June 23, 1999 - Bush Or Dole Top Gore In Connecticut Presidential Run, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Bush All But Certain To Win GOP Primary
Connecticut voters pick Texas Gov. George W. Bush over Vice President Al Gore 52 - 37 percent in a presidential matchup, and choose former Red Cross director Elizabeth Dole over Gore, 48 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac College Poll released today.

Bush would beat former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley 49 - 36 percent, while Dole would get 43 percent to Bradley's 41 percent, a statistical tie, the independent Quinnipiac College Poll finds.

But Bradley doesn't get past a Democratic Primary in Connecticut, where Gore wins 47 - 37 percent.

In a Gore-Bush matchup, men back Bush 59 - 32 percent, while women vote for Bush 47 - 40 percent.

In a Gore-Dole matchup, men vote for Dole 48 - 37 percent, while women back Dole 48 - 39 percent.

"Don't count Bill Bradley out. In a Connecticut Democratic Primary, Bradley is within striking distance of Vice President Gore," said Quinnipiac College Poll Director Douglas Schwartz.

"Connecticut went for Bill Clinton in '92 and '96, but at this point his Vice President, Al Gore, would lose to either Gov. Bush or Mrs. Dole.

By a 43 - 16 percent margin, Connecticut voters have a favorable opinion of Bush, with 21 percent mixed and 20 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Favorability ratings among other Republican presidential contenders are:
                          Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Lamar Alexander              5%             23%          13%         59%
Gary Bauer                   3              10            5          82
Patrick Buchanan            11              51           19          19
Elizabeth Dole              40              19           25          16
Steve Forbes                17              30           24          28
John Kasich                  6               7            6          81
John McCain                 23               5           14          57
Dan Quayle                  11              57           23           8
Bob Smith                    5               7            7          80

Favorability ratings for Democratic presidential contenders are:
                          Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Gore                        22%             31%          29%         17%
Bradley                     27               6           14          53



"The Vice President has the difficult task of overcoming a somewhat negative image. It might be better for Gore if he had started with a blank slate," Schwartz said.

"Bush has made a great first impression, but it's still a long way to the election.

"Among the other Republican contenders, only Dole has a good favorability rating, while Buchanan, Forbes and Quayle have negative ratings and the others have very low recognition among voters," Schwartz said..

Bush owns the Republican Primary in Connecticut hands down, with 53 percent of the vote. The closest contender, Dole, gets 14 percent and no other candidate tops 8 percent.

From June 15 - 21, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,496 Connecticut residents who say they are registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac College Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President in the year 2000 -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 24% 30% 25% 21% 27% 22%

Some 38 39 39 36 37 38

Only a little 28 24 28 31 26 30

None at all 10 7 7 12 9 10

DON'T KNOW/NO ANSWER - - - - - -



7. Is your opinion of Vice President Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? * Question wording was "Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?"

                                                                        Oct 22*
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    1998


Favorable 22% 8% 40% 20% 21% 23% 30%

Unfavorable 31 51 11 31 38 26 25

Mixed 29 25 33 30 26 32 30

Haven't heard enough 17 16 15 18 15 19 13

Refused 1 1 1 - - 1 1



8. Is your opinion of former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 27% 26% 29% 26% 38% 17%

Unfavorable 6 8 5 5 7 5

Mixed 14 16 13 13 16 12

Haven't heard enough 53 50 52 55 38 66

Refused - - - - - -



9. Is your opinion of former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 5% 6% 4% 6% 6% 5%

Unfavorable 23 23 27 21 28 18

Mixed 13 16 12 12 15 11

Haven't heard enough 59 54 57 62 50 66

Refused - - - - 1 -



10. Is your opinion of Family Research Council Chairman Gary Bauer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 3% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3%

Unfavorable 10 9 13 7 13 7

Mixed 5 8 3 4 4 5

Haven't heard enough 82 79 81 85 80 84

Refused - - - 1 1 -



11. Is your opinion of Political Commentator Patrick Buchanan favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 11% 15% 6% 11% 11% 10%

Unfavorable 51 48 59 49 58 44

Mixed 19 22 15 20 18 19

Haven't heard enough 19 14 20 19 11 25

Refused 1 1 - 1 1 -



12. Is your opinion of Texas Governor George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 43% 70% 22% 40% 45% 40%

Unfavorable 16 3 29 16 16 16

Mixed 21 15 25 23 18 23

Haven't heard enough 20 12 24 21 19 20

Refused - - 1 - 1 -



13. Is your opinion of former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? * Question wording was" Is your opinion of Elizabeth Dole favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?"

