 13 Apr 20, 1995 60 26 15 Aug 22, 1994 56 27 17



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 43% 81% 17% 39% 46% 40% 31% Disapprove 53 17 79 55 51 55 64 DK/NA 4 2 4 6 4 5 5

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 54% 43% 66% 53% 52% 56% 58% Disapprove 34 48 23 34 39 29 30 DK/NA 12 8 12 13 10 14 12

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 62% 50% 73% 64% 59% 66% 68% Disapprove 20 35 10 18 27 14 15 DK/NA 18 14 17 19 14 21 16

6. Now I'm going to name ten Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all ten names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                          
                      Dem 


Lieberman 33% Kerry 14 Gephardt 5 Edwards 3 Dean 17 Sharpton 2 Graham - Moseley-Braun 1 Kucinich - Clark 14 DK/NA 11

7. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                         
                      Dem


Clinton 34% Lieberman 20 Kerry 10 Gephardt 3 Edwards 1 Dean 12 Sharpton 1 Graham - Moseley-Braun - Kucinich 1 Clark 10 DK/NA 8

8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clark 44% 10% 74% 43% 41% 47% 53% Bush 46 86 16 46 52 42 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 3 7 7 4 8 6

9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clinton 45% 7% 77% 43% 36% 54% 54% Bush 47 91 16 46 57 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 4 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 3 1 2 3 2 4 2

10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Lieberman 53% 11% 87% 52% 45% 60% 65% Bush 42 86 10 40 49 35 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 3 2 1 4 2 3 2

11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Kerry 48% 11% 79% 48% 44% 52% 59% Bush 44 86 14 41 50 38 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 2 5 8 4 8 5

12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Gephardt 45% 10% 78% 42% 41% 49% 57% Bush 47 87 14 49 53 42 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 2 5 6 3 6 4

13. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bushthe Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Dean 45% 10% 78% 43% 41% 49% 59% Bush 47 88 14 47 53 41 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 5 1 6 6 3 6 5

14. Christopher Dodd will be up for re-election in 2004. Would you like to see Christopher Dodd re-elected Senator, or would you rather see someone else elected Senator?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes/Dodd 57% 41% 69% 58% 53% 60% 65% No/Someone else 31 46 19 32 37 25 26 DK/NA 12 13 12 10 10 14 9

15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- the economy?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 34% 67% 14% 28% 38% 30% 25% Disapprove 62 30 83 66 60 64 71 DK/NA 4 3 3 6 2 5 4

16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- taxes?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 40% 77% 16% 36% 46% 34% 33% Disapprove 58 21 83 61 50 64 66 DK/NA 3 3 1 3 3 2 2

17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- foreign policy?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 41% 76% 18% 38% 48% 35% 36% Disapprove 56 23 80 58 50 61 62 DK/NA 3 1 2 4 2 3 2

18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- the situation with Iraq?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 41% 75% 20% 37% 49% 35% 34% Disapprove 55 22 77 57 48 61 63 DK/NA 4 3 2 6 3 5 3

19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- the U.S. campaign against terrorism?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 67% 88% 50% 67% 73% 61% 62% Disapprove 29 11 45 29 23 34 36 DK/NA 5 1 6 5 4 6 2

20. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Joseph Lieberman running for President in 2004?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 61% 52% 69% 62% 59% 64% 70% Disapprove 33 42 27 31 35 31 27 DK/NA 6 6 4 7 6 6 4

36. Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to form civil unions, giving them many of the legal rights of married couples?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Support 51% 34% 63% 52% 42% 59% 54% Oppose 43 61 30 41 52 34 41 DK/NA 6 5 7 7 6 7 6

ATTEND SERVICES Weekly Less

Support 36% 58% Oppose 59 35 DK/NA 5 7

37. Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Support 44% 26% 57% 45% 36% 52% 47% Oppose 50 68 38 49 59 43 48 DK/NA 6 6 5 6 6 6 5

ATTEND SERVICES Weekly Less

Support 30% 51% Oppose 67 42 DK/NA 3 6

38. In general, do you personally believe that homosexual behavior is morally acceptable or morally wrong?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Acceptable 44% 31% 54% 47% 36% 51% 45% Wrong 41 57 32 38 51 31 41 DK/NA 15 13 15 15 12 17 14

ATTEND SERVICES Weekly Less

Acceptable 33% 50% Wrong 53 35 DK/NA 15 14

00. ATTEND SERVICES: Would you say you attend religious services every week, almost every week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, or never?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds
WEEKLY:  
Every week            24%     25%     23%     23%     19%     28%     26%
Almost every week     10      13      10       7      10      10      11


LESS: Once/twice a month 14 15 14 13 15 13 15 A few times a year 31 34 28 34 33 29 30 Never 19 12 22 21 21 17 18

DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 1