December 20, 2007 - Florida Likely Voters Back Clinton, Giuliani In Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Huckabee Surges To Second Place Among Republicans

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New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 2 -1 among likely Democratic presidential primary voters in Florida, while former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is hearing the footsteps of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee coming on strong among likely Republican primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Clinton has 43 percent of the vote in the Democratic field, with Sen. Obama, her closest competitor, at 21 percent and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 19 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Another 9 percent are undecided.

Among Republican likely voters, Giuliani gets 28 percent, followed by Huckabee with 21 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 20 percent, Arizona Sen. John McCain with 13 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson with 8 percent and 6 percent undecided.

"Iowa and New Hampshire may be close races, but at this point Florida is a runaway for Sen. Hillary Clinton, while Mayor Giuliani will have to pick up the pace to hold onto his shrinking lead," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"This is the first poll where we've shifted from registered voters to the more narrowly defined likely voter category, so comparisons with past polls are limited. But Huckabee has emerged as a factor in the GOP field no matter how you count it, largely on strong support from white Evangelical Christians.

"Clinton, meanwhile, has a larger lead on the Democratic side, and a lead which appears more solid."

Among Democratic likely voters, 57 percent says it is "not too likely" or "not likely at all" that they will change their minds.

Only 40 percent of Republicans say it is "not too likely" or "not likely at all" that they will change their minds.

"Most Republican voters have not completely locked onto a candidate, so Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney all remain in play in Florida, and McCain could stage a comeback," Brown said.

"Anything is certainly possible, and the early primaries have historically been influential on later voting states. But it is difficult to see Sen. Clinton's lead in Florida as anything but huge. Given that there are few undecided voters, for Sen. Clinton to lose Florida, a sizable percentage of those committed to her will have to change their minds - not a likely scenario."

From December 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 397 Florida likely Democratic primary voters, and 397 likely Republican primary voters, each with a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?

1a. (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, or Richardson? * This table includes Leaners.

                        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                        Tot     Men     Wom


Biden 3% 4% 2% Clinton 43 38 47 Dodd 2 1 2 Edwards 19 23 16 Gravel - - - Kucinich 1 - 1 Obama 21 21 21 Richardson 2 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 9 9 9

TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................................
                        Dec 20  Dec 5   Oct 25  Oct 10  Sep 12  Aug 8   Jul 23
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Biden 3 2 1 2 1 2 2 Clinton 42 53 43 51 42 43 36 Dodd 1 - - - 1 - 1 Edwards 13 7 12 10 9 8 9 Gravel - - - - - - - Kucinich 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Obama 17 17 18 17 13 13 14 Richardson 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 Clark na na na na na na na Gore na na na na 12 11 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 3 4 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 3 1 3 DK/NA 18 15 17 14 15 15 14



2. (If express choice in Democratic Primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?

                        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                        Tot     Men     Wom


Very likely 9% 12% 6% Smwht likely 34 25 41 Not too likely 21 25 19 Not likely at all 36 38 34 DK/NA - - -



3. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote?

3a. (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Paul, Romney, Tancredo or Thompson? * This table includes Leaners.

                        LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                                                WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Evangls


Giuliani 28% 32% 24% 25% Huckabee 21 21 21 36 Hunter 1 1 1 1 McCain 13 13 14 8 Paul 2 2 2 1 Romney 20 17 23 14 Tancredo - - 1 - Thompson, F. 8 10 6 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 6 5 8 6

TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................................
                        Dec 20  Dec 5   Oct 25  Oct 10  Sep 12  Aug 8   Jul 23
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Giuliani 28 30 30 27 28 26 30 Huckabee 15 11 8 4 2 2 1 Hunter 1 1 1 - - - - McCain 10 9 14 8 10 11 10 Paul 4 4 1 2 2 - 1 Romney 15 12 12 17 11 9 9 Tancredo - 1 1 1 - - 1 Thompson, F. 6 10 14 19 17 19 18 Brownback na na 1 1 - 2 - Gilmore na na na na na - - Gingrich na na na na 6 6 5 Hagel na na na na na na na Pataki na na na na na na na Thompson, T. na na na na na 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 2 4 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 4 3 1 3 2 DK/NA 18 17 11 16 18 18 19



4. (If express choice in Republican Primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?

                        LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                                                WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Evangls


Very likely 12% 12% 11% 12% Smwht likely 45 45 45 53 Not too likely 17 17 18 15 Not likely at all 23 23 22 18 DK/NA 3 3 4 3