                                                                        July 2*
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    1996


Favorable 40% 52% 29% 40% 36% 43% 33%

Unfavorable 19 10 29 19 24 16 10

Mixed 25 23 27 24 24 26 13

Haven't heard enough 16 16 15 16 16 16 43

Refused - - - - - - 1



14. Is your opinion of Businessman Steve Forbes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 17% 24% 8% 17% 22% 13%

Unfavorable 30 26 37 28 34 26

Mixed 24 28 21 25 25 24

Haven't heard enough 28 22 33 29 19 36

Refused - - 1 1 - 1



15. Is your opinion of Ohio Congressman John Kasich favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 6% 13% 4% 4% 9% 5%

Unfavorable 7 5 10 6 10 4

Mixed 6 7 5 5 7 5

Haven't heard enough 81 75 81 84 74 86

Refused - - - - - -



16. Is your opinion of Arizona Senator John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 23% 33% 17% 22% 34% 14%

Unfavorable 5 6 7 4 7 4

Mixed 14 14 16 13 16 12

Haven't heard enough 57 47 60 60 42 69

Refused - 1 - - 1 -



17. Is your opinion of former Vice President Dan Quayle favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 11% 21% 5% 10% 12% 10%

Unfavorable 57 40 72 58 59 56

Mixed 23 29 16 23 23 22

Haven't heard enough 8 10 7 8 5 11

Refused 1 1 1 1 1 1



18. Is your opinion of New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 5% 5% 4% 6% 6% 4%

Unfavorable 7 8 7 7 10 5

Mixed 7 8 7 7 8 6

Haven't heard enough 80 80 80 80 76 84

Refused - - 1 - - -



19. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Vice President Al Gore 37% 6% 73% 34% 32% 40%

Texas Governor George W. Bush 52 90 18 53 59 47

SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 2 DON'T KNOW/NO ANSWER 7 3 6 8 5 9



20. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley 36% 9% 65% 34% 37% 35%

Texas Governor George W. Bush 49 84 20 48 51 47

SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 3 DON'T KNOW/NO ANSWER 12 6 10 14 9 14



21. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat and former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Vice President Al Gore 38% 14% 68% 35% 37% 39%

Former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole 48 78 25 47 48 48

SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 3 2 WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 5 5 3 DON'T KNOW/NO ANSWER 7 3 4 10 7 8



22. If the election for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley the Democrat and former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley 41% 20% 64% 40% 49% 35%

Former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole 43 69 24 40 36 48

SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 2 WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 3 3 DON'T KNOW/NO ANSWER 11 8 8 14 10 13



24a. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote?

                          Registered Democrats


Tot Men Wom

Gore 47% 39% 52%

Bradley 37 46 31

SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1

WON'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1

DON'T KNOW/NO ANSWER 13 11 15



24b. (If registered Republican) If the Republican Primary for President in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, Family Research Council Chairman Gary Bauer, Political Commentator Patrick Buchanan, Texas Governor George W. Bush, former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole, Businessman Steve Forbes, Ohio Congressman John Kasich, Arizona Senator John McCain, former Vice President Dan Quayle, and New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith, for whom would you vote?

                         Registered Republicans


Tot Men Wom

Alexander 7% 7% 6% Bauer - 1 - Buchanan 2 1 2 Bush 53 56 50 Dole 14 11 17 Forbes 5 5 5 Kasich 2 2 1 McCain 8 13 3 Quayle 2 - 3 Smith 1 1 - SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - WON'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 DON'T KNOW/NO ANSWER 7 4 9