February 7, 2007 - Giuliani, McCain, Clinton In Florida Horse Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Results Close To Clinton's Razor-Thin Lead In Ohio
In an early look at the 2008 presidential race in Florida, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has a razor-thin 47 - 44 percent lead over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, while Sen. Clinton edges Arizona Sen. John McCain 47 - 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

These results are close to those in a January 30 poll of Ohio voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, where Clinton squeaks past McCain 46 - 42 percent and edges Giuliani 46 - 43 percent. In other Florida results:
  • Clinton tops former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 52 - 34 percent;
  • McCain gets 42 percent to 40 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a tie;
  • McCain gets 43 percent to 42 percent for 2004 Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards, a tie.
In a Democratic primary race, Clinton dominates with 49 percent, followed by 13 percent for Obama and 7 percent each for Edwards and former Vice President Al Gore.

Giuliani gets 29 percent of Florida Republican primary voters, with 23 percent for McCain, 14 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 6 percent for Romney.

"Rudolph Giuliani runs very well in Florida, which is considered to be a socially conservative state, despite his support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Whether that is because they don't know about his stand on those issues or don't care will be the key question as the campaign unfolds."

By a 60 - 20 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 50 - 21 percent for McCain;
  • 51 - 39 percent for Clinton;
  • 37 - 18 percent for Obama, with 44 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion;
  • 44 - 27 percent for Edwards, with 27 percent who haven't heard enough;
  • 46 - 47 percent for Gore;
  • 26 - 48 percent for Gingrich;
  • 75 percent haven't heard enough about Romney.
While Giuliani gets a 40 - 36 percent favorability among Democrats and a 59 - 20 percent positive among independent voters, Clinton gets a big negative 15 - 77 percent among Republicans and a 43 - 43 percent split among independent voters.

"Sen. Clinton must win more of those swing voters who decide elections in Florida, the ultimate swing state," said Brown.

"The fact that Sen. Obama and John Edwards do as well against McCain as Sen. Clinton bears watching in the months ahead, as we measure these lesser-known contenders against Giuliani and other Republican candidates."

President Bush's Approval

Florida voters disapprove 60 - 35 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. The war in Iraq is the most important problem facing the country today, 45 percent of voters say, followed by 7 percent who list terrorism and 6 percent who list immigration.

Voters disapprove 63 - 30 percent of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq and oppose 60 - 34 percent the President's plan to send 22,000 additional troops to Iraq.

From January 29 - February 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,003 Florida voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey includes 387 Republicans and 386 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points,

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and click on Institutes and Centers, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore, Tom Vilsack, Joe Biden, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark and Dennis Kucinich for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS 
                        Tot     Men     Wom 


Gore 7% 9% 6% Vilsack - - - Biden 2 1 3 Edwards 7 12 4 Richardson 3 3 3 Clinton 49 40 55 Obama 13 8 15 Dodd - 1 - Clark 1 3 - Kucinich - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 1 DK/NA 13 16 11



2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Jim Gilmore, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki and Tom Tancredo for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        Tot     Men     Wom


Giuliani 29% 24% 34% McCain 23 31 15 Romney 6 5 6 Gingrich 14 17 10 Hunter - - - Brownback 1 - 1 Thompson 2 3 1 Gilmore - - - Hagel - 1 - Huckabee - - 1 Pataki 2 1 2 Tancredo - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 DK/NA 19 13 24



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Clinton 44% 6% 81% 39% 36% 51% 27% Giuliani 47 90 13 45 52 42 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 3 1 1 DK/NA 7 2 5 11 8 5 6

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Clinton 47% 46% 30% 28% 60% Giuliani 48 46 61 58 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 4 1 1 2 DK/NA 2 3 8 13 10

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Feb 7   May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24
                        2007    2006    2006    2006


Clinton 44 42 41 41 Giuliani 47 49 52 50 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 7 6 6 5



4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Clinton 52% 12% 93% 42% 43% 60% 36% Romney 34 75 4 34 40 29 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 5 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 9 9 3 16 11 8 8

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Clinton 54% 53% 39% 42% 67% Romney 37 37 43 42 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 1 DK/NA 5 7 14 11 10

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Feb 7   May 30
                        2007    2006


Clinton 52 50 Romney 34 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 9 8



