November 20, 2003 - Dean Closes On Lieberman In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Native Son Also Loses Ground To Bush
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has narrowed the gap and now trails Sen. Joseph Lieberman 28 - 23 percent among Connecticut Democrats, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Lieberman enjoyed a comfortable 33 - 17 percent lead among Democrats in an October 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Following in the Democratic pack in this latest poll are:
  • Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 14 percent;
  • Former Gen. Wesley Clark with 9 percent;
  • Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 8 percent.
No other Democrat tops 3 percent, with 10 percent undecided.

"What we see here is Gov. Dean moving up among Connecticut Democrats, while Sen. Lieberman slips from favor. Connecticut's reaction to Lieberman's Presidential candidacy has been much more negative than when he ran for Vice President," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.

"In September 2000, Lieberman's job approval soared to 80 percent. Now he limps along just above 50 percent. His approval has dropped among his Democratic base and among a group that historically has supported him - independent voters."

Connecticut voters give Lieberman a 52 - 36 percent job approval, compared to 54 - 34 percent October 10. Democrats approve 60 - 26 percent, while Republicans split 44 - 46 percent and independent voters approve 51 - 36 percent.

President George W. Bush's approval is a negative 45 - 50 percent in Connecticut, compared to 43 - 53 percent October 10.

In the Presidential matchup, Lieberman tops Bush 49 - 43 percent in Connecticut, compared to a 53 - 42 percent lead October 10. In other head-to-head matchups:
  • Bush leads Dean 48 - 44 percent;
  • Bush gets 46 percent to Kerry's 47 percent, a tie;
  • Bush beats Gephardt 48 - 43 percent;
  • Bush beats Clark 48 - 42 percent;
  • Bush beats New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 50 - 42 percent.
While Bush runs best against Sen. Clinton, she is the leader among Connecticut Democrats - when her name is added to the choices offered in the poll - with 36 percent, followed by Lieberman with 18 percent, Dean with 15 percent, Kerry with 9 percent, Clark with 7 percent and Gephardt with 5 percent.

"President Bush's big drop in job approval ratings has leveled off in Connecticut and he has gained some ground in head-to-head matchups with the Democrats," Dr. Schwartz said.

From November 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,600 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. The survey includes 509 Democrats with a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and the nation as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Nov 20, 2003 45% 50% 5% Oct 10, 2003 43 53 4 Jul 31, 2003 54 41 5 May 1, 2003 64 29 7 Mar 14, 2003 49 45 6 Oct 2, 2002 61 32 7 Aug 1, 2002 59 34 7 Jul 31, 2002 59 34 7 May 23, 2002 70 24 6 Feb 14, 2002 79 16 6 Dec 19, 2001 87 10 2 Apr 19, 2001 55 33 12 Feb 21, 2001 49 30 21



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?

                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Nov 20, 2003 52% 36% 12% Oct 10, 2003 54 34 12 Jul 31, 2003 51 33 17 May 1, 2003 53 25 22 Mar 14, 2003 60 28 12 Oct 2, 2002 58 29 13 Aug 1, 2002 64 26 10 Jul 31, 2002 64 26 10 May 23, 2002 65 23 12 Feb 14, 2002 64 21 15 Dec 19, 2001 71 19 10 Apr 19, 2001 71 22 7 Feb 21, 2001 71 20 9 Sep 21, 2000 80 14 6 Jul 20, 2000 74 15 11 Jun 21, 2000 72 14 14 Apr 13, 2000 71 14 14 Feb 18, 2000 73 14 13 Oct 14, 1999 73 16 11 Jun 24, 1999 71 19 10 May 5, 1999 67 19 14 Oct 22, 1998 70 16 14 Oct 2, 1998 71 17 12 Jun 25, 1998 68 16 16 Apr 2, 1998 69 16 15 Feb 19, 1998 69 16 15 Nov 19, 1997 69 17 13 Oct 9, 1997 71 18 11 Jul 15, 1997 72 14 15 Feb 25, 1997 66 18 16 Jul 3, 1996 68 18 14 Mar 27, 1996 66 17 17 Apr 20, 1995 63 19 18 Aug 22, 1994 55 23 22 Jul 19, 1994 58 16 26



TREND: Do you approve or diapprove of the way Christopher Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?

                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Nov 20, 2003 60 22 17 Oct 10, 2003 62 20 18 Jul 31, 2003 58 20 22 May 1, 2003 52 16 31 Mar 14, 2003 57 22 21 Oct 2, 2002 58 21 21 Aug 1, 2002 61 20 19 Jul 31, 2002 61 20 19 May 23, 2002 61 18 21 Feb 14, 2002 52 17 31 Dec 19, 2001 63 20 18 Apr 19, 2001 71 16 13 Feb 21, 2001 68 15 16 Sep 21, 2000 66 20 14 Jul 20, 2000 64 24 12 Jun 21, 2000 64 21 14 Apr 13, 2000 63 22 15 Feb 18, 2000 64 21 16 Oct 14, 1999 70 22 8 Jun 24, 1999 65 25 10 May 5, 1999 61 25 14 Nov 2, 1998 (LV) 62 31 7 Oct 22, 1998 62 27 11 Oct 2, 1998 60 27 12 Jun 25, 1998 61 27 11 Apr 2, 1998 60 27 13 Feb 19, 1998 59 30 11 Nov 19, 1997 57 31 12 Oct 9, 1997 56 34 10 Jul 15, 1997 62 27 12 Feb 25, 1997 54 30 16 Jul 3, 1996 56 26 18 Mar 27, 1996 58 30 13 Apr 20, 1995 60 26 15 Aug 22, 1994 56 27 17





TREND: Now I'am going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverand Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.

