October 17, 2002 - Republican Has Big Lead In Connecticut House Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Leads Democrat Even In His Old District
Republican U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson leads Democrat U.S. Rep. James Maloney 56 - 38 percent in Connecticut's newly-formed Fifth Congressional District, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. This measure of likely voters includes voters who are leaning towards one of the candidates.

Rep. Johnson leads 57 - 35 percent among women and 54 - 41 percent among men. She is ahead 86 - 10 percent among Republicans and 53 - 39 percent among independent voters, while Rep. Maloney leads 71 - 25 percent among Democrats.

Johnson leads 61 - 32 percent in her old district and leads 51 - 44 percent in Maloney's old district.

"With less than three weeks until election day, Rep. Nancy Johnson has a comfortable lead over Rep. Maloney. She is running much stronger in her base of voters than Maloney. She has a commanding lead in her old district and is edging Maloney in his old district," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.

"Unlike the vast majority of House races, the voters know both candidates.

"By a better than 2-1 margin, voters in both districts have a favorable view of Johnson. Maloney does not fare as well as he receives only a 39 - 25 percent favorability rating in his own district," Dr. Schwartz said.

"Johnson is taking 25 percent of Democrats from Maloney's Democratic base. While he is picking up only 10 percent of the Republican vote. The largest voting bloc, independent, is going 53 - 39 percent for Johnson.

Johnson's favorability is 53 - 20 percent, with 20 percent mixed and 4 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Maloney has a 32 - 26 percent favorability rating, with 33 percent mixed and 7 percent who say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Terrorism and national security should be a higher priority for the U.S. right now than the economy and jobs, voters say 48 - 37 percent.

By a 45 - 41 percent margin, voters in the Fifth Congressional District want the Republican party to control the House of Representatives, much lower than Johnson's margin over Maloney.

From October 6 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 398 likely voters in Connecticut's Fifth Congressional District, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

4. Is your opinion of Nancy Johnson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Favorable 53% 75% 32% 50% 51% 55% 49% 57% 41% Unfavorable 20 7 34 22 24 17 19 22 35 Mixed 20 14 25 23 18 22 22 19 20 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 7 3 5 3 8 1 3 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 1



5. Is your opinion of James Maloney favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Favorable 32% 8% 59% 34% 34% 31% 39% 26% 45% Unfavorable 26 43 7 25 25 26 25 27 19 Mixed 33 34 28 35 29 37 33 34 28 Hvn't hrd enough 7 11 5 5 10 5 2 11 6 REFUSED 2 4 2 - 3 1 2 2 1



6. If the election for Congress in your Congressional District were being held today, would you vote for James Maloney, the Democrat or Nancy Johnson, the Republican 6a. (If undecided/wouldn't vote/someone else) As of today, do you lean more to Maloney or Johnson?

                        LIKELY VOTERS(Includes leaners).......................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Maloney 38% 10% 71% 39% 41% 35% 44% 32% 55% Johnson 56 86 25 53 54 57 51 61 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - 1 1 DK/NA 6 4 5 8 4 7 5 7 6



7. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice) or might you change your mind before the election?

                          LIKELY................
                          Maloney     Johnson
                          supporters  supporters


Very sure 79% 80% Might change 20 19 DK/NA 1 2



8. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (candidate choice), or more a vote against (other candidate)?

                          LIKELY................
                          Maloney     Johnson
                          supporters  supporters


For candidate 65% 80% Against other candidate 26 14 DK/NA 9 6



9. Which candidate for Congress, James Maloney or Nancy Johnson, do you think has stronger leadership qualities?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Maloney 24% 5% 46% 26% 23% 25% 30% 19% 35% Johnson 57 83 35 53 58 57 46 69 50 NO DIFF(VOL) 7 5 6 9 7 7 11 4 6 DK/NA 11 6 12 11 11 11 13 9 10



10. Which candidate for Congress, James Maloney or Nancy Johnson, do you think cares more about the needs and problems of people like you?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Maloney 33% 8% 58% 36% 35% 31% 38% 28% 49% Johnson 51 79 25 46 48 53 45 56 33 NO DIFF(VOL) 8 6 9 8 7 8 9 7 10 DK/NA 9 7 9 9 9 9 8 9 8



11. Which candidate for Congress, James Maloney or Nancy Johnson, do you think is more honest and trustworthy?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Maloney 22% 5% 42% 22% 24% 20% 25% 19% 32% Johnson 45 72 23 39 40 48 40 49 33 NO DIFF(VOL) 16 10 14 21 21 12 17 15 16 DK/NA 18 13 21 18 15 20 19 16 19



12. Which candidate for Congress, James Maloney or Nancy Johnson, do you think has better experience?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Maloney 15% 8% 27% 14% 16% 14% 20% 11% 20% Johnson 64 81 49 63 62 67 52 76 53 NO DIFF(VOL) 12 6 13 17 14 11 18 7 17 DK/NA 8 6 11 7 8 8 10 6 10



13. Which candidate for Congress, James Maloney or Nancy Johnson, do you think shares your views on issues that are important to you?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Maloney 33% 8% 65% 33% 37% 30% 39% 27% 51% Johnson 51 79 24 47 48 53 44 57 29 NO DIFF(VOL) 10 8 5 14 9 10 10 10 13 DK/NA 7 5 6 7 6 7 7 6 7



14. James Maloney has said that he will serve only one more term in Congress because of term limits pledge he made. Does this make you more likely to vote for Maloney, less likely to vote for Maloney, or doesn't it have much effect one way or the other?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds
                        
More likely              6%    4%    7%    7%    6%    6%    6%    7%    6%
Less likely              7    10     7     4     6     7     8     6     8
Doesn't have much
 effect                 85    85    84    86    84    86    83    87    83
DK/NA                    2     1     2     3     3     1     4     -     3




15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Rowland is handling his job as Governor?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Approve 62% 90% 36% 57% 64% 60% 62% 62% 44% Disapprove 29 6 52 32 30 29 28 30 47 DK/NA 9 4 12 10 6 11 10 8 9



16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Approve 64% 93% 35% 59% 64% 63% 60% 67% 51% Disapprove 29 6 55 32 32 27 33 26 41 DK/NA 7 2 10 8 4 10 8 6 8



17. Which of these should be the higher priority for the nation right now - the economy and jobs or terrorism and national security?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Economy & jobs 37% 18% 52% 43% 39% 36% 36% 39% 44% Terrorism & security 48 66 36 40 47 48 48 47 38 DK/NA 15 16 13 16 14 16 16 14 18



18. Which party would you like to see control the United States House of Representatives after the 2002 elections - the Republican party or the Democratic party?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Republican party 45% 89% 9% 35% 50% 42% 42% 48% 31% Democratic party 41 6 83 43 42 41 43 40 52 DK/NA 13 5 8 22 8 17 15 12 17



19. How important will control of the United States House of Representatives be in influencing your vote for Congress: Is it the most important factor, is it one factor among many, or doesn't it affect your vote?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                                            Old Dist    Union
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   5th   6th   HsHolds


Most important factor 11% 15% 15% 6% 15% 8% 12% 10% 14% One factor among many 54 57 55 52 52 56 54 54 50 Doesn't affect vote 33 27 28 40 31 35 31 35 33 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 - 4