5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Clinton 47% 9% 86% 37% 38% 54% 32% McCain 43 84 8 46 52 35 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 7 3 5 11 7 6 6

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Clinton 47% 44% 34% 42% 62% McCain 47 43 52 49 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 3 2 0 DK/NA 2 7 9 6 9

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Feb 7   May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24
                        2007    2006    2006    2006


Clinton 47 42 42 38 McCain 43 48 48 53 SMONE ELSE 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 7 6 6 7



6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Obama 40% 8% 73% 35% 35% 44% 26% McCain 42 80 11 44 48 36 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 3 4 6 DK/NA 13 7 12 17 12 14 13

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Obama 43% 36% 36% 24% 51% McCain 41 49 43 49 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 4 7 1 DK/NA 9 10 15 18 16



7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Edwards 42% 8% 76% 38% 37% 47% 32% McCain 43 84 10 42 47 39 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 3 5 DK/NA 11 4 11 18 13 10 4

North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Edwards 43% 39% 35% 31% 56% McCain 42 45 50 52 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 5 1 DK/NA 10 12 11 11 12



8. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 51% 15% 87% 43% 44% 57% 33% Unfavorable 39 77 6 43 47 33 56 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 6 11 6 9 9 REFUSED 2 3 1 3 3 1 1



9. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 37% 19% 53% 38% 36% 37% 25% Unfavorable 18 33 7 15 21 15 28 Hvn't hrd enough 44 47 39 46 42 47 46 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2



10. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 50% 71% 30% 59% 57% 45% 51% Unfavorable 21 9 37 15 21 22 22 Hvn't hrd enough 24 17 30 23 17 30 26 REFUSED 4 3 3 3 6 2 1



11. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 60% 83% 40% 59% 62% 58% 68% Unfavorable 20 3 36 20 20 20 13 Hvn't hrd enough 17 12 21 17 13 21 17 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 4 1 2



12. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 13% 26% 3% 14% 16% 11% 14% Unfavorable 11 3 18 11 12 10 6 Hvn't hrd enough 75 70 77 73 71 78 77 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 2



13. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 44% 22% 64% 44% 41% 47% 36% Unfavorable 27 48 11 26 33 21 35 Hvn't hrd enough 27 27 24 28 22 31 27 REFUSED 2 3 1 1 5 1 2



14. Is your opinion of -- Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 46% 14% 73% 45% 41% 50% 30% Unfavorable 47 79 21 48 55 41 66 Hvn't hrd enough 6 6 6 5 3 8 3 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1



15. Is your opinion of -- Bill Richardson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 17% 14% 20% 17% 21% 14% 8% Unfavorable 11 16 8 13 13 9 16 Hvn't hrd enough 70 69 70 69 63 77 76 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 4 - 1



16. Is your opinion of -- Chris Dodd favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 11% 6% 14% 14% 12% 11% 10% Unfavorable 15 20 10 19 19 12 16 Hvn't hrd enough 72 73 74 65 68 76 73 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 1 2



17. Is your opinion of -- Chuck Hagel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 9% 9% 10% 9% 11% 7% 3% Unfavorable 12 19 9 7 14 10 15 Hvn't hrd enough 78 72 79 83 74 82 81 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1



18. Is your opinion of -- Duncan Hunter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 1% 4% Unfavorable 8 6 7 11 8 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 89 90 90 84 86 91 88 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 2 - 1



19. Is your opinion of -- Dennis Kucinich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 7% 2% 11% 9% 9% 6% 3% Unfavorable 19 27 11 23 25 14 19 Hvn't hrd enough 73 70 77 66 64 80 77 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 3 - 1



20. Is your opinion of -- George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 15% 22% 8% 20% 17% 14% 15% Unfavorable 22 17 23 27 26 18 15 Hvn't hrd enough 61 60 66 52 54 67 70 REFUSED 2 1 3 1 3 1 -



21. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 20% 12% 28% 19% 20% 20% 9% Unfavorable 22 35 12 23 26 19 26 Hvn't hrd enough 57 53 59 56 52 61 64 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 2 - -



22. Is your opinion of -- Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% Unfavorable 7 6 7 9 6 7 9 Hvn't hrd enough 90 89 91 89 91 89 87 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1