                      Democrats...........................
                      Nov     Oct     Jul     May     Mar
                      2003    2003    2003    2003    2003
                              
Lieberman             28%     33%     37%     46%     41%
Kerry                 14      14      17      18      18
Gephardt               8       5       8       9       8
Edwards                3       3       3       3       6
Dean                  23      17      17       6       5
Sharpton               1       2       3       5       2
Graham                na       -       2       1       2
Moseley-Braun          3       1       4       1       4
Kucinich               1       -       -       -       1
Clark                  9      14      na      na      na
DK/NA                 10      11      10      11      12




TREND: Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton,Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverand Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.

                      Democrats...........................
                      Nov     Oct     Jul     May     Mar
                      2003    2003    2003    2003    2003
                              
Clinton               36%     34%     33%     31%     30%
Lieberman             18      20      23      35      31
Kerry                  9      10      11      11      13
Gephardt               5       3       6       6       5
Edwards                2       1       3       1       4
Dean                  15      12      10       6       5
Sharpton               1       1       1       1       1
Graham                na       -       2       1       1
Moseley-Braun          1       -       2       1       2
Kucinich               -       1       2       -       1
Clark                  7      10      na      na      na
DK/NA                  6       8       8       8       8




2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Approve 45% 80% 21% 44% 52% 40% 42% Disapprove 50 16 74 49 44 54 53 DK/NA 5 4 5 7 4 6 6



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Approve 52% 44% 60% 51% 50% 54% 51% Disapprove 36 46 26 36 38 33 36 DK/NA 12 10 13 12 12 13 13



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Approve 60% 49% 73% 59% 59% 62% 64% Disapprove 22 36 11 22 27 18 22 DK/NA 17 15 16 18 14 20 14



6. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                        
                     DEMOCRATS..................................................
                                                 Mod or
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Lib    Consrv 18-34  35-49  50-64  65+


Lieberman 28% 22% 32% 23% 31% 39% 30% 23% 18% Kerry 14 16 13 12 15 12 17 13 15 Gephardt 8 9 7 6 8 4 6 12 8 Edwards 3 4 2 4 3 1 6 2 3 Dean 23 23 22 28 19 12 22 28 29 Sharpton 1 1 2 1 1 - 1 2 3 Moseley-Braun 3 1 4 6 1 4 5 2 - Kucinich 1 2 1 1 2 - 3 2 - Clark 9 16 5 9 9 11 7 9 11 DK/NA 10 7 12 9 10 17 3 9 14



7. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                        
                     DEMOCRATS..................................................
                                                 Mod or
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Lib    Consrv 18-34  35-49  50-64  65+


Clinton 36% 23% 44% 38% 34% 40% 38% 40% 23% Lieberman 18 19 17 15 19 21 21 14 13 Kerry 9 10 8 5 11 6 11 9 8 Gephardt 5 7 4 5 4 2 5 6 7 Edwards 2 3 - 2 2 1 2 2 2 Dean 15 15 15 22 11 8 12 17 26 Sharpton 1 2 1 - 2 2 - - 3 Moseley-Braun 1 - 2 3 - 4 - - - Kucinich - 1 - 1 - - 1 - 1 Clark 7 12 3 5 8 7 5 8 9 DK/NA 6 7 6 4 7 9 3 5 9



8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Clark 42% 10% 71% 38% 39% 44% 43% Bush 48 86 20 49 53 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 3 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 6 4 5 8 4 8 7



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Clinton 42% 7% 72% 39% 34% 49% 45% Bush 50 89 19 51 57 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 2 3 3 DK/NA 4 2 4 4 4 3 4



10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Lieberman 49% 12% 79% 47% 44% 53% 50% Bush 43 84 14 41 47 39 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 4 3 4 6 4 4 4



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Kerry 47% 11% 76% 46% 43% 50% 45% Bush 46 86 16 45 50 42 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 2 5 6 3 6 6



12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Gephardt 43% 9% 72% 41% 38% 47% 44% Bush 48 86 20 48 54 42 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 3 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 4 5 8 3 8 6



13. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Dean 44% 10% 73% 41% 40% 47% 45% Bush 48 85 21 48 54 43 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 4 5 9 4 8 6



14. Christopher Dodd will be up for re-election in 2004. Would you like to see Christopher Dodd re-elected Senator, or would you rather see someone else elected Senator?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds


Yes/Dodd 54% 36% 71% 53% 53% 55% 58% No/Someone else 35 55 19 34 38 33 34 DK/NA 11 9 10 12 9 12 7