23. Is your opinion of -- Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 7% 13% 5% 2% 8% 5% 8% Unfavorable 11 9 15 11 12 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 82 78 80 86 78 85 82 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 - -



24. Is your opinion of -- Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 26% 50% 8% 26% 32% 21% 37% Unfavorable 48 27 63 53 48 49 38 Hvn't hrd enough 24 21 28 19 18 29 23 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1 2



25. Is your opinion of -- Sam Brownback favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 3% 5% 1% 4% 5% 2% 7% Unfavorable 10 8 12 9 11 8 8 Hvn't hrd enough 86 86 86 86 83 89 85 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 -



26. Is your opinion of -- Tom Vilsack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 3% 1% 6% 3% 4% 2% 3% Unfavorable 8 9 7 10 11 6 12 Hvn't hrd enough 88 89 86 85 83 92 85 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 -



27. Is your opinion of -- Tom Tancredo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 5% 6% 4% 6% 7% 4% 6% Unfavorable 7 5 9 6 7 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 87 88 85 87 85 89 86 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 1



28. Is your opinion of -- Tommy Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 6% 9% 4% 6% 9% 4% 7% Unfavorable 10 12 13 8 11 10 9 Hvn't hrd enough 83 79 83 85 79 86 83 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 - 1



29. Is your opinion of -- Wesley Clark favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 12% 7% 14% 16% 18% 7% 9% Unfavorable 21 31 14 23 24 18 20 Hvn't hrd enough 66 62 71 60 56 75 70 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1



34. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Approve 35% 79% 8% 24% 38% 33% 54% Disapprove 60 17 90 69 56 64 41 DK/NA 5 5 1 8 6 3 5

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * - also hit 35% on 4/20/06

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Feb 7   Dec 21  Oct 11  Jul 27  Jun 29  Sep 23  Feb 7 
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2004    2007 * 


Approve 35 38 37 39 38 50 35 Disapprove 60 59 59 58 60 47 60 DK/NA 5 3 4 3 3 3 5



35. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Right direction 29% 66% 9% 17% 32% 27% 40% Wrong track 63 27 86 75 59 67 50 DK/NA 7 7 5 8 10 6 10



36. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?

                        Tot


War (Iraq) 45%

Terrorism Total 7% Terrorism general 5 Security/Safety 2

Immigration 6%

Economy Total 5% Economy general 2 Minimum wage too low 1 Cost of living 1 Business leaving/ Outsourcing 1

Healthcare/Costs/ Ins/HMO's 5%

Ethics/Morality/ Values Total 3% Lack of Ethics/ Morality 1 Lack of religion 2

Foreign Affairs Total 3% Foreign affairs/ policy general 1 Priorities s/b at home, not abroad 1 Middle East 1

Politicians Total 3% Political corruption 1 Bush administration 2

Education Total 2% Education general 1 Funding education 1

Abortion 1 Crime/Violence general 1 Energy costs general 1 Environment/Pollution 1 Poverty/Homeless 1 Senior issues 1 Social security 1 Taxes general 1

Other 7 DK/NA 2



37. Which political party do you think can do a better job of handling that problem the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Republican 32% 80% 2% 21% 37% 28% 45% Democratic 44 5 82 41 39 48 33 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 12 9 9 21 13 12 12 DK/NA 11 7 7 16 12 11 11



38. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Approve 30% 70% 6% 18% 32% 28% 47% Disapprove 63 22 92 70 58 68 45 DK/NA 7 8 1 12 10 4 8

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                        Feb 7   Oct 11  Jun 29  May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24  Nov 16
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2005  


Approve 30 34 36 36 34 41 31 Disapprove 63 61 59 60 63 54 64 DK/NA 7 5 5 4 4 5 5



39. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Right thing 38% 78% 13% 29% 41% 36% 53% Wrong thing 57 18 84 63 54 61 41 DK/NA 4 3 3 7 5 3 6

TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Feb 7   Oct 11  Jun 29  May 24  Apr 20  Feb 24  Aug 31
                        2007    2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2005  


Right thing 38 37 38 37 36 42 41 Wrong thing 57 58 55 58 58 51 53 DK/NA 4 6 6 5 6 6 6



40. Do you support or oppose Bush's plan to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Support 34% 71% 7% 29% 40% 29% 45% Oppose 60 23 89 61 52 66 46 DK/NA 6 6 4 10 7 5 9